Ajit Dayal is a contributor to The Honest Truth. Ajit has over 20 years of experience in asset management, financial research and analysis. In addition to founding the Advisor in 1990, he has worked with leading US and UK financial advisory and asset management firms.
Plan your investment strategy well. And keep your eyes on the lesson that Hanna and other storms have taught us: Be prepared to duck the strong winds of a direct hit. But be equally prepared to surf the waves that are caused by a rising tide of a hurricane that makes landfall somewhere else.
“All I know”, the philosopher Socrates said, “is that I know nothing.” And so it is true for most of us. We know nothing, but we can imagine we know a lot. How many of us “knew” that oil would rise from USD 70 to USD 150 in less than one year? Or that the price of rice or wheat or gold would rise the way it has risen – in the time horizon that it has.
Now that China has proven to the world that it is possible to spend an obscene amount of money to build stadiums and buildings; use software to create fake fireworks; and use a playback singer to sing the Olympic welcome song – can India be far behind?
In the mornings, I glance at the book of inspirations in my father’s room. It is strategically placed above the TV set from where the chants of stock market movements are pelted out. The thought for August 17th reads: “Reality is always open to revision – My choice plays a key role in whether I accept the world as it is or alter it to suit my desires.”
“Bindra ends 108 year wait” proclaimed the DNA headline. And indeed it was a day to celebrate. But there was another not so golden bit of news. The price of gold, which began the year at USD 834 per troy ounce, peaked at USD 1032.7 on March 17, 2008, and slipped to USD 818.63 on August 11, 2008, the low for the year. Year to date, gold has declined (-)2%.
It would be safe to say that the stock markets are in a Brownian motion when observed on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis. They move in any direction.
The novice enters the stock markets looking for a quick buck. Many quick bucks. The investors who have been burnt before, approach their investment portfolios with more caution.
So, July 22 has come and gone. The United Progressive Alliance got through a vote of confidence motion. Just about. It has not gone. The media keeps on writing that the majority was better than expected. Better than expected is not saying much in our view.
“In the future”, noted the famous pop art icon Andy Warhol, “everyone will be famous for fifteen minutes.” Mr. Warhol was not setting the time limit of “fifteen minutes” because there were so many famous people in a queue who were waiting to become famous.