Tuesday, November 24th, 2009

Base Metals Mostly Rally

May 13th, 2008 | By Doug Casey | Category: Gold Market

The base metals were nearly all in the black on Monday. Copper was up from the open through to the noon hour, after which it traded sideways and finished at $3.7982/lb., up less than 2 cents.

Nickel traded up and down within a 15-cent range, closing near the bottom of it at $12.0312/lb., down 3 cents. Zinc came well off its intraday highs, but managed to end in positive territory at $0.9764/lb., up a penny and a quarter. Aluminum rode a slow but steady updraught through the day, winding up with a gain of 2½ cents, to $1.3093/lb., while lead finally had an up day, adding just over a penny, to $1.0123/lb.

A desultory day in industrial metals trading was marked by a slight gain for copper, which observers said had little to do with fundamentals.

“After the large systematic selling seen last week, traders have started to buy back some of their short positions, causing prices to edge higher,” said analysts at RBC Capital Markets.

However, Matt Zeman, of LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago, says it’s all about the dollar. The copper market will continue to be “shaky,” Zeman said, as traders keep one eye on the buck. “People are in a wait- and-see period and are looking to the currency market for direction,” he said.

Meanwhile, Chinese demand continues strong. The country imported 246,119 metric tons of copper in April, the Beijing-based customs office said yesterday. That compares with 240,634 tons in March, although it’s down from the 304,672 tons of a year earlier.

The lead price, which has been on a steep down trajectory for some time now, briefly fell below that of zinc in the morning hours, for the first time since August of last year, before recovering.

Analysts at BaseMetals.com attributed the dip to a loosening of the supply and demand balance for lead, and a market that is moving towards surplus.

But, “Rising stocks and lacklustre demand are keeping prices under pressure, but given the vulnerability of the supply side of the lead market and the potential for a rebound in Chinese demand during the summer, we view this recent sell-off (in lead) as overdone,” analysts at Barclays Capital wrote.

Among broad market measures, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index climbed to a record yesterday, and the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index is showing a 21% percent rise so far in 2008.

“In the base metals and other commodities, the market still does not fully appreciate the underlying demand coming from a strong global economy,” said Chip Hanlon, of Delta Global Advisors Inc. in Huntington Beach, California.

In labor news, Peru’s Mining Federation, which represents 28,000 workers, said over the weekend it is suspending a planned strike to give the government time to pass legislation that would provide miners with the benefits they’re seeking. However, workers did walk out at Namibia’s biggest zinc producer, Skorpion Zinc, on Saturday.


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By Doug Casey

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