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Avoid Green Stocks As Pickens Plan Hits A Wall

Nov 21st, 2008 | By Irwin Greenstein | Category: Oil Investment & Alternative Energy

In the age of the sound-bite, when one of green energy’s high-profile advocates backs away from a $2-billion project, you know that alternative energy is on life support.

T. Boone Pickens, oil man, hedge-fund manager and natural gas entrepreneur, made headlines earlier this year when he announced an initial investment of $2-billion in a new Texas wind farm. Wrapped in the brilliance of Old Glory, he stepped up to the soap box and declared how he would wean America off evil foreign oil. Overnight, the 80-year-old Texas legend became the most unlikely poster boy for the green energy movement.

Given Pickens’ Texas Holdem swagger, wind energy - and by association all alternative energy - took on a measure of safety that deluded many investors into thinking they could simultaneously buy their way into the Wall Street Hall of Fame and the Pearly Gates of St. Peter.

Now, it turns out, Pickens’ massive project is sucking cash instead of blowing in the wind. And in one of the most under-reported stories of the year, Pickens finally admitted that the wind farm has been put on hold indefinitely.

Just as investors followed Pickens to the alter of green, they should now also pull green from their portfolio.

The same market dynamics that forced Pickens away from wind continue to crush the green industry as a whole: difficult financing and low oil prices. Some rosy optimists still cling to the belief that President-elect Obama will wave his magic green wand and make all those problems go away. But with record unemployment, the struggle to save Detroit and expensive wars in the Middle East, we contend that Mr. Obama’s green initiatives will prove to be nothing more than campaign rhetoric for at least the first 12 months of his administration.

Certainly big money men such as Pickens, electric-car magnate Elon Musk and Silicon Valley’s new breed of green venture capitalists have influence in Washington. But we’re still not convinced that Obama, for all his good intentions, can make a convincing argument to throw billions behind green in these tough, recessionary times.

As it now stands, Pickens’ Mesa Power has already placed orders for the first phase of the Pampa Wind Project, 667 wind turbines from General Electric capable of generating 1,000 megawatts of electricity, enough to power more than 300,000 average U.S. households.

The first phase of the project, estimated at $2 billion, was originally scheduled to come online in early 2011.

He still expects to take delivery of the project’s 2,700 turbines in 2010, but their installation might be delayed until wind is more competitive economically, he was quoted as saying. Still, 2010 isn’t that far away, and the likelihood of oil rebounding to this summer’s high of near $150 by then is quite slim.

Futures of light sweet crude were trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at about $57 a barrel, a 21-month low. Unless, Obama can create thousands of new jobs in 2009 so consumers can drive to the mall, oil prices will continue to remain depressed.

While green investments will certainly make a rebound in our lifetime, it won’t take place in the next 12 months.


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By Irwin Greenstein

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