Why you must buy this “world dominator” The Daily Crux

World Bank chief takes a shot at the Fed WSJ

How well has the Federal Reserve served America? Naked Capitalism

Andy Xie: Why one bubble bursts deserves another Caijing

David Rosenberg’s special report Zero Hedge

3 ways to profit from a CRE collapse The Daily Crux

Gold: What’s next? Zero Hedge

Why Michael Moore hates capitalism Time

Chicago Fed index lower in August Calculated Risk

Throughout the “sh*t hitting the fan” events of last fall, and the subsequent policy response, we’ve listened intently on what this Canadian had to say. The picture he paints today is one of bearish conviction. That’s exactly the reason he’s come under recent criticism as his ilk of ivory tower economists have started calling an end to this recession.

Though we don’t think he has anything to prove, he released a special report reaffirming his key points. You can read it in full here. But if you don’t have the time to peruse the twenty-two page (slightly wonkish) document, we’ve broken down the basic takeaway for you.

The equity markets have moved too far, too fast, and a correction is coming. Rather than buy into this rally, you should look at commodities. That’s because David believes that since 2001commodities took off on a secular bull market run.

Also, rather than hold US dollars, Rosie bets that the Canadian buck is a safer bet due to Canada’s smaller national debt (26% of GDP vs. 62% in the US), smaller budget deficit (-3.4% of GDP vs. -11.2% in the US), stronger banking sector (no Canadian bank needed a bailout), lower unemployment, and an economy more reliant on commodity exports like lumber, oil, natural gas and precious metals.

But the scariest–for holders of US dollars—forecast Rosie makes is that the US has yet to use a power policy tool: the devaluing of the greenback.

As Obama continues to take pages out of FDR’s playbook, he’s yet to devalue the dollar as FDR did in 1933. Rosenberg doesn’t say that the US policy wizards will directly devalue the dollar. Rather, he thinks it will happen by the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and the creation of freshly printed dollars.

We think he’s dead on about this call. The US’s “strong dollar” policy has become the latest oxymoron to enter the American vernacular. There is only one direction the value of the US dollar is going over the long-term—down.

Where exactly should you invest amidst this economic malaise? Here are the seven places to park your cash. Not surprisingly, our favorite precious metal tops the list.

1.) Gold

2.) Commodities

3.) The Canadian dollar

4.) Resource sectors of the stock market

5.) US sectors that have high foreign exposure (materials, tech, staples, healthcare)

6.) Canadian sectors that benefit from lower import costs (consumer stocks) but lose export competitiveness (manufacturers)

7.) Canadian bonds (a higher Canadian dollar will keep inflation low, hence reinforcing positive fixed income returns)

Physical demand was also supportive for the precious metal, traders said, who saw the jewellery demand picking as as the festive period in India, one of the top gold consumers of the world, approches.

Spot gold was at $991 an ounce by 1121 GMT, slightly up from $990.95 an ounce late in New York on Friday, when gold hit a two-week low of $984.70 an ounce.

“The stronger dollar is the reason which pushed gold below the $1,000 an ounce level,” said Eugen Weinberg, Commerzbank analyst said. “On the other hand, we’d expect a pick-up in physical demand if prices decline ahead of the festive season.”

Gold’s inverse relationship with the dollar over the past few weeks has become stronger. It is often considered an alternative asset to the greenback, while a higher dollar makes commodities expensive for holders of other currencies.

The dollar fell against the yen but rose against higher-yielding currencies including the euro and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. But the euro trimmed earlier losses to trade at $1.4655.

“The dollar feels like it has to go much lower from where it is and gold could benefit from that,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS Finance.

Over two weeeks ago, gold hit $1,023.85 an ounce, its highest in eighteen months, within a striking distance of its record high of $1,030.80 an ounce struck in March 2008.

BARGAIN HUNTERS

But bullion’s failure to stay above $1,020 an ounce level has disappointed several investors and prompted an unwinding of long positions, which in the U.S. hit a record high for a third straight week.

“We’re seeing some long liqudiation from the speculative side of the market. The major support is at $975 an ounce,” Nabavi said.

