On one hand, the $130 billion he spent on acquisitions – FleetBoston Financial Corp., MBNA Corp., LaSalle Bank Corp., Countrywide Financial Corp., Charles Schwab Corp.’s (Nasdaq: SCHW) U.S. Trust private banking unit and Merrill Lynch – that more than tripled the size of Bank of America, making it the largest U.S. lender both by assets and deposits.

On the other, his open-wallet policy and the example it set forth almost perfectly encapsulates the boom, bust and nascent rebound of the U.S. housing and banking crisis – which later became the financial plague that devastated markets all over the world.

In the second half of 2007, the extent of the U.S. housing crisis began to crystallize when Countrywide’s freewheeling subprime-lending policy irreversibly sank the nation’s largest home lender. Lewis moved in and acquired the troubled lender for $4 billion the following January, and in doing so, he put Bank of America on the hook for Countrywide $1.5 trillion loan portfolio.

In the second half of 2008, the extent of the how much havoc the destruction of investment banks and brokerage firms would wreak upon the world became clear. The vortex of it was Sept. 15, the day the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (OTC: LEHMQ) declared bankruptcy and Bank of America agreed to pay $29 billion for world’s largest brokerage firm, Merrill Lynch, which probably would have failed had it not found a partner.

Lewis’ spending got Bank of America into this mess. The question now is whether continued  spending – using the $45 billion bailout courtesy of the U.S. Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) – will get BofA out of it.

And Lewis seems to acknowledge both in the news release announcing his voluntary departure.

“Bank of America is well positioned to meet the continuing challenges of the economy and markets,” Lewis said. “We are in position to begin to repay the federal government’s TARP investments. For these reasons, I decided now is the time to begin to transition to the next generation of leadership at Bank of America.”

Lewis naturally defends his actions just as much as critics chide him for them.

“Their loan portfolio is horrible looking and it’s not going to be easy for them,” Mike Williams, research director at Gradient Analytics in Scottsdale, Arizona, said in a Bloomberg News interview before Lewis announced his departure. “They would have been better off without the Merrill and Countrywide acquisitions over the next few years.”

Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson, a leading banking expert, says that Bank of America has a very difficult journey ahead of it.

“Lewis followed [predecessor CEO Hugh] McColl’s strategy of expanding BofA by acquisition,” he said. “The trouble is that his last 2 deals were both lousy. Countrywide was at the epicenter of all that was bad about housing finance, and that was obvious in January 2008, when he bought it. Just a terrible deal.”

In fact, Hutchinson believes there’s only one viable option for Bank of America.

“BofA will have to be broken up, but may need to be sorted out by a liquidator/ the government,” he said.

Spinning Merrill

The Merrill merger was perhaps the defining moment in Lewis’ tenure, and he Lewis has played the victim and hero of the saga.

Lewis testified that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. “Hank” Paulson Jr. pressured him not only to move ahead with a merger with Merrill Lynch despite reservations, but also to stay quiet about the mounting losses at the crumbling investment bank.

And in a note to employees announcing his departure, he took credit for the fact that Merrill has contributed 24% to the Bank of America’s first-half profit, boosted trading and investment-banking revenue, Bloomberg reported.

“I am gratified that even some of the critics of our acquisition of Merrill Lynch have come to acknowledge how well the deal is working out for our clients,” Lewis wrote. “This journey has been a rocky one and not for the faint of heart, but perseverance is paying off.”

But to the rest of the world, Lewis was most often seen sitting under the hot light of probes by Congress, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and New York’s attorney general all trying to determine if Lewis misled investors about Merrill’s losses and bonuses.

And even if shareholders agreed with Lewis’ decisions, they didn’t prefer him to be the company’s face. In April, shareholders voted 50.34% in favor of stripping Lewis of his chairman title.

Changing of the Guard

When Lewis steps down from his post Dec. 31, he joins the ranks of fellow financial firm executives – James Cayne of The Bear Stearns Cos., Charles Prince of Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Stanley O’Neal of Merrill, Kennedy Thompson of Wachovia and Richard Fuld of Lehman Brothers, John Thain of  Merrill Lynch – that resigned, many in disgrace, either during or in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

Among the survivors, Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), and Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM).

Bank of America said it will find a replacement by Lewis’ last day, and media outlets have already began making lists of possible successors.

