Barry L. Ritholz of BigPicture.com has an interesting piece today about historical Dow selloffs.

Ritholz charted the 15 biggest one-month Dow selloffs. Turns out there’s often a healthy snap-back 6 and 12 months after significant one month sell offs.

Out of the 15 selloffs there were 13 cases of a snap-back. Except in 1973 and 2001, where even larger losses came a year later.

So the odds are US stocks good turn good again soon.

Rick Prendergraft in Investor’s Daily Edge thinks the momemtum is still bearish, however.

The problem is the long-term trend is still to the downside. The bearish crossover of the 10-month and 20-month moving averages on the S&P that I pointed out in last week’s article is just getting started.

I look for a mild rally over the next week or so, and then when the earnings start rolling and falling short of expectations, the selling will resume. Not all companies will get hit, as some will beat expectations and some will rally because the expectations are so low that they can’t help but go up. Overall, I look for earnings to disappoint as a whole and the low from March on the S&P will be taken out over the summer.

Historically, over 60 percent of companies beat their earnings expectations. In Q1, only 48 percent beat expectations. I would expect more of the same this quarter.