This from Fleet Street Invest:

If you’re looking for a new investment trend for 2009, look no further than infrastructure.

Around the world, diggers are mobilizing, cement lorries are loading up, and armies of road and rail workers and builders are gearing up for action.

From America to London, China to Chile, governments are ready to build their way out of the global recession with huge stimulus packages which will focus to a large degree on new infrastructure.

On 6 December, US President-elect Barack Obama outlined a plan to create millions of jobs in the U.S. by “making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s.”

Obama’s plans include investments in roads and bridges as well as work to make public buildings more energy-efficient, modernize schools and improving Internet-based communication and its availability around the country.

Meanwhile, here in the UK the government has also announced a £18 billion stimulus plan – with huge chunks of money for infrastructure. News agency, AFP, also reports “a massive public spending plan to pump more than $32 billion into Argentina’s infrastructure.”

A dominant investment theme for 2009

And as American colleague Chris Mayer puts it, this is a dominant theme for 2009: “Think of it as a kind of contagion. Soon every government with a slowing economy from Capetown to Moscow, from Brasilia to Bangkok, could follow suit.”

Robert Markman, portfolio manager of the Markman Global Build-Out Fund, concludes that Governments around the world “are making plans to jump-start their economies by throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at infrastructure projects”.

This could lead to a great 2009 for companies that make cement, steel, asphalt, and anything else you can think of that goes into building things. Not to mention the companies that supply the machinery which the many infrastructure projects will need to get things built.

Now’s the time to start looking for ways to play this emerging mega-trend, especially as share prices for these kinds of companies have – along with everything else – corrected so sharply in the past year, many of them now look very cheap.

So, how to play it? Well, we’ll be conducting some in-depth research here at Fleet Street on the best ways to profit from the coming infrastructure boom. We’ll pass on our best ideas when we’ve worked things through.

But we have some early thoughts that we’ll be following through to see if they stack up…

Long-term investors keen to buy into the market might consider the kind of companies that will be at the forefront of the building projects. Companies like US-listed Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) should be in great demand as building gets underway.

According to a recent report from Associated Equipment Distributors, a construction industry body, for every dollar spent on highway construction, an estimated 6.4 cents will be used toward the purchase or lease of equipment or on major repair and maintenance. The report also predicts that, 12 cents out of every dollar spent on water infrastructure projects will go towards construction equipment. That’s good news for companies like Caterpillar.

Eight months ago, Caterpillar was trading at over $85 dollars, but you can pick up shares now for a little over $45. With this kind of planned demand, Caterpillar looks pretty cheap on its current single-digit P/E ratio – one certainly worth taking a closer look at.

Closer to home, another beneficiary could be Zurich-based ABB ltd (ADR:ABB) The company is the global leader in the business of building, refurbishing, and creating the supplies for industrial, municipal, and national power supplies. It should also be a huge beneficiary of China’s $586 billion stimulus package, which is aimed at infrastructure build-out. We’ll be checking that one out, too.

As I said, we’ll be looking closely at this growing trend in the months ahead. When we have found the individual shares that we believe are best placed to deliver solid gains from the global infrastructure boom, we’ll let you know.

Battered ETFs offer an easy way in

In the meantime, consider some of the many tracker investments that have been created for exactly this kind of investment story. In recent years, there have been lots of infrastructure-related exchange traded funds (ETFs) launched. This was as a direct result of investor appetite for an easy way to play the long-term global infrastructure boom driven by emerging-markets countries.

Of course, this boom looked like it had been derailed in 2008 following the credit crunch and the huge slowdown in global growth. Suddenly, emerging markets fell out of favour.

But the smart investor will realise that this is only a temporary setback. Emerging markets will get back on track and keep emerging. And the coming stimulus shock from all around the world will keep countries building new roads, railways, bridges, schools and broadband internet infrastructure.

ETFs investing in industries including construction, engineering, utilities, building materials, industrial equipment and metals may have been battered in recent months. But they could be due a very powerful rebound in the months and years ahead.

Source: Revealed : The Biggest Investment Trend Of 2009

Often at the end of the year there’s a substantial surge in stock markets. It’s a phenomenon known as the Santa Claus Rally, on account of it occurring between Christmas and New Year. You can see it on this chart.