Among the names frequently mentioned:

• Brian Moynihan, head of Bank of America’s consumer and small business banking unit.
• Sallie Krawcheck, former Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) CFO and president of Bank of America’s global wealth and investment management unit.
• Tom Montag, former Merrill executive and head of Bank of America’s corporate and investment banking unit.

An outsider might well be the best choice, says Money Morning’s Hutchinson.

Lewis is “leaving a company that no human being could manage, with vast problems, and far too broad a franchise,” Hutchinson said. “North Carolina retail bankers haven’t a clue how to run a top international investment bank like Merrill and vice versa. There’s nobody available to succeed him that can do the job.”

Source: Boom, Bust and Rebuild: Bank of America and the Kenneth Lewis Legacy

NABE said the near-term setback will be a result of a “sharp retrenchment” in business investment, but the billions in government efforts to invigorate the economy will soon offset that.

“While the overall tone remains soft, there are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing,” said NABE president, Chris Varvares, who is also president of Macroeconomic Advisers. “The survey found that business economists look for the recession to end soon, but that the economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines.”

NABE also downgraded its growth forecast for the next few quarters – with the second quarter contracting 1.8%, followed by a meager 1.2% growth in the second half. The end result will be an overall 1.2% contraction for 2009.

However, NABE believes a trio of key factors scaring consumers – job losses, tight credit conditions and declines in home values – are here to stay.

In fact, unemployment will likely reach as high as 9.8% by the end of the year while inflation moderates and oil prices remain “relatively depressed.”

NABE’s outlook is the consensus of a 45-person panel of economists.

Mixed Forecasts

NABE’s report joins a chorus of national and international institutions (both government and private) that have issued their own predictions of when the clouds will part over the global economy.

Earlier this month, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified to the congressional Joint Economic Committee that the U.S. economy will begin to “turn up later this year,” Reuters reported.

But such recovery is contingent upon the financial sector’s continued improvement, Bernanke said.

“We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year,” Bernanke told the committee. “An important caveat is that our forecast assumes continuing gradual repair of the financial system; a relapse in financial conditions would be a significant drag on economic activity and could cause the incipient recovery to stall.”

Though Bernanke’s general timeframe for recovery is similar to NABE’s, there are a few differences in their outlooks. Bernanke said the housing market may be bottoming out and pointed to improving consumer spending, two areas NABE said will continue to remain depressed.

More broadly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently slashed the growth forecast for every major country and urged more recovery actions. In its latest global outlook, the IMF said the global economy will likely contract 1.3% this year and post a 1.9% gain next year, Reuters reported.

And while the World Bank sees the global contraction easing and expects a recovery in late 2009, its report, “Swimming Against the Tide: How Developing Countries are Coping with the Global Crisis,” warns that 94 out of 116 developing countries have experienced a slowdown in economic growth. Of those, 43 have high levels of poverty.

Moreover, only one quarter of the most vulnerable countries have the resources to prevent a rise in poverty, the World Bank said.

“We need investments in safety nets, infrastructure, and small and medium size companies to create jobs and to avoid social and political unrest,” World Bank President Robert Zoellick said in the report.

Source: Business Economists Predict Recession Will End in Third Quarter

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said to the Senate Banking Committee that he expects the programs to start by early July, Bloomberg reported.

“Working with the Federal Reserve and the FDIC, we expect these programs to begin operating over the next six weeks,” Geithner said in prepared testimony.

The Public-Private Investment Program is a coordinated effort with the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) to help banks sell as much as $1 trillion in distressed mortgages and other assets.

Announced in March, the Public-Private Investment Program will be funded with $75 billion to $100 billion of U.S. Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) debt guarantees, as well as the funds remaining in the U.S. Treasury Department’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Geithner is betting this plan will finally establish market values for the toxic debt left over from the U.S. housing bust, and that getting the private market involved will minimize the risk that taxpayers will overpay for assets.

“Leverage has declined, the most vulnerable parts of the non-bank financial system no longer pose the same risk, and banks are funding themselves more conservatively,” he said.

TALF Expanded, TARP Reserves Revised

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve announced it would add older real estate to TALF. And Geither reiterated that the Treasury and Fed intend to expand programs to help asset-backed securities markets, such as TALF, Bloomberg reported.

“The Treasury and the Federal Reserve will continue to monitor and enhance the ABS programs to bring in new, more niche asset classes and make sure that the number of eligible borrowers and issuers continues to increase,” Geithner said.

