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American Spring, Indian Steel

Apr 19th, 2008 | By Andy Carpenter | Category: Gold Market

Today, I am going to start running the first of the many opinion pieces you sent in last week. There’s more below on the mechanics of that and how you too can get into the game.

In fact, I nearly decided to skip the writin’ part myself this week and leave the heavy lifting to your contributions, because you guys are smart and I have caught a bad case of Spring Fever.

Chances are you have it too. As I write this (Thursday afternoon), with the exception of a small swath of the US Midwest, we here on our side of the equator are under the influence of glorious spring weather.

Here in Boston, we may hit 70 degrees for the first time in something like 175 days. But I won’t brag too much, because I am sure IDE readers under the equator are grooving on some spectacular autumn weather. Still, in lieu of bagging it altogether this week, I’ll be rolling down the windows for today’s ride.

I have spent most of the day, as I do a couple times week, running through a spreadsheet of my projected valuations for about 200 companies that trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

And before you get the idea that I am going to use that as a sleazy no-value-to-you entry point to talk about my newsletter, let me dissuade you of that idea, immediately.

Like you, I quickly tire of email gabbers who offer nothing more than lame ideas that somehow are shoehorned to fit their high-dollar newsletter’s point of view.

I read one recently – all the way through – that was making some truly ridiculous points about the power of micro-cap investing. And sure enough, after making it appear as if the Pink Sheets were a secret market stocked with nothing but profit whales, the author closed by referring me to a penny-stock service.

One, I assumed that has done what no one else has – found a way to make billons of dollars off of the Pink Sheet garbage pile… and if I don’t subscribe today I’ll die a penniless wretch… hey, maybe I have a future as a copy writer.

WARNING: SHAMELESS SHILL AHEAD – Of course, that’s what I really like about IDE. Yes, missives from Charles, Lynn, Rusty, Andy Gordon, and Rick contain advertising but – and it’s a big BUT – 99% of the time you’ll not find a self-serving word among that crowd.

You get free stuff… actual professional market insights… with an absolute minimum of hassle.

So anyway, back to my spreadsheet. I was digging though my HKEx forward valuations, which you can buy for a zillion dollars because it’s only stocked with whales, and I started noodling around steel company valuations.

A warm breeze was wafting through my office windows and next thing you know I was naked with daisies in my hair romping on the front lawn singing, “When the moooooon is in the seventh house and Jupiter aligns with Mars… Leeettttt the sunshine, Leeettttt the sunshine in, the sunshine in.”

Whoops. I mean the next thing you know I was looking at the global steel industry as a whole.

I found something interesting that pertains to the Indian steel industry.

It looks to me as if Indian steel stocks are headed toward some very attractive gains after suffering a pretty stiff correction during the past three or four months.

The best I can figure, most of that dive was due to misplaced fears of weak earnings caused by robust raw-commodity prices.

And, while costs are an issue, I think Tata Steel and Steal Authority of India (SAIL) are due for a nice bounce… 15% to 20% over the short term.

In fact, they may even be sweet long-term value plays considering that they trade at about a 35% discount to their global peers. On top of that, it looks like India’s government is set to step in and regulate prices… but in favor of state-owned SAIL. That means, at a minimum, jacked up prices could help all Indian steel outfits with second- and third-quarter earnings.

This, at worst, should create a solid short- to medium-term low-risk/high-reward scenario for investors.

Now, as promised, a word about the Saturday IDE opinion challenge, which is a very simple concept.

Since we’re more relaxed here on the weekend, I thought it would be a great place for you to share your opinions… but, not in the usual two-line “hey a**hole,” way, but in the longer sign-your-work way.

So, we’re opening up the spigot for your opinions… as long as they are decently well-thought and not more than 350 words long you’re in… I’ve got about 12 queued now… and as I said last week, don’t worry if you’re punctuation and grammar shy – I got people (me) to give you a hand up there.

So, pen your opinion, paste it into the reply tab down below, and I’ll work my way through them and publish one to two a week, at minimum.

Easy!

See you next week. I’ll be the one with the big smile and the sunburn.

Now, let’s turn things over to Bob then Kevin, both of whom show you just how easy it is to make a good, engaging argument… I am hearing footsteps.

Lock and load.

Andy

P.S. To let me know what you thought of today’s article, send an e-mail to: feedback@investorsdailyedge.com.


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By Andy Carpenter

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Andy Carpenter is a contributor to Investor's Daily Edge.

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Investor's Daily Edge is a free investment e-letter delivered every day before the market opens. In each issue you'll receive clear recommendations and practical strategies for protecting your portfolio and multiplying your money, whether the market is rising or falling.

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