5 Things You Need to Know about Paulson’s Bailout Plan
Sep 23rd, 2008 | By Justice Litle | Category: Featured, Financial NewsMake no mistake: we are in uncharted territory. Hank Paulson wants $700 billion of taxpayer’s money to buy up bad debt and ‘rescue’ the markets. Some lawmakers strongly opposed to the plan.
“The free market for all intents and purposes is dead in America,” said Senator Jim Bunning, Republican of Kentucky, on Friday.
Justice Litle says the plan is a minefield for investors. He says there are five things you need to know about the government bailout and what it means for your portfolio.
This from Taipan Publishing:
1) The bailout is one of staggeringly massive proportions.
As I write to you in the wee hours of Monday morning, prior to my transatlantic flight, the number being bandied about for the size of the bailout is $700 billion. Keep in mind, too, that this is an opening number. It doesn’t necessarily include relief for upside-down homeowners, strapped consumers, foreign banks or many other potential “extras” that could be added to the tally.
And yet, all by itself, $700 billion is a breathtaking number. How breathtaking, you ask?
- $700 billion is more than four times the cost of the Savings & Loan bailout in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s.
- As Dan Herszenhorn of the New York Times points out, $700 billion is “more than $2,000 for every man, woman child in the United States.”
- The bailout is roughly equal to what has been spent (so far) on the Iraq war, and more than a year’s annual budget for the Pentagon.
What’s worse, the terms of the bailout give the Fed and Treasury unprecedented power. In a single stroke, America has trashed its reputation as a bastion of free-market principles… possibly beyond repair.
It is so bad, in fact, that the finance minister of Italy is making fun of us.
“Greenspan was considered a master,” Italian moneyman Giulio Tremonti says. “Now we must ask ourselves whether he is not, after bin Laden, the man who hurt America the most. … It is clear that what is happening is a disease. It is not the failure of a bank, but the failure of a system.”
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2) You will still be able to go short.
A lot of questions have been swirling around the shorting ban proposed by multiple countries.
The UK has banned shorting until January. Australia has banned shorting entirely. The SEC in the U.S. has temporarily banned shorting on nearly 800 financial stocks. Other countries are getting in the act, too.
This knee-jerk reaction to the crisis is utterly stupid and pig-headed. But rather than go on a rant and risk missing my plane, here’s what you need to know: You will still be able to go short via the use of options.
In America at least, many stocks are still shortable outright. And even for those on the “banned list,” they haven’t outlawed the purchase of put options — option contracts that allow an investor to profit when a stock goes down. So don’t worry about that aspect of things. In spite of the ferocious rally we saw late last week, versatility will still be a virtue in this market. You’ll still be able to go short.
3) Global growth is still the place to be (as opposed to U.S. exposure).
If you thought last week’s rally in the Dow and the S&P was impressive, you didn’t catch an eyeful of what happened in emerging markets.
It was the biggest move in 20 years for many markets, with Russia and Brazil leading the way. While the Dow booked gains in the neighborhood of 3%, a number of other indexes (like Brazil’s Bovespa) picked up triple that.
The long and short of it is, global growth is still the place to be. The U.S. still has to deal with a belt-tightening consumer, even if the beleaguered and battered banks have now gotten a free pass from Uncle Sam… But with coordinated central bank efforts and new cash flooding into markets all over the globe, it’s much more likely to be “back in the pool” global growth stocks.
We’ve seen evidence of this, too, in Safe Haven Investor, the newsletter I recently took over as editor. On Monday I recommended a high-quality South American growth stock with a fat dividend yield. That pick is up more than 10% from our buy price in less than 10 days.
4) Savers will be punished.
The sad fact is, this bailout is all about saving borrowers from themselves and punishing risk takers in the process. If you were leveraged up to the eyeballs and loaded to the gills with debt, then the Paulson-Bernanke plan is a godsend… like a helicopter coming to pull you off the roof of your house as the floodwaters sucked at your ankles.
But if you actually avoided this whole mess by shunning excess risk and keeping a good amount of cash in the bank, then guess what – it’s upstanding citizens like you who get to pay for the whole thing. The money to make the bailout happen will ultimately come from one place: the pockets of the American taxpayer.