In late March, the Federal Reserve kicked up TALF’s capacity from $200 billion to $1 trillion and began accepting mortgage-related securities as loan collateral.

Geithner also said the Treasury has about $124 billion of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) left, $11 billion less than his previous estimate in March. He also said he expects about $25 billion to be repaid over the next year.

Source: Treasury Selling As Much As $1 Trillion in Bank Assets with Fed and FDIC

Indeed, its largest first-quarter investments included:

• $50.9 million in Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: VWO)
• $1.5 million more iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (NYSE: EWZ)
• $1.1 million more into in iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (NYSE: FXI)
• $877,700 into Van Eck’s Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (NYSE: RSX)
• $817,300 into iShares MSCI Mexico Index Index (NYSE: EWW)
• $390,400 more into iShares MSCI South Africa Index (NYSE: EZA)

Harvard’s fund also took a first-time, $45.5 million position in iShares MSCI South Korea Index ETF (NYSE: EWY), as well as two foreign titans – a $16.7 million stake in China Mobile Ltd. (NYSE ADR: CHL) and a $12.6 million stake in Israel’s Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd. (NASDAQ ADR: TEVA).

Obviously, an institution such as Harvard does its homework before making such an aggressive play call, and committing so much money to the emerging economies of the world – global regions whose stock markets took even bigger hits than the United States’ Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Since the market bottomed out at 676.53 on March 9, the S&P 500 has gained an impressive 34.2%.

During that same span, however, the ETFs that received Harvard endowment dollars have handily trounced the performance of that U.S. bellwether index. Just as an example: Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF is up 58.1% and iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF has gained 51.2%.

And the overall MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (NYSE: EEM) – which measures a 26-country-tracking index of the same name – is up 55.2% since the bottom.

Emerging Market Professors

One of the market professors Harvard is listening to is Robert G. Doll Jr., vice chairman and chief investment officer for private equity fund BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK). Doll said earlier this week that the global economy has likely seen the worst of the worldwide financial crisis, and that developing economies are already emerging from recession.

“If, in fact, we have seen a bottom in markets and economies are going to recover, the emerging parts of the world will recover the most and the fastest,” Doll told Bloomberg News. “After all, their recessions were largely unwanted inventory build-up and not the credit bust in the Western world.”

Earlier this month, Doll said he believed the S&P 500 would fall from its current levels (which it had), and then rally to end the year at around 1,000 – for a gain of about 11%.

“Emerging markets, if they are going to do better than that, are going to do closer to 20%,” Doll said. “There are some that already have. Some have done better than that.”

A couple weeks before Doll’s vote of confidence, Mark Mobius, famed investor and head of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said that emerging-market stocks are building a base to enter a bull market at the end of the year, Bloomberg reported.

“We are at the base-building period for the next bull market,” Mobius told Bloomberg while attending a conference in Indonesia. “What I see happening is perhaps this continuing till the end of the year, and then a breakout.”

Many of these emerging and developing economies are on the cusp of breaking out, but are being held back by the drought of others. The ultimate catalysts that set them loose will be falling interest rates and easing inflation, Mobius said.

In the first week of May, about $4 billion was pumped into emerging-market equity funds. It was the largest weekly inflow since December and the eighth-largest on record, MarketWatch reported. Most of that went into ETFs, and long-term positions at that.

Not coincidentally, the specific countries seeing the largest inflows are represented in Harvard’s portfolio. Brazil posted its second-largest weekly inflow on record. China, India and Russia also saw huge gains, MarketWatch reported.

Those four markets – Brazil, Russia, India and China – comprise the so-called “BRIC” economies of the world.

Emerging Market ETF Plays

How to capitalize on emerging markets reemergence from recession depends on your risk tolerance. And risk levels can vary by country and investment sector.

Carl Delfeld, head of global investment advisory firm Chartwell Partners, noted that while the U.S. financial sector is the chief culprit of the global financial crisis, some healthy-capital foreign banks are currently very nicely positioned because they didn’t get involved in the bad U.S. debt, and because they have the fastest-growing growing base of consumers in the fastest-growing markets.

And a good way to play this trend could be the soon-to-be available Global Shares Dow Jones Emerging Markets Financial Titans ETF, Delfeld writes in the May 25 issue of Forbes magazine. Of the fund’s top-10 holdings, four are China-based, three Brazil and two India.