Some say this rush of buying is to do with people investing their Christmas bonuses. Others say it’s because the market bears are away on holiday this week – or just that there’s a general feeling of seasonal good will and happiness at this time of year.

Whatever the reason for this year-end excitement, it could be off this year.

You see, Bad Bernie Madoff has just thrown a huge spanner in the works. Or, to be more accurate, he threw it in some years ago. It’s just that it was only last Thursday that his spanner really jammed in the gears of the market machine.

Don’t stand too close, because the sparks are about to start flying… and the wheels of the machine could be about to come off. This could be what really starts the next leg off the great bear market of 2008.

It really looked like the stock market was going to end the year on a positive note – that we were in for a decent Santa Claus Rally. Since the low on 21 November at 3,734, the FTSE has staged an impressive rally of 14.5%. It’s the same for the American Dow Jones, which has notched up 13% in the last four weeks.

But now, what could be the largest financial scam in history has begun to unravel. It was designed and directed by Wall Street veteran, Bernard Madoff and his company Madoff Investment Securities LLC. He stands accused of running a multibillion-dollar fraud scheme. In fact, he admitted as much to his two sons, who went ahead and reported him.

When you look at what Madoff did, there’s nothing too sophisticated about it. He took money in from gullible investors, by promising high returns, for little risk. Then he paid existing investors out of funds provided by new investors. It’s your common or garden ‘Ponzi’ scheme or pyramid scam.

The only reason he’s managed to get away with it for so long is that we’ve been in a major bull market in stocks. With this cheery investment climate, people didn’t find it difficult to believe that Madoff was able to consistently deliver returns.

The problem was that when the whole sub prime mortgage time bomb blew up – and the current bear market took hold – investors started losing money. What did they do? They started taking money out of successful positions to pay for their losses. And they started to withdraw from Madoff’s fund. That’s when the scam started to unravel.

What’s particularly worrying about this mess is that Madoff managed to do business with large numbers of prestigious financial institutions worldwide – guys who really should have known better.

Royal Bank of Scotland is in for £400 million, HSBC have a billion-pound exposure and Spain’s Santander Group is in to the tune of £2.1 billion – although not of its own money… the money of clients it introduced to Madoff.

High profile investors were totally sucked in. “Superwoman” fund manager, Nicola Horlick, of Bramdean Asset Management, had 9% of her fund’s assets with Madoff.

“He is very, very good at calling the US equity market.” Horlick once said of Madoff. “This guy has managed to return 1 per cent to 1.2 per cent per month, year after year.”

Not this year, Nicola. And not ever again.

But of more immediate concern to us now is what is this going to do to the markets. So far, the impact has been minimal. The markets have shrugged off the implications. Maybe that’s because investors believe that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut later today will win the bull/bear tug of war. Maybe it will, temporarily.

Sooner or later, though, the full extent of this scam will be clear. Investors will start panicking about what other “good time” scams are about to go bad. It will become apparent that Madoff’s sons and a host of other conmen were in on it too (how could the old man possibly have done it all on his own?)

Investors will start pulling their money out of the stock market. That’s when the markets will start their next leg down. That’s when the Madoff effect will derail the Santa Claus Rally.

Source: Derailing the Santa Claus Rally

Make sure you have your stock market hedges in place. Until next time,

This from Fleet Street Daily:

But there is a market where you can always make profits from others’ bullishness. I’m talking about the currency, or Forex markets.

Because each currency is measured against another one, for every bear market, there has to be a corresponding bull market.

Let’s look at sterling. You’ll be aware that the pound has been a basket case these last few months. In fact, if you look at it over the last the year, it’s been smashed against every other major currency.

Against the US dollar, sterling has fallen 26%; against the euro, it’s fallen 21%; and it’s lost 23% of its value against the Swiss franc.

Which ever way you cut it, sterling’s in a bear market. But remember, Forex is a zero sum game. While the guy holding sterling has been losing money in a ferocious bear trend, the guy on the other side of each one of these trades has been raking it in.

And what really stands out is that whilst stock markets around the world have been in bear territory, one particular currency has been on fire. I’m talking about the Japanese yen. It’s outstripped all the others by going up 40% against the pound in the last 12 months.

