Base Metals Rebound
May 3rd, 2008 | By Doug Casey | Category: Gold MarketThe base metals were mostly higher on Friday. Copper was down in the pre-dawn hours, but took off once New York trading began and pushed steadily higher, only retreating a little after noon to finish at $3.8731/lb., up 8 2/3 cents.
Nickel also rallied off its pre-dawn lows, but it wasn’t enough to get it back into the black as it closed at $12.724/lb., down 4½ cents. Zinc inched higher, ending at $0.9824/lb., up three-quarters of a cent. Aluminum had a strong day, adding 2 2/3 cents to $1.2998/lb., while lead logged a modest gain to $1.1595/lb., up a penny and a quarter.
After the bloodletting on Thursday, most traders were clearly in a bargain-hunting mood yesterday.
“In the likes of copper where the fundamentals are tight and, if anything, tightening, this sell-off may well be snapped up as a buying opportunity,” said Basemetals.com analyst William Adams.
“This is especially so when you consider that the equity and dollar rally is unfolding on the back of high hopes that the interest rate cuts and other measures the U.S. Federal Reserve has taken will bolster the U.S. economy, which in turn should be good for metal demand,” Adams added.
Also factoring in were supply worries. Inventories monitored by the LME dropped by 450 metric tons yesterday, to 109,625 tons.
Bill O’Neill, of LOGIC Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, remains bullish, saying that, “The market has a very solid underlying base as far as low free stocks are concerned. We have the Codelco strike situation continuing, so I think there is some pretty good underlying fundamentals within the market … Long term, this copper bull market is still in play.”
The Codelco situation remained unchanged yesterday, with the Andino and Salvador mines staying shut, and no end to the strike in sight.
And a Macquarie Bank report said Chinese copper demand for the first quarter was up by only 1% year-on-year, as consumers re-built stocks. However, “Aluminium was up by 9.5% year-on-year, affected by supply disruptions following weather/power problems and lower exports of aluminium fabricated products,” the report noted.
Most analysts believe that the industrial metals will be driven in the near future by the dollar, as traders try to divine whether a real rally is underway, or whether the buck is merely making a dead cat bounce. Monday will have little to tell, as the LME is closed for holiday.
Advertisement
Eliminate the Risk of Your Bank Going Under…
You can't turn on the news today without hearing about another bank that has been sold or needs to be bailed out by the government. Why put your money at risk when you could open an account and let the Swiss government refill it every morning with stable and rising francs…and withdraw it whenever you want using your ATM card?
Billionaire television analyst Peter Schiff will show you exactly how to save your cash, and add to it too – by as much as 5 times over the next 9 months. Click here to get started.
Doug Casey is a contrarian investor, sought-after public speaker and author of several books. His work "Crisis Investing" held the position of # 1 bestseller on the New York Times list for 26 consecutive weeks. Doug's unusual views on the economy - and just about everything else - have gained a huge following in the investment community, and it certainly helps that his stock recommendations of undervalued junior exploration companies have made his subscribers millions. Now in its 27th year, Doug's monthly newsletter, the International Speculator, is one of the most established and esteemed publications on gold, silver and other natural resource investments. Together with the Casey Energy Speculator, it covers a broad range of carefully selected stocks with the very real potential of double- and triple-digit returns within 12 to 24 months.