More speculative investors might be interested in another new ETF, the WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund (NYSE: CEW), a basket of 11 equally weighted emerging market currencies that are rebalanced every quarter.

The currencies in the fund are the Brazilian real, Mexican peso, Chilean peso, Israel shekel, Turkish lira, Polish zloty, Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee and the South African rand.

For more general plays on specific countries, Harvard’s list of new investments could be a good starting point.

Money Morning Contributing EditorHoracio Marquez recommended iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ) in his popular “Buy, Sell or Hold” column last October. It’s also one of the five emerging market ETFs that Money Morning’s Martin Hutchinson recommended earlier this year. Others included iShares MSCI Chile Investable Index (ECH), iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT) and iShares MSCI Singapore Index (EWS).

Source: Looking For the Next Global Profit Play? Take a Look at These Emerging Market ETFs

Starts for privately owned homes clocked in at a 458,000 annual rate, a 12.8% decline from March’s revised rate of 525,000 and a 54.2% dive from April 2008’s annual rate of 1,001,000 starts, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

Meanwhile, building permits for privately owned housing units were applied for at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 494,000, 3.3% below March’s revised rate of 511,000 and a 50.2% plummet from April 2008’s revised rate of 991,000.

The Commerce Department report also sheds light on the complexity of the housing market’s fallout and path to recovery.

Most strikingly, while starts in the West have dropped 52.9% from last year, they actually rose 42.5% from March 2009. The Northeast, Midwest and South all posted double-digit monthly declines and steeper annual losses.

Also, the drop in building permits isn’t necessarily a bad thing, says Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Equity Markets. Like the retail sector’s recovery, the first step for the ailing housing market is getting rid of all the houses already on the market, he said.

“There is so much inventory on the market that the sooner we stop building and start eating into existing inventory the better off we’ll be,” Kenny told Reuters.

Affect on Stock Market

For the short term, April’s housing figures won’t help the country’s top home-repair retailers, The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s Cos. Inc. (NYSE: LOW).

Each company posted quarterly earnings that beat analysts’ forecasts, but not because they’ve been blessed by a return of consumer demand.

Rather, the retailers discounted items and cut costs across the board.

Earlier this year, Home Depot announced plans to cut 7,000 jobs, freeze officers’ salaries and close some specialty outlets – moves that shed 16.4% from operating costs, Reuters reported.

In April alone, building-material and garden-supply stores, shed 7,500 jobs, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

The moves have clearly been effective, but also entwined with a bitter irony.

And as long as unemployment continues climbing, there won’t be a consumer base for every element for the housing market, including the merchandise on their shelves.

Source: U.S. Housing Starts and Permits Revisit Record Lows in April

Chavez’s government and seized the assets of 60 foreign and domestic oil service companies after conflict erupted over nearly $14 billion in debt owed by the country’s state-owned energy company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).

PDVSA accumulated the debt as oil prices took a dramatic slide from over $147 a barrel last July to less than $35 a barrel in February.

PDVSA has attempted to slash expenditures 60% by reducing salaries for managers by 20% and imposing a wage freeze on the majority of its employees. But the company still owed contractors and suppliers $13.9 billion by the end of last year, according to The Wall Street Journal. The majority of that total remains unpaid and some of the debt dates back to last August.
Irate over a growing backlog of invoices, many of the companies threatened to halt operations – something PDVSA and Chavez can ill-afford. The company is accounts for about half of Venezuela’s revenue, and is largely responsible for funding and administering the social programs that Chavez has employed to court popular support.

PDVSA brought in more than $120 billion in revenue in 2008, but this year, it will likely make just $50 billion.

With its back against the wall, PDVSA is demanding that service companies accept a 40% cut in their bills.

“We will not pay contractors that have tried to speculate and don’t care about our company,” PDVSA President Rafael Ramirez said in April. “We have to renegotiate what we pay them.”

Last Friday, the government began expropriating equipment and projects from foreign oil service firms that refused to renegotiate their debt. At least 12 drilling rigs, more than 30 oil terminals, and about 300 boats were seized, the according to The Financial Times.

“To God what is God’s, and to Caesar what is Caesar’s,” Chavez told a throng of supporters, the FT reported. “Today we also say: To the people what is the people’s.”

