12 Thoughts On The Economy In 2012…
Nov 17th, 2008 | By Andy Carpenter | Category: Financial NewsAs we near the end of the week when IDE editors offer you predictions – and actionable ideas – on the next four years, here are a handful of my thoughts on the world of 2012… assuming, that is, the Mayan thing with 2012 doesn’t come true… something about 12-21-12.
1) Back in 2008, the sky may have been dark, but those who reached for it are 2012’s biggest winners. They were the people who kept feeding their retirement plans and investment accounts… these were people who understand that fear, like euphoria, is a transient emotion.
Of course, the difference between fear and euphoria is that people in the midst of a euphoric event know that it’s likely their joy will eventually become tempered.
But, people who are filled with fear think it’s a permanent state – a world without end – a place so desolate that no matter how many friends they recruit to join them, they’ll always feel alone.
2) Delisted from the NYSE in 2009, after trading on the American Stock Exchange with other outlaw stocks, Ford (NYSE:F) and GM (NYSE:GM) now trade on the pink sheets.
3) A small company called Barotex Technologies made big news in 2010 when its high-tech fabric was adopted for wide use on auto bodies.
4) In 2012, everyone wants a piece of Vietnamese stocks or they’re buying into the hot luxury housing markets in Chu Lai and Hoi An City. If it hasn’t happened yet, an American named Henry Fahman is about to become famous for his exploits in Vietnam.
5) China’s massive infrastructure spending will push the shares in Hong Kong-based KHD Humoldt Wedag past $40 by late 2010.
6) Though he named Hilary Clinton to the Supreme Court and admitted that $80 oil is “good for world peace,” President Obama is reelected by handily turning back the GOP’s Newt Gingrich/Robert Gates ticket.
7) By the way, as the people of 2012 will attest, $80 oil is good for world peace. It keeps the Russian, Iraqi, Saudi, Iranian and Brazilian economies cooking and stable. Nobody, besides extremists, is really mad at anyone as long they’re making money.
The United States has cut its oil use by 15%, but that’s not a big deal because China and India picked up the demand slack.
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9) The Canadian oil sands are pretty much shut down, except for the natural gas element. A greener world – led by the Obama administration’s example – discovered it didn’t need costly oil that is harvested in such an environmentally pernicious manner.
10) Psychologists still can’t explain the phenomenon, but sometime in late 2009 the concept of being happy became separated from money and the stock market. When asked whether or not they were happy, Americans simply said “yes” or “no” without first consulting stock prices.
11) By 2010 FOX News is 20 hours a day of paid infomercials and four hours of actual faux-news-entertainment … two hours of O’Reilly followed by two hours of Hannity.
This programming was aimed at what became known as the US Appalachian Belt. The rest of the country, outside the belt, was generally content. There, people read Kindles, or watched FOX TV’s House… then rushed to WebMd to check their symptoms.
12) Other than a few small, brilliant banks – such a Wainwright Bank & Trust (NASDAQ:WAIN) and its 5% dividend yield – the US banking scene is dominated by three national banks… Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), American Express (NYSE:AXP) and JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM).
13) The economic crisis of 2008 exposed credit card companies for what they are – thieving bastards. Most of them went out of business when a Democratic Party-led congress outlawed interest rates higher than 12% and capped late and over-limit fees at $15 a month.
14) A shocking thing happened on the way to a mortgage crisis. In the past four years, only 5% of all mortgages written before Jan. 1, 2008, have defaulted. In the end, lots of nice people, who once thought federal mortgage help was the same as welfare, ended up taking some help themselves.
It seems unemployment got a bit out of hand back in 2009, so lots of people needed a brief hand out. The Proverbs’ warning, “Pride goeth before the fall,” saw a brief, but popular, revival in the first half of the year.
15) By 2012, most Americans (even some in the Appalachian Belt) agreed that the middle class and their mortgages did not cause the great economic upheaval of 2008. We agreed that the prevailing environment – outrageous arrogance at the top of corporate and political America – trickled down and made it easier for us to blame each other than to blame those who purveyed corporate and political avarice and greed.
In 2012, for some reason, the US is a much happier place. Except for the mushroom cloud of hate that continues to rise from the Appalachian Belt, the shouting has stopped. We finally learned that most people do not invite the bad things that happed to them. Today, as a culture, we save more and consume less. We no longer let mass-media prophets and self-serving politicians pit us against one another… we refuse to allow them to infect us in the way they made our parents bitter and scared.
Back in 2008, we had a choice.
In the end, we chose to exorcise from our culture the ghosts of those who peddle petty selfishness. No one takes Ayn Rand or long-dead Austrians as the gospel anymore.
In 2012, we now argue about important things, like what led the Cubs to blow the 2011 World Series to the Red Sox… which is more boring, the National Football League or The World Series of Poker… and, will Harry Potter kick his crack cocaine addiction… seems the series didn’t die after all.
Source: Keep Your Head To The Sky
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