A ‘History Making Crash’
Oct 23rd, 2008 | By Contrarian Profits | Category: FeaturedThis is what it looks like when the shit hits the proverbial fan. In this case, the shit being one subprime meltdown, eight years of a monkey in the White House and and $1 trillion in chaotic government hand outs. The fan being everything just about everything else. Yesterday, the talismanic Dow plunged 514.
– The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index did even worse. The S&P 500 was the worst performer among the major indexes. It shed a whopping 6.1% and hit its lowest level since April 2003. The fear and loathing on the Street is palpable.
– Today, U.S. stock futures slipped thanks to what normally chirpy MarketWatch calls “the brutal economy that companies are navigating.” S&P 500 futures edged 2 points lower to 900.80 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 7.25 points to 1,240.70. Dow industrial futures rose 5 points.
– Agora Financial’s Chris Mayer, one of the smartest contrarian investors we know, is quoted on Addison Wiggan’s 5 Min. Forecast blog as saying: “What we are going through now is a history-making crash. There is a reason it caught so many people by surprise — it hasn’t happened before, not quite in this way.”
– Addison also quotes Bill Bonner. Bill has been calling this crash for years in The Daily Reckoning. His “trade of the decade” — sells stocks, buy gold outlook — now looks like a very wise move. Bill says we about to be hit with a protracted bear market combined and a deep recession.
“When Mr. Market goes into a sulk, he takes a long time to come out of it. Real bear markets last 10… 15… 20 years. Judging by the meltdown in the financial sector and the rapid losses we’ve seen over the last three weeks… we have a real bear market on our hands…
“With no more easy credit available to them, consumers are doing what they have to do — they’re cutting back. How much? For how long? No one knows the answers to those questions, but our guess is this: more and longer than you thought.”
– We didn’t expect permabear Nouriel Roubini to be calling a bottom. But we didn’t expect such a bleak prognosis either. Roubini spoke yesterday morning on CNBC. Henry Blodget on Clusterstock summarizes Roubini’s breakdown of the coming financial Armageddon:
# The worst is yet to come.
# The next few weeks and months are going to have lots of negative surprises on the economy
# The flow of market news is going to be much worse than expected–just like last week when every piece of news was awful
# Earnings are going to surprise on the downside. There’s going to be a sharp fall in earnings, not just financial sector, but everywhere.
# Even in financial system, where we avoided a systemic global financial meltdown by an epsilon, there will be significant risk downward. Emerging markets going into a crisis. Having a blow up of the CDS market. Having hundreds of hedge funds closing down.
# So I significant downside risk for the financial markets and economy. I think the worst is yet to come.
– Blodget says yesterday’s wipeout in the stock market was a good thing, because it means the market is behaving rationally.
Trading down on profit warnings is a pretty rational and even normal response to economic news. The reason that’s good news is that it means we’re not just experiencing mysterious problems in credit markets or some new financial innovation no one ever heard of exploding all over the markets.
– Argentina, where the ContrarianProfits offices are based, is royally screwed by the looks of things. The hugely unpopular president President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has announced she will seize pension funds. Cristina, ever the populist, claims the move is to “protect” people’s money. The reality is she plans to use the funds’ $29 billion to meet the country’s spiraling financing needs. The Argentine stock exchange, the Merval, plunged as much as 18% on the news.
– Addison Wiggan’s take on it in The 5 is dead on.
Beset with debt and overcome by its bond obligations, the Argentine government nationalized $30 billion in private pension funds yesterday.
Fifty-five percent of those pensions are government debt holdings… and now that Argentine leaders have seized them, they can essentially write them off. The rest of the holdings they’ll use to finance debt payments and keep the government running.
Argentina is the second largest economy in South America. It is one of the world’s top five exporters of beef, soy, corn and wheat. It still can’t afford to keep the lights on. Argentine citizens are being asked to suspend reality and trust the government is good for the money when they’re ready to retire.
Hmmmn… puts us in mind of that ’70s-era Rainbow rock ‘n’ roll tune “Can’t happen here, can’t happen here. All that you fear, they’re telling you, can’t happen here.”
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