Tulsa, Okla.-based Williams Cos. (NYSE: WMB) was among the firms that saw its assets taken. The firm said last week that it would write down a $241 million payment default by PDVSA. Drilling contractor Helmerich & Payne Inc. (NYSE: HP) is due $116 million from PDVSA, and is idling seven of its 11 operating rigs in the Andean country while it negotiates payment.

“Chavez has sent a shot across the bow for the entire oil service sector,” Patrick Esteruelas, an analyst with political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, told the Journal.  “This is a very strong message for oil rig companies playing hardball and reluctant to agree on a write-down of their bills.”

But the brash gesture will also bring negative consequences that could significantly jeopardize the nation’s oil production, which is already in decline.

Venezuela’s oil production fell to 2.36 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2008, after climbing as high as 3.18 million bpd in 1997, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) estimated the country’s output was about 2.24 million bpd in December.

The expropriation of the oil service companies “increases the risk of additional declines in oil production since PDVSA is not likely to be as efficient an operator of these businesses and assets as the private sector contractors,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) said in a report.

The seizures “might turn into an expedient and quick political solution to the current large payment arrears to suppliers, they might also entail large medium-term costs in terms of foregone production and overall economic efficiency,” the report said.

The expropriations will also crimp badly needed investment, which in Venezuela is declining almost as quickly as output. Private investment in the nation’s oil sector fell to $500 million last year from twice that level in 2007, BusinessWeek reported.

“Venezuela’s aggressive fiscal terms and the country’s persistent trend toward nationalization of oil industry activities will make it more and more difficult to attract foreign investment and competitive bids from qualified operators,” David Voght, a director at IPD Latin America, which advises several international oil companies operating in Venezuela, told the FT.

PDVSA has slashed investment in new energy projects by $10 billion. And now the company, which is already overburdened by Chavez’s political and social agendas, will have to absorb 8,000 new workers into a permanent payroll that already exceeds 75,500 employees – nearly twice the number employed when Chavez took office a decade ago, according to the Journal.

And without adequate investment, there’s little hope that Venezuela’s output will reverse course anytime soon.

“PDVSA has to invest in the business,” James L. Williams, heads of oil consultancy WTRG Economics told BusinessWeek. “You have to feed a cow if you expect it to give milk.”

Source: Venezuela’s Oil Production Squeezed by Chavez’s Heavy Hand

BB&T said it plans to raise $1.5 billion by selling common stock, combine it with “other funds,” and repay all the capital from the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

The Winston-Salem, N.C. bank also said it will cut its divided 68% to 15 cents a share, an action that will save $725 million in capital a year. Chief Executive Officer Kelly King said the dividend reduction is temporary, and making the decision was marked “the worst day in my 37 year career.”

“However, we firmly believe this action is in the long-term best interests of our shareholders and our company because of the risk and uncertainty associated with being a TARP participant… When market conditions improve and our earnings provide for an increase in the dividend, we are committed to increasing it accordingly,” King said in a statement.

Capital One said it plans to raise about $1.75 billion by selling 56 common stock shares at $27.75 a piece. The bank expects net proceeds “to be used for general corporate purposes” and repaying the Treasury.

U.S. Bancorp plans to raise $2.5 billion by selling common stock to the public with the intention of repaying the Treasury with the proceeds. The Minneapolis-based bank also said it may offer medium-term notes in a benchmark amount in a public offering.

KeyCorp filed with regulators a plan to offer up to $750 million in common shares to raise capital.

Disdain for Government’s Eye

On Friday, the government’s stress test revealed that these banks are four of 10 that need to raise more capital if they were to survive a prolonged deterioration of the U.S. economy.

U.S. Bancorp borrowed $6.6 billion from TARP, Capital One took $3.55 and BB&T received $3.1 billion. In taking the billions in emergency loans, the banks also agreed to have tighter government control of their operations – including clamping down on executive pay.

The capital-raising plans – combined with the previously announced plans by Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) to pay back TARP money – show just how much these banks disdain working on the government’s dime and under the government’s eye. And it shows that they’re willing to further suppress their stock value and possibly upset their shareholders to break the government’s chains.

“Rational, objective lending is one of the most important purposes of the banking system, and when you inject Congress and the administration into it, it effectively politicizes the process, which is not healthy,” BB&T’s King told Reuters.

Source: BB&T, Capital One, U.S. Bancorp and KeyCorp Planning Stock Sales to Raise Capital, Repay TARP

After dividends, the second-largest U.S. bank reported net income of $1.52 billion, or 40 cents a share, on $25 billion in revenue.

