Base Metals Mixed, Aluminum and Copper Stocks on the Rise
Nov 3rd, 2008 | By Doug Casey | Category: Financial NewsThe base metals were mixed on Friday. Copper fell from the pre-dawn hours to the New York open, but rallied from there, regaining much of the lost ground though it failed to break even, finishing at $1.893/lb., down 4 1/3 cents.
Nickel briefly dropped below $5 during the pre-dawn hours, but pushed higher through most of the day, closing at $5.4817/lb., up nearly 24 cents. Zinc zigged and zagged to little ultimate effect, ending at $0.4876/lb., down less than a half-cent. Aluminum lost ground, shedding more than a penny, to $0.907/lb., while lead was strong, adding almost 2½ cents, to $0.6864/lb.
In a mixed day for the industrial metals, copper finished up its worst month in thirty years, losing 36% in October on concerns about the slowing global economy. No one is giving it much of a chance for a rebound anytime soon, either.
“The outlook for demand doesn’t look good,” said Triland Metals trader Michael Khosrowpour. “China seems to be one of the saviors around but at the same time there are a lot of other economies that are shrinking.”
Donald Selkin, of National Securities Corp. in New York, concurred, saying that, “There are some headwinds in the economy that will continue to pressure copper … It will keep trading around these lower levels.”
Advancing stocks also played their role in copper’s decline. Inventories monitored by the LME shot up 6,775 metric tons yesterday, to 239,650 tons, the highest level since mid-March of 2004.
Unsurprisingly, Citigroup slashed its 2009 copper-price forecast by 45%. Copper will average $2 a pound next year, Citi now says. That’s a steep downward revision from the previous forecast of $3.65/lb.
Meanwhile, LME aluminum stocks also jumped, gaining 1,150 metric tons yesterday, to 1.5 million tons.
Regarding zinc, the Chelyabinsk Zinc Plant, Russia’s largest zinc producer, said yesterday it has abandoned plans to develop a mine near its main production asset and will slash investments after cratering prices led to a first-half loss.
And Brazil’s mining giant, Vale, said yesterday it will cut its iron ore output by 10% percent from November, in response to the deteriorating global economy.
Source: Base metals mixed - Aluminum, copper stocks on the rise
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Doug Casey is a contrarian investor, sought-after public speaker and author of several books. His work "Crisis Investing" held the position of # 1 bestseller on the New York Times list for 26 consecutive weeks. Doug's unusual views on the economy - and just about everything else - have gained a huge following in the investment community, and it certainly helps that his stock recommendations of undervalued junior exploration companies have made his subscribers millions. Now in its 27th year, Doug's monthly newsletter, the International Speculator, is one of the most established and esteemed publications on gold, silver and other natural resource investments. Together with the Casey Energy Speculator, it covers a broad range of carefully selected stocks with the very real potential of double- and triple-digit returns within 12 to 24 months.