The non-commercial net long position in gold futures on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange stood at an all-time high of 236,749 lots for the week ended Sept. 22, figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

“Having said that the reason why gold is gradually falling and not crashing is bargain hunters and physical buyers are picking up the dips,” Nabavi said.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery was up 0.14 percent to $993 an ounce from $991.6 per ounce on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, the contract fell $7.30.

The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust , said its holdings stood at 1,094.107 tonnes on Friday, unchanged from the previous business day.

Silver was lower at $15.96 from $16.00

“Silver is generally vulnerable to Comex profit-taking,” said analyst John Reade at UBS in a research note. “The fact that the surge in Comex speculative longs over the past three weeks has struggled to lift silver prices further flags a specific downside risk over the coming weeks.”

Platinum was at $1,273 from $1,272.5 and palladium was at $289 from $288.

Sept 28 (Reuters)

Weaker-than-expected U.S. housing sales and durable goods orders on Friday drove U.S. stocks lower, and world and European stocks followed that trend on Monday.

Leaders of the Group of 20 rich and developing nations pledged on Friday to bring the global economy back into balance but their statement contained few surprises and investors are already looking ahead to U.S. employment data at the end of this week.

Global equities and other higher risk assets have risen sharply in the last six months on growing optimism about the economic outlook, but markets are starting to run out of impetus, analysts say.

“Investors are a little bit reluctant to add to their risk positions,” said Koen De Leus, economist at KBC Securities.

“The market is going to have a very good look at macroeconomic numbers this week. If some of these figures disappoint, then the market is going to go down further.”

Analysts are starting to question whether the global recovery is V-shaped, or if it could be W-shaped, with a second dip to come.

The MSCI world equity index <.MIWD00000PUS> was down 0.52 percent at 282.94, bringing losses since Sept 22 to 3 percent.

U.S. stock index futures , however, were indicating a slightly stronger open on Wall Street after the market scored a third consecutive day of losses on Friday.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> hit its lowest in nearly three weeks before trimming losses to 982.53, down 0.14 percent from the U.S. close.

GERMAN STOCKS UP

German stocks <.GDAXI>, however, rose 1.3 percent with particularly strong gains in utilities E.ON and RWE , on expectations of longer lifetimes for German nuclear power plants as a result of the German election.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives won a weekend parliamentary election with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDPP), enabling her to end her awkward four-year-old partnership with the Social Democrats (SPD).

“(This) government provides the greatest opportunities for equity market-friendly reforms compared to other party combinations,” said Tammo Greetfeld, equity strategist at Unicredit, in a client note.

The yen, typically regarded as a safe-haven currency, surged to an eight-month high against the dollar as Japanese officials waved off any plans to stem the currency’s rise.

The yen later gave up some gains as Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii changed gear on his comments during the course of the day, saying yen gains were becoming one-sided just hours after saying the rise was “not abnormal”.

The dollar fell as far as 88.26 yen before trimming losses to 89.35, down 0.31 percent.

However, the dollar hit a 2-1/2 week high against an index of currencies <.DXY> and a 13-day high against the euro as the U.S. currency also attracted safe-haven flows.

Funds are starting to shift money home ahead of the quarter-end later this week, analysts say.

Crude oil dipped 20 cents to $65.82 a barrel .

Euro zone government bonds also benefited from safety trades, with 10-year yields briefly hitting a one-month low.

December Bund futures were up 5 ticks, trimming earlier gains.

Sept 28 (Reuters)

Xerox Corp will buy Affiliated Computer Services Inc for $6.4 billion in a cash-and-stock deal that expands the copier company into technology outsourcing and data management.

Xerox shares fell 13.4 percent to $7.77 while ACS shot up 16.7 percent to $55.06.

Abbott Laboratories said it would buy the drugs unit of Solvay in a $6.6 billion deal, giving Abbott full control of its Belgian development partner’s cholesterol treatments and exposure to emerging markets.

Abbott stock rose 3.7 percent to $49.11.

“Deal announcements are helping the market off to a good start, especially as we had a bit of selling off last week,” said Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer at OakBrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois.

“People were waiting for a time to get in, and now, they have it.”

With Monday’s gains, the Dow Jones industrial average is up more than 15 percent for the quarter so far, which would make it its best such period since the fourth quarter of 1998.