As stock markets have fallen, the Japanese yen has soared…

Source: Bloomberg

The chart shows the Dow in red and the Japanese yen versus sterling in black.

The yen tends to be inversely correlated to stock markets. When stock markets are strong, the yen is weak, and vice versa.

This is because over the past several years, with Japanese interest rates at zero, investors have taken advantage of cheap yen-denominated loans. They borrowed in yen and bought into higher yielding investments – e.g. other currencies, stocks or commodities to earn the interest rate difference, or ‘carry’ (hence the name, ‘carry trade’).

This was all working well for investors. They were making money by borrowing cheap… and making inflated returns. In essence, they were using leverage. Meanwhile, the act of borrowing was, in effect, the same as selling yen – so naturally this pushed the yen down in value.

It was all going so well…

Everything was fine until the US housing market blew up and spilled over into other financial markets. Investors were forced to close out their winning trades in order to cover losing ones.

We have seen a huge deleveraging of financial markets – and a rush to pay back yen loans – in other words, buying yen. This has caused the yen to rally strongly – roughly in step with the stock market collapsing.

Now, when stock markets rally – i.e. when there is an appetite for risk – then the yen is sold off to fund trades. And when the stock market falls, the yen suddenly finds favour again as a “risk aversion” trade.

We’ve seen this week that President-elect Obama’s huge infrastructure stimulus proposals have got the confidence back for stock market investors. Hence yesterday’s impressive rally in worldwide stocks (and corresponding fall in the yen).

But stock markets are not out of the woods yet – the economic data is still weak.

When equities fall, expect to see the weakest global currency (sterling) fall and the strongest (yen) rise. It’s a bull market that could run for as long as the bear market in stocks.

Source: The One Place You’ll ALWAYS Find A Bull Market

Since this whole credit crunch began, investors pretty much everywhere have been hit. It doesn’t matter what sector a company is in, its share price is less now than what it was in July. But there are a couple of sectors that have really outperformed the rest of the market. And I mean “outperformed to the downside”. In other words, they’ve fallen further and faster than other sectors.

The first is no surprise. It’s the banks and other financials. It’s no surprise, because that’s where it all started.

This chart shows how financials have fallen further than the Dow Jones.

But an even more alarming sell-off has occurred in another sector: commodities. This chart of the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index demonstrates how commodities fell out of favour in July and have lost almost half their value since.

It’s worth stepping back a little to see what happened before this. Colleague, Justice Litle, in Baltimore notes:

“When the commodity bull really hit stride, it was largely based on a strong outlook for global growth. With so many emerging market countries coming of age, resource after resource was projected to be in short supply as far as the eye could see. Investors of all stripes and sizes, from institutional on down, wanted a piece of the action.”

And so we had one of the biggest bull runs in recent history.

But then, the credit crunch really hit home. As we’ve seen, it started in the financial sector… but pretty soon spread to commodities.

“The mortgage bubble popped, trust and liquidity evaporated, and credit and commerce fell off a cliff,” continues Justice Litle. “Not wanting to be left out, commodity prices jumped off a cliff too.”As investors scrambled to cover losing positions in the financial sector, they closed out winning trades in other positions. Where were their biggest winning trades? Commodities punts were certainly well up there.

As this hot money has been taken off the table, sky-high commodity prices came back to earth with a bump.

“Now, though, things have come full circle,” explains Justice. “Commodities fell so violently and so quickly, we’ve been rudely transported backwards (or perhaps forwards) to the “low prices cure low prices” part of the cycle again!”

What he means by the “low price” cure is that when a commodity gets cheap enough, producers tighten their belts. They stop going after new projects and cut back existing production. Some producers even give up altogether.

Eventually reduced supply matches up with newly reduced demand. Then things stabilize, prices fall and demand shifts upwards, and the cycle begins again.

And there’s some news just out that could set off the next leg up in the great commodities bull run.

On Sunday, China announced a huge $586 billion package to sustain its economic growth in the next two years. The 10-point plan allocates money for, among other things, affordable housing, rural infrastructure, railways, power grids and rebuilding after the devastating earthquake in May.

Expect to see further stimulus packages from other G20 nations following their scheduled meeting on 14 – 15 November.
And when all this spending to boost world economic growth starts happening over the next year or so, we could well start to see a rebound in demand for metals and grains.

