Yesterday, the euphoria on Wall Street broke for a while as investors paused for thought to digest crappy July retail figures. Even with the feds funneling borrowed cash into the economy and high-profile government boondoggles such as the “cash for clunkers” program working, Americans are still doing the sensible thing and cutting back on spending. July retail sales dipped 0.1%, and the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all took lumps.

Far be it for us to call an end to the party. We’ve been warning of the dangers of this rally since it began. And it looks like nobody’s been listening: stocks have continued to climb in the most dizzying Wall Street rally since the infamous bear market bounce of 1929-1930. But that’s what we do here at Notes – we bring you the other side of the economic story. So we figure we’ll plow on.

Legendary short-seller Doug Kass called a bottom in US stocks in March. He was dead on with this call. Now Kass is has turned seriously bearish on the prospect – now almost a matter of dogma in the mainstream financial press – of a V-shaped recovery.

Kass’s reasons for being suspicious of the mainstream’s recovery mantra are eminently sensible… which almost guarantees that nobody will pay any attention to them. They’re even (gasp!) realistic and based on observable facts.

1. Cost cuts are a corporate lifeline and so is fiscal stimulus, but both have a defined and limited life.

2. Cost cuts (exacerbated by wage deflation) pose an enduring threat to the consumer, which is still the most significant contributor to domestic growth.

3. The consumer entered the current downcycle exposed and levered to the hilt, and net worths have been damaged and will need to be repaired through higher savings and lower consumption.

4. The credit aftershock will continue to haunt the economy.

5. The effect of the Fed’s monetarist experiment and its impact on investing and spending still remain uncertain.

6. While the housing market has stabilized, its recovery will be muted, and there are few growth drivers to replace the important role taken by the real estate markets in the prior upturn.

7. Commercial real estate has only begun to enter a cyclical downturn.

8. While the public works component of public policy is a stimulant, the impact might be more muted than is generally recognized. There may be less than meets the eye as most of the current fiscal policy initiatives represent transfer payments that have a negative multiplier and create work disincentives.

9. Municipalities have historically provided economic stability — no more.

10. Federal, state and local taxes will be rising as the deficit must eventually be funded, and high health and energy bills also loom.

(Hat tip, MarketFolly.com)

Reason number 10 scares us, dear reader. Kass is really just stating the blindingly obvious: massive deficits will have to be paid for sooner or later, and when they do, they’ll be paid for by higher taxes.

This hike in taxes isn’t lying somewhere in the distant future, either. It’s happening right now. This from Kass:

We have already witnessed the start of what is likely to become an avalanche of changing tax policy. New York City imposed its first sales tax increase in 35 years (rising from 8.375% to 8.875%), and, on the same day, the state of New Jersey imposed an additional tax hike on wholesale liquor distributors’ sales of liquor and wine, which is sure to be passed on to the consumer. In Oakland, Calif., even the “high life” is being taxed as the city has recently passed a tax on marijuana sales and the state of California appears to be close in following Oakland’s example.

This is just the start of a nascent and broad trend toward much higher taxes, a growth-impeding and P/E-diminishing secular development

Kass not only identifies the obvious when it comes to the future of the US tax regime, but he also hits the nail on the head (in our humble opinion, at least) when it comes to the future of US stocks.

The market optimism that we are now experiencing in the expectation of a clean handoff of the baton of stimulation from the consumer (2000-2006) to the government (2008-???) might be more short-lived than many believe, as the price of stimulation, regardless of whether it’s source is the private or public sector, holds the promise of being more of a growth-retardant. With the debt super-cycle continuing apace (but in a public sector context), the fragility and inherently unstable “balance of financial terror” argues for a not-so-benign and extremely volatile stock market future.

Unquestionably, the animal spirits have been in full force as shorts are scrambling to cover and many more are joining the ever more vocal and growing bullish chorus. But to me, the margin of safety is becoming ever more thin as the enemy of the rational buyer – namely, optimism – reaches new heights.

In summary, since a self-sustaining economic recovery appears doubtful, I do not believe that we have started a new bull market. Rather, it is more than likely that economic growth will disappoint in late 2009/early 2010 as the domestic economy confronts many of the emerging secular challenges discussed above.

*** Here’s Kass’s model portfolio as of June 2009. Interestingly, he recommends holding 29% in cash… a very smart move in our opinion, considering the state of the markets right now.

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