8 Reasons Why the Bailout Bill Will Fail
Oct 2nd, 2008 | By Shah Gilani | Category: Politics & EconomicsThe buzz on Capitol Hill is that Congress could pass an updated version of the bailout bill before the end of the week. But Shah Gilani in Money Morning says taxpayers are being “force-fed a political solution, instead of a sound economic market-based solution to a financial crisis.” He says the the bailout bill has eight key failings.
In plain English, here’s what’s wrong with the proposed plan and what alternatives should be immediately vetted and constituted into a new plan.
The Treasury plan was originally predicated on buying $700 billion of collateralized residential mortgage-backed securities that banks could not unload. The idea was that the banks would get the money, which they could then turn around and lend to keep the credit markets open and credit flowing throughout the economy. In the meantime, the Treasury Department would sit on the securities until it is able to sell them, hopefully at a profit.
The idea, from a theoretical standpoint, isn’t stupid. It is, however, impossible to implement to any degree that will result in its intended effect.
Here’s why:
- There are more than $1 trillion worth of subprime collateralized mortgage-backed securities out there - and that’s just one type of problematic derivative security. The bottom line: $700 billion isn’t enough. Period.
- The purchase plan is not limited to just residential mortgage-backed securities. Surprise! What else will Treasury buy?
- Who’s going to fight off the lobbying groups out to influence the managers that the Treasury Department hires to direct money to their masters? Did we mention that $700 billion wasn’t enough?
- The government plan is even more under-funded than people realize, for it doesn’t authorize the full $700 billion: Indeed, it starts with only $350 billion, leaving an even greater shortfall. Did we mention that $700 billion wasn’t enough?
- Treasury is going to hire banking-industry managers to manage the process. Those managers are going to serve themselves - just as they served themselves to get us into the crisis.
- There is no defined mechanism to determine what price the Treasury Department will pay for what it buys. For argument’s sake, even if Treasury were to only buy the problem securities its leadership speaks of in public - residential mortgage-backed securities - there are problems if it prices them too low: If that happens, some holders won’t sell them, taking the chance that if they hold them long enough they will be worth more than Treasury is willing to pay. How will those financial institutions regain liquidity if they won’t sell the securities needed to make this happen?
- Since Treasury can’t buy all the problem securities, if it prices what it’s going to buy too low, all remaining holders will have to mark down their holdings and take more write-downs and losses. How will that create confidence and facilitate “liquidity”?
- However, if the Treasury Department prices the securities too high, several problems quickly emerge: Hedge funds will rush to sell their current holdings, and may very well speculate by buying up more securities to sell them at a higher price (profit) to Treasury, meaning that the Treasury Department plan won’t necessarily be helping banks directly. What’s more, if those securities are priced too high, and the market for them continues to fall, taxpayers will eat the losses - a reality that likely will lead to an end to further program funding.
Shah says top of the list of solutions to the current mess should be the following:
- Regulation.
- The nature and existence of problem securities.
- A means of accurately and transparently pricing those problem securities.
- A cleanup of attendant problem instruments (credit default swaps) that are massively contributing to the problem and - in and of themselves - are sinking the U.S. economy.
- The need to facilitate an accounting aide - short of eliminating mark-to-market accounting - by directly addressing how banks can still hold these problem securities and not have to incur unrealistic write-downs and losses.
- A means of allowing problem securities to be used as collateral when borrowing from the Fed.
- A method of helping homeowners directly.
- A strategy that will support the housing market with sensible tax and capital gains policies.
Source: Heads I Win, Tails You Lose: Why the Senate Bailout Bill Will Fail Taxpayers
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1. the face value of the underlying securities is not what the bill is meant to insure. the goal of the bill is to bring *real money* investors back into the market place, in order to bring irrational prices back to normalized levels.
2. why would it be limited just to RMBS? there are many securities that are mispriced. the treasury will (and should) participate in any market that undervalues the true value of the assets.
3. you honestly think blackrock can be bribed? haha… fail. did i mention that focusing on the face value of the securities is a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation?
4. the treasury would *not* need to use up their entire line of credit on the first day. did i mention that focusing on the face value of the securities is a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation??
5. wow. the treasury is hiring the most respected illiquid security evaluation and analyzing firm to evaluate and analyze illiquid securities. author of the story proposes hiring mcdonalds workers instead? fail!
6. the purchase price should be above fire-sale value (to encourage participation) but below the cash flow sustainability of the securities themselves (to benefit the taxpayer).
7. the banks that were prudent and didn’t try to hide things under the rug will benefit. anyone who tried to hide their problems will now have to face the consequences. confidence is restored in those who were up-front and honest.
8. already covered in #’s 6 and 7.
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) should not be covered in the bailout. A speculative derivative designed for leveraging and gambling that should be borne by the wise-guy participants ALONE.