Source: Kick Starting The Next Leg Of The Commodities Bull Market

This from Fleet Street Daily:

Investors tend to fixate on the stock market as a way to make money. When stock markets are in chaos, they see no way out. I’m surprised that so few investors pay attention to the currency markets. After all, in terms of volume and value, the Forex dwarfs the equity markets. But I get the feeling that’s going to change.

Currency stories are all over the financial pages at the moment — and investors are starting to realise that there’s a way to play it. For the more adventurous investor, spread betting offers easy access to a once out-of-reach market. But then not everyone is into that kind of leveraged speculation.

There are safer ways to play this new-found interest in the currency market. I’ll introduce you to a colleague who’s found a conservative way to do it in a moment. But let’s just talk a bit about context first.

The Bank of England has little choice but to cut interest rates and cut them aggressively. We could even see an emergency cut ahead of the next scheduled meeting on 5th/6th November.

That’s bad news for the pound. Money chases yield. So if the UK base rate falls from the current 4.5% to, say, 2%, then sterling becomes a lot less attractive to yield chasers.

The pound was worth two dollars in August. It’s now worth not much more than 1.5. I’ve even seen calls for year-end pound-dollar parity — one pound for one dollar. And why not? I mean already in just the last three months, the pound has fallen almost 50 cents. Why shouldn’t it fall a further 50 cents in the next two months?

When Forex trends take hold, they can run and run. And they can overshoot, just like all markets tend to overshoot. With the picture as bleak as it is for the UK economy right now, it’s got every chance of doing that.

We’ve got rapidly rising unemployment. We have a burgeoning trade deficit. The housing market will continue falling. And the whole financial crisis is drawing investors away from the UK.

“Sterling has long been particularly vulnerable because the imbalances in the UK economy — notably the dire state of households finances and the large external deficit — are just as severe as those in the US,” said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics.

And we should remember that UK rate cuts are likely to be much more aggressive than in the US. That’s because we have more room to cut. Our base rate is at 4.5% compared to the current 1.5% in the US.

Of course, this is largely priced into the cable rate already. Even so, sentiment is against the pound. We’ve seen what sentiment has done to stock markets recently. In these extraordinary times, we could quite easily see extraordinary moves.

Pound/dollar parity is certainly a bold call. But then so, it seemed, was calling the FTSE at 3,500 just a few months ago — and it’s not far away from that level right now. And colleague, Bill Bonner’s “Dow 5,000″ call suddenly looks very “on the money”.

The last time the pound came close to parity with the dollar was in February 1985, Back then, cable touched $1.02 at one point during trading. It might not get there this time, but it could certainly have another go.

Source: When Stock Markets Are In Chaos…

Whichever way you look at it, we’re in a bear market in shares. And it looks like it’s going to continue, as investors are forced into liquidating positions. This deleveraging of the markets will continue to drag the indices down.

That’s not to say you can’t make money, of course. You can always make money in the markets, if you’re a little smarter than the average investor. You’re just not going to do it by buying the indices — you need to find good quality companies that can beat the bear.

A bull market in disguise

But there’s another market that looks like a bear market at first glance, but which I believe is merely experiencing a short-term correction. In fact, it’s a long-term bull market in disguise.

I believe commodities are in a secular bull market. By that I mean that it’s a long-term bull trend — one that could last up to 25 years. Currently, we’re about seven years into it — and we’re seeing a perfectly normal correction, after prices ran away to the upside. Forced selling of profitable commodities positions to finance the mess in other sectors has dragged the sector down.

The sell-off that we have seen in commodities like oil, gold, silver and so on certainly show the characteristics of a bear market. Oil has fallen some 47% since the $147 peak. Gold and silver have dropped 22% and 51% since their March peaks. These are bear market performances.

But here’s the thing. Secular market trends are made up of multiple sequential primary trends — some bullish, some bearish. As with any market, they zig and they zag.

In a secular bull market the ‘primary’ bear markets are historically shorter and less damaging than the ‘primary’ bull markets were rewarding. Typically, the primary bear market is not deep enough to totally eradicate the inflation adjusted gains of the previous primary bull markets. Similarly, the succeeding bull markets typically make up for the losses of any previous bear markets.

