With the markets closed today in observation of President’s Day, we can take a little while to clear our heads. We will need it, since the next four days are chocked full of reports.

The first set of announcements to pay attention to are the housing figures for January, which come out simultaneously on Wednesday morning. Both the Building Permits and Housing Starts are expected to post declines from December.

Last month, both reports missed estimates by about 50k units. I’ve got to think that this month will come in lower than estimates by at least that amount. It seems no matter how low the estimates, the housing market will still disappoint.

On Thursday, we have the PPI and Core PPI figures for January.  For the first time since last July, expectations are for an increase in the PPI. This could be due to a number of factors, such as an increase in energy prices, but the concerning one would be inflation. Could the Fed monetary policy finally be catching up with us? Time will tell.

The same holds true for the CPI estimate that is announced on Friday along with the Core CPI reading. For the first time since last July, the CPI reading is expected to increase. Since this reading includes energy costs, it could be simply due to the slight increase in gas prices recently. That would be the preferred reason, anything but dreaded inflation.

The final report of interest this week is the Philadelphia Fed announcement on Thursday. Unfortunately, the report is expected to show further decline in the manufacturing sector in the Tri-State area. In order for the economy to turn around, every manufacturing report, including this one, needs to start showing an increase in production.

Source: Are We Starting To See Inflation Creep Up?