Investors have been cautiously cheering the performance of the financial sector, whose enormous losses led the stock market into decline. JPMorgan’s quarterly earnings report – like that of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and rosy estimates from Bank of America Corp. (BAC) – serves as another psychological prop to jaded investors.

Perhaps the biggest surprise was JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s claim that the Wall Street bank has the resources to pay back the $25 billion it borrowed from the U.S. Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs sold $5 billion in shares to repay half of what it borrowed from TARP.
“We could pay it back tomorrow,” Dimon said on a conference call, adding that the bank is waiting for guidance from the government.

JPMorgan’s investment banking business was a large driver of profits, bringing in a record $8.3 billion in revenue, including $4.9 billion from fixed-income trading alone. The investment-banking arm brought in $3 billion during the same period last year.

“It is almost certain we will see no improvement in those numbers for the next three quarters, probably through the middle of next year,” Gavin Graham, director of investments at Bank of Montreal Asset Management in Toronto, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

Source: JPMorgan Beats First Quarter Estimates, Continues Bank Earnings Rally

The industry has enabled socio-economic development, enhanced economic growth and productivity, reduced poverty, and improved standards of living across the board. It’s even helped develop nuclear power in India.

And the company standing at the top of India’s IT mountain is not Infosys Technologies Ltd (INFY) or Tata Consultancy Services. And it’s certainly not Satyam Computer Services (ADR: SAY).

It’s Armonk, N.Y.-based International Business Machines Corp. (IBM).

“They’ve beaten their competition relatively handily,” Kaufman Bros.’s Karl Keirstead told Bloomberg, who pointed to IBM’s brand name and experience as draws for potential clients. “There’s a cachet in using IBM.”

IBM’s model is the anti-model. Whichever country the company is working in, it has a game plan exclusively catered to it. It encompasses not only the determination of the customer needs, but also the provision of every aspect of the required technology solutions – including recurring maintenance, updating and even financing.

And financing is crucial these days. IBM’s long history in the world’s markets has given the company a recognition and credibility abroad, helping to mitigate competitive threats from unproven newcomers.

Its presence in India will yield dividends as India’s economy emerges from the global financial crisis.

IBM leaders have shrewdly increased the company’s investments in the fastest growth areas of the world, increasing its unparalleled geographic diversification as it keeps emphasizing its higher-value businesses – especially software, highly profitable middleware and services.

At the beginning of 2009, 71% of IBM’s nearly 400,000 employees are working overseas – a 65% increase from two years prior.

In fact, IBM incorporates the words “global” or “world” in nearly every sentence of the business strategy outlined in its annual earnings report of 2008.

“The Internet has enabled communication and collaboration across the world and brought with it a new computing model premised on continuous global connection. In that landscape, companies can distribute work and technology anywhere in the world,” the report said.

It continues: “At the same time, the current economic crisis increases the pressure on both businesses and governments around the world to adapt…. Given these opportunities and economic challenges, IBM is working with its clients to develop new business designs and technical architectures that allow their businesses the flexibility required to compete in this new landscape.”

IBM Boosts Profits with Business Overhaul

In addition to global diversification, IBM has also successfully employed a versatile and aggressive business model. Between 2000 and 2008, IBM acquired more than 100 companies and poured more than $50 billion into research and development.

In 2000, the distribution of IBM’s business model was: Hardware (24%), software (25%), financing (10%) and services (40%).

But by the end of last year, the model had evolved to: Hardware (9%), software (40%), financing (9%) and services (42%).

The result was a 130% increase in annual earnings per share (EPS) on more than 22% annual revenue growth in that span.

For 2008 – by far one of the worst years for companies around the world – IBM posted an 18.4% increase in net income and 23.9% increase in earnings per share.

And IBM blew away analysts’ estimates with a fourth-quarter net income of  $4.4 billion, or $3.38 a share – a 12% increase from 2007. Analysts had expected IBM to earn only $3.03 per share.

What’s more is that the first quarter of 2009 is shaping up to be much better.

IBM said it expects a $9.20 EPS in fiscal 2009, up from the $8.93 it posted in 2008. It’s also forecasting an EPS in the range of $10 and $11 in 2010.

But more than anything else right now, investors want to first see the company’s first-quarter results, due Monday.