So the recent sell-off in the commodities could just be a bearish zag, caused by forced selling, following the preceding bullish zig. And I believe that the next primary bull market will take out the previous highs and drive the secular bull market on.

Legendary commodities investor, Jim Rogers says: “We have had 8-9 periods of forced liquidation over the past 100-150 years wherein everything was liquidated without regard to fundamentals. This is such a period.”

Rogers believes that the current global economic meltdown will make the commodities bull market last longer. It’s currently being hit by the prospects of slowing growth in emerging economies such as China and India. But, this will ultimately affect supply and that in turn will cause prices to move higher. “The cyclical demand for commodities may slow, but the secular supply will be badly affected so the commodity bull market will last longer and go further in the end,” Rogers says.

Our own commodities expert, Garry White, agrees. In his latest research on our Fleet Street Invest website, Garry writes:

“Market conditions are setting the scene for the next leg up of the commodity supercycle. There are three things that are happening today that will guarantee higher prices for commodities in the future, once the current jitters have started to ease.”

Garry explains that all base metals prices except copper have fallen close to their cost of production. If prices fall any further, it’s likely that mines will be closed. This will cause supply to tighten and prices will rise. That could kick off the next great run.

You see this used all the time by people marketing investment books or seminars. I won’t go into the fairly long explanation I read by a China linguistics expert as to why this is not accurate. We’ll look at that another day.

What is true, though, is that often a temporary crisis can indeed lead to a genuine opportunity. Today I want to talk about one such outstanding opportunity that investors with a little sense of adventure and some spare cash should consider.

On 2 August 2007, a mini-submarine dropped a titanium capsule on the ocean floor beneath the North Pole. In the capsule was a Russian flag.

In what the New York Times labelled at the time, “an openly choreographed publicity stunt”, the Russians were making a symbolic gesture.

In a brazen display to the world’s media, they were laying claim to the Arctic’s vast oil and mineral treasures.

Almost to the anniversary of this particular gesture of war-mongering from the Russians, came another: the Russian slap-down of Georgia.

When Georgia President, Mikheil Saakashvili, launched his ill-conceived attack against the breakaway region of South Ossetia, he did so under the misguided assumption that he would have the support of Western government.

But, Western powers have been preoccupied with Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Iran. Russia took the chance to throw its weight around, knowing that no one was going to rush to defend Georgia, even if Georgia had applied to join NATO.

We’ve all seen the results. Georgia has been on our TVs and on the low-numbered pages of our newspapers for the last couple of weeks. Its troops were decimated, its tanks destroyed and its Government was shown in no uncertain terms who’s boss in the region.

What’s clear is that by attacking an American ally that was being considered for NATO membership — and getting away with it — the Kremlin demonstrated that Russia is, without any doubt, the region’s dominant power.

But nowhere in the mainstream press has there been any talk of investment opportunities in all of this. No one has been looking beyond the headlines to see how Georgia stacks up. Maybe now that the Russians are preparing to pull their troops out that’s all about to change.

Certainly, that’s what colleague Manraaj Singh’s been banking on. Tucked away in our emerging markets cubbyhole here at the Fleet Street’s HQ, Manraaj has been working on an outstanding investment idea. At last it’s ready and now you have a chance to make a very decent profit as this recent temporary crisis fades and Georgia’s excellent growth credentials start to attract smart investors once more.

Manraaj was already looking at investing in Georgia before fighting started on 7 August. In fact, he was coming back for more, having already taken profits from an investment there at the tail end of last year.

Georgia is a great growth story, as Manraaj explains:

“Georgia rarely got a mention in the press before this conflict broke out. But it’s been one of the hottest growth stories over the last five years.

“The country declared independence from the Soviet Union in April 1991. From 1995 to 2003, Georgia was led by the former Soviet Foreign Minister, Eduard Shevardnadze as President. He introduced democratic reforms. But he failed to tackle widespread corruption.

“In November 2003, he was replaced by the U.S.-educated current president, Mikheil Saakashvili at the head of coalition of reformers and democrats. Under him, Georgia has made huge strides in tackling corruption. Large swathes of the economy have been privatised. And he has taken a strong pro-Western stance.

“The reforms have had a huge impact. The economy grew by 12.4% in real terms last year. And it is expected to grow by 9% cent this year and next. The average Georgian had an annual income of just $686 at the start of the decade. That could reach $3120 by the end of this year. People in this tiny country are getting richer very, very fast.