Some will say it’s not necessarily a given that the taxpayers will lose money on this bailout deal… that it’s possible everything works out and that the $700 billion doesn’t go up in smoke. Maybe we’ll get our money back, or at least a portion of it.
But the people who say that are also the ones who never thought we would get here in the first place. And it’s hard to see the difference, in principle, between a Bear Stearns or a Lehman Brothers assuring me I’ll get my money back vs. Uncle Sam doing the same thing. Shouldn’t it be up to you and me to decide who we write checks to?
As the dollar craters in the coming months, and the cost of living rises, savers will continue to be punished. Money in a mattress is decidedly no good at this juncture. Cash is most definitely NOT king, in the sense that paper money just gets more and more worthless when the printing press is chugging away like there’s no tomorrow. That’s what it’s doing now.
5) Invest or go broke.
“Invest or go broke” might be a harsh way to put things, but these are harsh times in more ways than one.
By pledging to crank up the printing press and bail out everyone in sight, Paulson and Bernanke have ginned up a paper tornado of sorts. Think of the crazy action we saw last week, with the markets down hundreds of points and then flying sky-high on news of the bailout.
There is an old saying, “In a tornado even the turkeys will fly” — meaning even lousy stocks will go up in the right market conditions. Right now we could be headed into a scenario where everything but the kitchen sink catches a bid, with paper asset inflation swamping all other conditions.
This is a very dangerous environment to be in for holders of cash and money market funds. Costs of living go through the roof, too, and the meager returns on interest bearing accounts can’t keep pace. This is the type of environment Marc Faber talked about when he said (paraphrase) “Sure the Dow can go to 20,000… But if that happens, gold will go to $6,000.”
When the turkeys are flying and paper asset inflation is roaring, you almost have to be in the game – and invested in the right things – just to keep the inflation monster from eating everything you own.
Source: Bailout Nation: Five Things to Know About What Happens Next
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Justice Litle is Editorial Director for 
I think we should re-christen the TARP as Troubled Relief Asset Plan, or TRAP. This would be a more accurate descriptive acronym for it.
Good stuff Justice Litle. It is amazing how everyone has missed the simplicity of this crisis. This was a private sector problem and it is private sector champions who are now trying to pass the buck to the little guys, and to the government!!!
The crisis was caused by poor lending practice by financial institutions, who allowed garage based agents to source mortgages on their behalf. Commissions were paid to these people if the mortgagors did not default within the first 3 months, after which the mortgages were packaged into bonds and sold to the investing public. 3 months? A seasoned mortgage? The investors were foolish to buy these bonds. The credit rating agencies should be sued for negligence. How could a bond with mortgages that were only seasoned for 3 months attract an investment grade rating? No way! But the investor was foolish for relying on the rating agencies alone for comfort. Don’t forget, these investors (the institutional ones who now want to be bailed out) are supposed to be intelligent! They’re paid 6-7 figure salaries, so you would expect them to at least do some of their own research and homework before investing in these securities surely! How did they miss the junk bond status that they truly deserved??????
Then there is Henry Paulson! What a lazy, juvenile solution he and his cohorts have come up with! The problem is that it will not solve the huge overhang of houses sitting vacant and unsold. It will not relieve the downward pressure on house prices. It is this downward pressure on house prices that scares the banks and the consumers, not the toxic MBS’s (”mortgage backed securities” for those of you who aren’t familiar with the term).
It would be much simpler, more efficient and effective for the government to buy the foreclosed properties, rather than the whole security package. (They could then use some of these houses to meet some of their social welfare responsibilities/needs.)
To properly value the whole mortgage backed security requires something like 3,000 mortgages to be separately valued for each security they seek to purchase (i.e., the mortgages that constitute each security line), which would be very, very time consuming, costly, rarely accurate and not transparent.
Rather, to buy the properties that have been foreclosed would be easier to value and would be more transparent. Not only this, but this approach would underpin housing prices and provide a boost to confidence in the real economy, which is the outcome that is sought by the less direct, less efficient, less effective and more morally corrupt approach being proposed by Paulson and his bunch of merry men (who also appear to be as overpaid as the investment managers who failed to recognise the risk inherent in the MBS that they were buying-oh! I forgot. It’s the same people!!!!!!).
Last two points made me question the whole article. We will see how inflation will be over the next year when Oil goes down along side wheat, the two main drivers of this years inflation.