IBM’s Eventful First Quarter

IBM’s biggest news came in March, when the company made a $6.5 billion, or about $10 per share, bid for Sun Mircosystems Inc. (JAVA). IBM subsequently lowered its offer to $9 per share and talks fell apart.

According to a recent report by CNBC, Sun has attempted to restart negotiations, but IBM is wary of the government scrutiny that may result. A combined IBM-Sun business would dominate the server market with a near 50% share – something that could set anti-trust alarm bells ringing.

However, if IBM did move ahead with the Sun acquisition, the company would not only build on its hardware business and take control in the server market, it would further expand its software portfolio, which is the company’s most profitable business.

Regardless of whether or not it reaches a deal with Sun IBM has plenty of business to build on.

Big Blue is teaming up with tech giants to build 28-nanometer (nm) chips, a little more than a generation ahead of 45nm technologies used by industry leaders Intel Corp. (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), CNET reported.

It also recently inked a seven-year, $372 million deal to manage IT infrastructure of Canada’s National Financial Group (NA). That came three days after IBM announced a similar deal with of one India’s largest banks, Kurmanchal Nagar Sahakari Bank, which is planning to double the number of its branches in the next two years.

Finally, last week, IBM won an eight-year, $873 million contract with the state of Georgia to provide mainframes, servers, printers, service desk, end-user computing and disaster recovery.

Elliott Gue, editor of Personal Finance newsletter, wrote that IBM’s IT services are a steady revenue stream, and are a product of its long-established relationships with the world’s biggest companies.

And now – with spending tightening around the world – is the time they especially turn to IBM.

“Many of IBM’s key software and service offerings are designed to cut costs for companies and improve the efficiency of their IT infrastructure,” Gue wrote. “And during downturns, companies are always looking for ways to cut costs.”

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters forecast first-quarter earnings of $1.65 a share on revenue of $22.6 billion. IBM earned $1.65 a share on revenue of $24.5 billion a year earlier.

Source: Hot Stocks: IBM’s Diverse Business and Global Presence Should Boost First Quarter Earnings

Marchionne said he’s aiming for Chrysler’s U.S. and Canada labor costs to match those of plants in Japan and Germany. Otherwise, he is prepared to scrap the deal, a move that would likely send Chrysler into bankruptcy court.

“Absolutely we are prepared to walk. There is no doubt in my mind,” he in an interview. “We cannot commit to this organization unless we see light at the end of the tunnel.”

Marchionne gave 50-50 odds that a merger will be formed, and spoke strongly about the reality Chrysler faces if its unions – the Canadian Auto Workers (CAW) and United Auto Workers (UAW) – don’t “change the framework of the discussion.”

“We are not anti-organized labor. No one wants to remove the UAW or the CAW from the table. But it will happen if a bankruptcy process drags on,” he said, adding that the negotiations with the CAW are especially lacking progress.

Privately owned Chrysler has been survived only by taking on $4 billion in emergency government loans, and the Obama administration has given the car company until the end of April to produce a viable business model. If Chrysler succeeds, the administration will provide another $6 billion loan.

“What we’re asking for is difficult,” President Obama said. “It will require hard choices by companies. It will require unions and workers who have already made extraordinarily painful concessions to do more. It’ll require creditors to recognize that they can’t hold out for the prospect of endless government bailouts.”

The first stipulation for Chrysler is that the company alters its partnership with Fiat, which agreed in January to take a 35% stake in Chrysler.

Under new terms, Fiat would take a 20% stake in Chrysler with the White House’s backing. And as Chrysler reaches certain milestones, Fiat would gradually increase its ownership to 49% in 5% increments. The Fiat stake would only rise above 49% after Chrysler repaid all money owed to the U.S. Treasury.

Chrysler is currently 80% owned by Cerberus Capital Management LP and 20% owned by Daimler AG of Germany, owner of Mercedes-Benz.

Chrysler creditors are also planning to make a counteroffer to the U.S. Treasury this week – possibly asking for equity in a firm combining Chrysler and Fiat S.p.A. (ADR: FIATY), The Wall Street Journal reported.

The lenders, which include JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Citigroup Inc. (C), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), were in talks with the government to reduce Chrysler’s debt by swapping some of it out for equity, new debt or a lesser amount in cash.

Source: Fiat CEO Gives 50% Chance of Chrysler Merger, Demands More Labor Cost Cuts