“And foreign investment has been pouring in. The country received $1.4 billion in foreign direct investment last year. That was 30% higher than the $1.1 billion the year before.”

But the average investor hasn’t been taking note of this potential. And why would they? You never hear about Georgia — until now, that is.

And the most exciting thing is that since Georgia has been front-page news in the mainstream press, Georgia-related investments have been universally beaten down. Nothing has changed as far as long-term prospects for Georgia are concerned, as you’ll see when you read Manraaj’s report.

For a true profit opportunity coming out of a temporary crisis, read Manraaj’s essay here

Suddenly it seems that everyone wants to buy dollars. The buck has just risen to its highest level against the euro for 6 months, as traders predict that the eurozone economy is heading for protracted problems.

But don’t believe everything that you read in the press. Our man Tom Bulford’s just come back from his holidays in the Seychelles ands he witnessed first hand a different story. Read on to find out about the impressive vote of confidence he witnessed for the euro and why the dollar is no longer the king of currencies.

Ben will be back tomorrow.

Best regards,

Frank Hemsley

Source: The Tiny London-Listed Share That’s On The Brink Of Doubling In Post-War Georgia

Meantime, oil feels even more bullish… like everything is conspiring to drive this commodity higher. May futures for West Texan Crude are up another two dollars as I write to $108 and change – and the momentum seems to be building.

I’ll have more on that in a moment, as Garry White explains just why this market is on fire… and how you could profit.

Beat the stampede: tune in at 10am tomorrow for your chance to join Time Trader…

But first, I’ve got some important news for anyone looking to start shadowing the most talked about trader on our books. If you missed last month’s sign-up opportunity, get ready for another chance.

Keep an eye out after 10am tomorrow. As I mentioned in Friday’s Profit Watch, the doors are about to open up again for our Time Trader service. Based on the rush we saw last month, I’m expecting quite a stampede as ambitious traders look to get into the next trade.

I’ll tell you more tomorrow, but here’s a little “heads-up” about what this entails. I want to make sure you are one of the first to read about this opportunity when I send it tomorrow.

First up, this is not the kind of trading where you need to chain your self to your computer. All you need is a mobile phone and to meet some selection criteria to make sure you’re the right kind of investor… and you’re ready to roll.

How just one trade a month made this guy half a million pounds in six months…

You see, Robin Tracey, the mastermind behind Time Trader, makes just one trade per month. That’s all he needs. He’s been utilising this “one trade a month” work ethic for the last ten years and it has helped him become a millionaire. In fact, when we were working with Robin to launch this service, he made half a million pounds in just six months – purely from the trades he made following this strategy.

Adrenalin seekers who want the thrill of trading in and out of the market on a weekly, daily or even hourly basis, this might not be what you’re after – although you could certainly add it to your weaponry (and when you see how it works, you might just give up the manic trader lifestyle and opt for this less stressful one!)

If you’re the kind of trader who’s looking for a less stressful strategy, but with great profit potential, then tune in tomorrow… I’m pretty sure this could be what you’re after.

Profit Watch readers are top of the list – you’re the right calibre

As usual, Profit Watch readers will be among the first to see this opportunity. Robin Tracey is looking for a certain calibre of trader to join him for his next trade and I think you’re more qualified than most. I’ve got you to the top of the list – so take a look tomorrow and see if you’d like to test out this fascinating strategy for playing the markets. There’s nothing else like it that I’ve seen.

I’m quite sure you’re busy – too busy to be watching your inbox, waiting for my message tomorrow. So to make it easy, I’ll make sure I send details at 10am tomorrow – you should have it by 10.30am. Take a look and see what you think – if you like the sound of Time Trader, grab that place while it’s there. The next trade is coming very soon.

$100/barrel: a new base for oil – here’s why it could go higher…

Despite concerns about a rocky global economy, the oil price has found a floor at $100,” says Garry White of Smart Commodities. “WTI futures have hit $106.7 this morning, boosted by a small refining fire at an Exxon operation in Los Angles on Friday, continuing concerns about the dollar and the first fall in Opec output since August last year.

$106.7? That’s old news, Garry – as I write, the price is a few cents shy on $109 for May delivery.