A Jewish holiday observed Monday and the end of the third quarter two days later could translate into thin volume and volatility as fund managers reposition their assets amid fewer market participants, investors said.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 118.28 points, or 1.22 percent, to 9,783.47. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index <.SPX> gained 14.76 points, or 1.41 percent, to 1,059.14. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> jumped 35.48 points, or 1.70 percent, to 2,126.40.

GenTek Inc shares soared nearly 40 percent to $37.75 after the maker of specialty chemicals and vehicle engine components said it agreed to a takeover by a subsidiary of private equity firm American Securities LLC for $411 million in cash.

The Dutch biotechnology firm Crucell said Johnson & Johnson bought 14.6 million new Crucell shares for over $400 million as part of a flu vaccine development deal

China Unicom <0762.HK>, that country’s No. 2 mobile carrier, said Apple Inc’s popular iPhone would be sold in China starting in October at a retail price of about $730.France Telecom’s Orange also said it would sell iPhones later this year.

Apple shares edged 1.3 percent higher.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said its National Activity Index was minus 0.90 in August, down from a revised minus 0.56 in July, but its three-month moving average of economic indicators improved for the seventh straight month to its highest level since June 2008.

Sept 28 (Reuters)

The dollar gave up most of its earlier gain against a basket of currencies, boosting the appeal of oil and commodities to investors. European stocks firmed and U.S. equity futures pointed to a higher opening.

“It’s making some progress back up, largely due to the dollar,” said Rob Montefusco of Sucden Financial. “At the same time, we haven’t seen demand pick up and we need that to draw strength back into this sector at the moment.”

U.S crude was up 8 cents to $66.10 a barrel by 1308 GMT, after earlier falling as far as $65.41. London Brentwas down 11 cents to $65.00.

Iran test-fired a type of missile on Monday which defence analysts have said could hit Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf region, state television reported.

The drills coincide with increased tension in Iran’s nuclear dispute with the West, after last week’s disclosure by Tehran that it is building a second uranium enrichment plant.

Tensions over Tehran’s nuclear programme have supported oil prices in recent years. The country is the second-largest oil producer in the Middle East.

In late 2008, Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 40 percent of the world’s globally traded oil passes, when tensions rose in another row with the United States around the nuclear work.

Even so, sluggish oil demand, reinforced by some lacklustre economic data from the United States last week, continued to command investors’ attention.

“The Iranian situation is not having much influence. If it was, we’d be back towards $70 again,” said Christopher Bellew, a broker at Bache Commodities in London.

Oil prices posted their largest weekly decline in around 2-3 months last week, pressured by government data showing U.S. crude oil inventories had risen, suggesting demand remains weak.

U.S. durable goods orders dropped by the largest amount in seven months while a rise in new home sales was less than forecast, according to data from the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday.

Sept 28 (Reuters)

The most corrupt members of Congress Business Insider

The new deadly dollar carry trade will send gold to $2000 Financial Sense University

Holiday jobs look sparse WSJ

Mortgage extractions look overwhelmingly negative Calculated Risk

Sales of US homes decrease Bloomberg

Paul Volkner blasts the Goldman business model Zero Hedge

Is this a gold bubble? Daily Wealth

Doug Casey: The most important reason to own gold The Daily Crux

Traders took advantage of a dollar rally in the prior session to sell on views the Fed will signal plans to maintain loose monetary policy well into 2010.

Currency investors are also bracing for G20 leaders to discuss rebalancing the global economy this week, a process that would almost certainly require a weaker dollar.

A document obtained by Reuters showed how Washington would urge G20 leaders to launch a new push this year to get debtor nations like the United States to save more and exporters like China, Germany and Japan to spend more.

“If you take the view that too much of U.S. growth has been domestically driven, the next logical step is to say an orderly decline of the dollar — it’s not in anyone’s interest to see a collapse — in many ways makes sense,” said Tom Fitzpatrick, chief technical analyst at Citigroup in New York.

“And at the end of the day, the U.S. has a zero interest rate policy and the highest fiscal deficit in peacetime while (foreign investors) are holding a lot of dollars, so the path of least resistance for the dollar is down,” he added.

