Kudos to my friend George Friedman and his crew at Stratfor. If you didn’t see the article in this week’s Barron’s about Stratfor’s analysis of the geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices, you missed a really good piece of work. You’ve probably heard Napoleon’s quote that “Amateurs discuss strategy, and professionals discuss logistics.” If you want a perfect example of how that quote plays out for the markets, take a look at Stratfor’s article below. It’s precisely the kind of sober, fundamental research that makes Stratfor my invaluable source for geopolitical intelligence.

Oil prices have risen dramatically over the past year. When they passed $100 a barrel, they hit new heights, expressed in dollars adjusted for inflation. As they passed $120 a barrel, they clearly began to have global impact.