Bloomberg reports: “Crude oil jumped more than $2 a barrel and gasoline rose to a record as investors looking for an inflation hedge and higher returns flocked to commodity markets.

Fine, so oil’s going up – that’s nothing new for regular readers of Profit Watch. We’ve been riding this trend since we launched in 2003. What we really want to know is how long can it last… and what does it mean to us as investors? How can we make money from it?

Garry White has the answer. That’s his thing – he writes about oil, gas, gold, in fact all commodities for his group of resource investors. He’s clear about oil:

Despite the threat of a global recession the oil price has remained above $100. This is not just speculation because, if it was, the oil price would have retracted with the gold price. It has outperformed gold over the last two weeks.

First-quarter earnings season kicks off in the US later day with Alcoa. When the oil companies start posting their corporate earnings I believe they will be significantly above consensus, prompting a re-rating of the sector as a whole.

What “Peak Power” means for oil…

I believe this will continue for the next few quarterly earnings reports – and possibly well into next year if “Peak Power” bites the Middle Eastern oil producers hard.

All this means great news for certain suppliers of other energies. With the oil price remaining above $100 and with subsidised fuel set to become a thing of the past… cheaper, but equally efficient, forms of energy will see a massive surge in demand.

One company I’m tipping is already doing exceptionally well and is set to go from strength to strength as “Peak Power” and reduced subsidies continue to drive up the price of oil.

So Garry’s advice to his readers right now is clear: Buy commodities – and oil in particular. If you’re looking for his specific profit plays – ones you can make easily through your own stock broker with easily traded shares – then just get on board his Smart Commodities letter. You’ll learn all about “Peak Power” and what it means for oil investors.

To find out why oil is one of Garry’s Power Trends – 5 trends that could see smart investors make an absolute killing in the months ahead – click here

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares, never risk more than you can afford to lose. Please seek independent financial advice if necessary.

Meantime, oil feels even more bullish… like everything is conspiring to drive this commodity higher. May futures for West Texan Crude are up another two dollars as I write to $108 and change – and the momentum seems to be building.

I’ll have more on that in a moment, as Garry White explains just why this market is on fire… and how you could profit.

Beat the stampede: tune in at 10am tomorrow for your chance to join Time Trader…

But first, I’ve got some important news for anyone looking to start shadowing the most talked about trader on our books. If you missed last month’s sign-up opportunity, get ready for another chance.

Keep an eye out after 10am tomorrow. As I mentioned in Friday’s Profit Watch, the doors are about to open up again for our Time Trader service. Based on the rush we saw last month, I’m expecting quite a stampede as ambitious traders look to get into the next trade.

I’ll tell you more tomorrow, but here’s a little “heads-up” about what this entails. I want to make sure you are one of the first to read about this opportunity when I send it tomorrow.

First up, this is not the kind of trading where you need to chain your self to your computer. All you need is a mobile phone and to meet some selection criteria to make sure you’re the right kind of investor… and you’re ready to roll.

How just one trade a month made this guy half a million pounds in six months…

You see, Robin Tracey, the mastermind behind Time Trader, makes just one trade per month. That’s all he needs. He’s been utilising this “one trade a month” work ethic for the last ten years and it has helped him become a millionaire. In fact, when we were working with Robin to launch this service, he made half a million pounds in just six months – purely from the trades he made following this strategy.

Adrenalin seekers who want the thrill of trading in and out of the market on a weekly, daily or even hourly basis, this might not be what you’re after – although you could certainly add it to your weaponry (and when you see how it works, you might just give up the manic trader lifestyle and opt for this less stressful one!)

If you’re the kind of trader who’s looking for a less stressful strategy, but with great profit potential, then tune in tomorrow… I’m pretty sure this could be what you’re after.

Profit Watch readers are top of the list – you’re the right calibre

As usual, Profit Watch readers will be among the first to see this opportunity. Robin Tracey is looking for a certain calibre of trader to join him for his next trade and I think you’re more qualified than most. I’ve got you to the top of the list – so take a look tomorrow and see if you’d like to test out this fascinating strategy for playing the markets. There’s nothing else like it that I’ve seen.