The euro was up 0.8 percent at $1.4794 after options-related demand and strong Asian buying pushed it above $1.48 for the first time since September 2008. The dollar fell 1 percent to 91.09 yen and 0.9 percent to 1.0231 Swiss francs , near a 14-month low touched earlier.

Sterling rose 1.0 percent to $1.6375 while the New Zealand dollar surged more than 2.0 percent to a 13-month high after dairy exporter Fonterra raised its estimated payout to farmer shareholders. Fonterra accounts for some 7.0 percent of the New Zealand economy.

With no major economic data on the calendar, traders said $1.4825 may be the next target in euro-dollar, with many predicting an eventual move back to $1.50.

“Every time we get to a round number in euro-dollar, we’ll probably try to chip away on the way to $1.50. But for now $1.4825 is the next line in the sand, and then we’ll have to wait and see about $1.49,” said Steven Butler, head of FX trading at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

DOLLAR IN FOCUS AT G20?

European Central Bank Governing Council member Axel Weber said on Tuesday recent moves in currency markets were “not out of line” given the euro zone’s economic performance relative to other areas.

Some said this suggested the ECB was comfortable with the euro’s level and was a green light to push it even higher, especially in light of the U.S. proposals to put fixing global imbalances on the G20 agenda in Pittsburgh this week.

But others said there is still a risk of dollar bearishness engulfing the market and selling turning into a rout.

“A discussion at the G20 on currencies, and especially the dollar, is not only appropriate but essential, as this move could accelerate swiftly,” said Maurice Pomery, managing director at Strategic Alpha in London.

Sept 22 (Reuters)

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Cap and Trade to cost Americans $1,761 News Max

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Rare earth metals booming Resource Investor

Leaders of the Group of 20 meet on Thursday and Friday in Pittsburgh and U.S. President Barack Obama said on Sunday he would push world leaders for a reshaping of the global economy in response to the crisis.

World stocks, measured by MSCI have risen over 26 percent this year, recouping more than half of last year’s losses, underpinned by repeated pledges by G20 policymakers to keep emergency support for the economy in place.

“The market might look slightly overbought near term, but the economy is definitely improving, corporate profits are definitely improving, interest rates are staying low, valuations aren’t expensive,” said Nick Nelson, European equity strategist at UBS. MSCI world equity index <.MIWD00000PUS> fell 0.7 percent, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> lost 0.6 percent.

Emerging stocks <.MSCIEF> also dropped 0.6 percent.

U.S. stock futures were down around 0.5 percent , paring losses after Dell said it would acquire Perot Systemsfor $3.9 billion. Perot System’s shares surged 66 percent in pre-market trading.

EXIT STRATEGY

The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark Fed Funds rate unchanged at 0.25 percent on Wednesday, and investors are looking for signs of how quickly it might remove its extraordinary programmes to revive lending and hiring.

While any signal that the Fed might start unwinding its loose monetary policy shows the central bank is acknowledging the recovery, it could be negative for risky assets as it could fan speculation of an interest rate hike.

The Fed has pledged to buy up to $1.45 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and debt issued by government sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by end-2009.

Concerns about weak fuel demand pushed U.S. crude oil down 2.4 percent to $70.25 a barrel after Asia’s No.1 refiner Sinopec said that diesel China continued to lag economic recovery with fuel sales so far this year still below the rates seen a year ago.

The September bund future was steady, unable to take advantage of falling equities and investors grew concerned about the prospect of euro zone and U.S. debt supply.

The dollar <.DXY> rose 0.6 percent against a basket of major currencies, after hitting a one-year low last week, while the U.S. currency rose 1 percent to 92.21 yen .

“The yen may end up being the biggest winner against the dollar. It has yet to significantly overshoot against the dollar, unlike every other G10 currency. Real yields are moving in its favour and nominal yields versus the U.S. are negligible,” Deutsche Bank said in a note to clients.

“Dollar/yen will likely break below last year’s low of 87 and could even reach 80 over the next 3-6 months.”

Sterling fell to a five-month low of 90.79 pence per euro after the Bank of England said the British currency’s long-run sustainable exchange rate may have fallen due to an increased focus on Britain’s economic imbalances following the global credit crisis.

(Reuters Sept. 21)