The base metals were mixed on Wednesday. Copper ran at $2 again, and again was turned away at $1.98 right around noon, after which it fell to finish at $1.9483/lb., down a quarter-cent.

Nickel was down in the pre-dawn hours but rallied through the rest of the day, closing at $4.8368/lb., up 5¼ cents. Zinc was sharply higher through most of the day, ending at its intraday high of $0.603/lb., up a penny. Aluminum was modestly higher, adding a quarter-cent to $0.652/lb., while lead was modestly lower, shedding a half-cent, to $0.5956/lb.

Copper continues to struggle to close over $2, carding a fractional loss yesterday after it fell short of what is proving a formidable barrier once again.

Analysts said the metal’s run early in the day followed the stock market. “A little bit of buying has crept through on the back of the Dow,” said James Roberts, of Sucden Financial in London. “The turnaround in prices is equity-driven.”

But the upturn in the dollar likely put a lid on things.

“We expect the currency markets and technical signals to continue exerting a strong influence over short-term price direction,” wrote analysts at Standard Bank.

Stockpile data was non-supportive, as inventories monitored by the LME rose by 2,300 metric tons yesterday, to 504,200 tons. But canceled warrants—metal earmarked for delivery—continued to soar, advancing to 59,825 tons yesterday, up from 27,675 tons a week earlier.

Inventories are still up by 48% this year, but with a lot of metal heading out for China, some see improvement ahead.

Analyst Judy Zhu was somewhat optimistic, writing that, “Data related to consumption of industrial commodities lead us to believe that the worst time for China’s demand may have passed, though we still believe that an immediate, strong rebound is unlikely.”

It’s not only copper that’s streaming toward China, either. As Platts wrote, “The wide spread between Chinese refined zinc prices and those quoted on the London Metal Exchange has led to an increase in zinc imports over the past three months, as local importers make huge profits.”

While supplies are tight now, “Industry participants, however, expect zinc imports to slow down by mid-May, when the buying season ends. Zinc end-users in China, such as zinc alloy producers, usually buy materials between February and May every year once they are back from the Lunar New Year break end January,” Platts wrote.

Source: Base Metals Move Little