I’m quite sure you’re busy – too busy to be watching your inbox, waiting for my message tomorrow. So to make it easy, I’ll make sure I send details at 10am tomorrow – you should have it by 10.30am. Take a look and see what you think – if you like the sound of Time Trader, grab that place while it’s there. The next trade is coming very soon.

$100/barrel: a new base for oil – here’s why it could go higher…

Despite concerns about a rocky global economy, the oil price has found a floor at $100,” says Garry White of Smart Commodities. “WTI futures have hit $106.7 this morning, boosted by a small refining fire at an Exxon operation in Los Angles on Friday, continuing concerns about the dollar and the first fall in Opec output since August last year.

$106.7? That’s old news, Garry – as I write, the price is a few cents shy on $109 for May delivery.

Bloomberg reports: “Crude oil jumped more than $2 a barrel and gasoline rose to a record as investors looking for an inflation hedge and higher returns flocked to commodity markets.

Fine, so oil’s going up – that’s nothing new for regular readers of Profit Watch. We’ve been riding this trend since we launched in 2003. What we really want to know is how long can it last… and what does it mean to us as investors? How can we make money from it?

Garry White has the answer. That’s his thing – he writes about oil, gas, gold, in fact all commodities for his group of resource investors. He’s clear about oil:

Despite the threat of a global recession the oil price has remained above $100. This is not just speculation because, if it was, the oil price would have retracted with the gold price. It has outperformed gold over the last two weeks.

First-quarter earnings season kicks off in the US later day with Alcoa. When the oil companies start posting their corporate earnings I believe they will be significantly above consensus, prompting a re-rating of the sector as a whole.

What “Peak Power” means for oil…

I believe this will continue for the next few quarterly earnings reports – and possibly well into next year if “Peak Power” bites the Middle Eastern oil producers hard.

All this means great news for certain suppliers of other energies. With the oil price remaining above $100 and with subsidised fuel set to become a thing of the past… cheaper, but equally efficient, forms of energy will see a massive surge in demand.

One company I’m tipping is already doing exceptionally well and is set to go from strength to strength as “Peak Power” and reduced subsidies continue to drive up the price of oil.

So Garry’s advice to his readers right now is clear: Buy commodities – and oil in particular. If you’re looking for his specific profit plays – ones you can make easily through your own stock broker with easily traded shares – then just get on board his Smart Commodities letter. You’ll learn all about “Peak Power” and what it means for oil investors.

To find out why oil is one of Garry’s Power Trends – 5 trends that could see smart investors make an absolute killing in the months ahead – click here

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares, never risk more than you can afford to lose. Please seek independent financial advice if necessary.

To save you trawling back through your inbox looking for that, let me just give you the link through to the nitty-gritty. This leads you through to the name of a London AIM-listed share that could be a real legacy-making investment:

http://click.fspeletters.com/t/18665/1632470/157214/0/

I can tell from the number of inquiries that came in on Saturday that Profit Watch readers were very receptive to Manraaj’s investment idea. That’s great to see – because I think those people who are following him into this share will see great returns.

But I also had a number of emails from readers who thought that the idea of investing in “the Dark continent”, as someone put it, was utter madness. Why invest in a continent riddled with corruption, poverty and violence, was the gist of the objections.

Fair enough. It’s a natural reaction. But the truth is that those stereotypes aren’t true of most of Africa.

Go where the “smart money” is going…

The smart money is finally catching on that there are really amazing growth prospects in Africa, as The Independent notes:

“As investment banks continue to feel the effects of the credit crunch in the West, some are looking to Africa as the latest emerging market opportunity to boost flagging profits.

“Banking powerhouses Citigroup and JP Morgan operate in sub-Saharan Africa. But last week Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital (RenCap) showed signs of things to come as it bought stakes in New World Investments in Ghana and Pangaea/EMI Securities in Zambia.”

Take a look at this opportunity and see whether you like the sound of it. You can review Manraaj’s in-depth report on one company he believes could help British investors cash in on this great long-term story:

http://click.fspeletters.com/t/18665/1632470/157214/0/

And if your interests lean more towards going for quick in and out profit-grabs, then look out for details from me tomorrow about the latest Forex strategy we’re endorsing. You should see what people using this system are saying.

More on that tomorrow.

Until then…

Best regards,

Frank Hemsley
Profit Watch