Base Metals Sag
May 8th, 2008 | By Doug Casey | Category: Gold MarketThe base metals were all in the red on Wednesday. Copper couldn’t hold on to Tuesday’s gains, as it fell in fits and starts through the day, finishing at $3.8915/lb., down 4 cents.
Nickel had a directionless day, eventually easing to $12.82/lb., down 5 2/3 cents. Zinc traded with a down bias, falling below $1 at one point before climbing back to close at $1.0089/lb., down two-thirds of a cent. Aluminum declined slowly but steadily to end at $1.3002/lb., down more than a penny and three-quarters, while lead continued weak, shedding 5¾ cents, to $1.0916/lb.
Base metal buyers backed off as easing supply fears and a strongly firming dollar combined to limit their appeal.
The end of the 3-week strike at three of Codelco’s copper mines in Chile, which had helped underpin the market, finally made its effects felt yesterday, a day after workers settled with the company. The biggest mine, El Teniente (25% of output), reopened Tuesday afternoon, Andina mine is back at 80% of capacity, and El Salvador could restart by the end of the week.
However, some analysts believe the resolution may not hold. Alex Heath of RBC Capital Markets warned that: “An agreement to a bonus award does not address the underlying issue of hiring contract workers onto the permanent workforce that was at the root of the industrial action … Given that this has still not been addressed, it may prove to be only a temporary solution.”
And supplies do still remain constricted, as copper inventories monitored by the LME reported a drop of 625 metric tons yesterday, to 109,025 tons.
The deciding factor determining copper’s direction will likely be China, and although Shanghai inventories fell for a third straight week, the demand picture is fuzzy. Chinese copper imports fell by 19% in Q1, and observers are expecting further declines in April’s data, due out next week.
“Demand seems to be softening somewhat on a global basis, and Chinese use has come down,” said John Gross, publisher of the Copper Journal. “There’s some concern demand will continue to slow.”
Finally, those of a certain age will remember collecting 1943 pennies as kids, that year being the only one in which the penny was made of steel rather than copper. Now, with the cost of fabricating a penny at 1.25 cents, Congress is debating bring back, yes, the steel penny. Of course, it’d be simpler to get rid of the coin entirely, since it no longer has any real utility. But when has the government ever opted for the simple solution?
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Doug Casey is a contrarian investor, sought-after public speaker and author of several books. His work "Crisis Investing" held the position of # 1 bestseller on the New York Times list for 26 consecutive weeks. Doug's unusual views on the economy - and just about everything else - have gained a huge following in the investment community, and it certainly helps that his stock recommendations of undervalued junior exploration companies have made his subscribers millions. Now in its 27th year, Doug's monthly newsletter, the International Speculator, is one of the most established and esteemed publications on gold, silver and other natural resource investments. Together with the Casey Energy Speculator, it covers a broad range of carefully selected stocks with the very real potential of double- and triple-digit returns within 12 to 24 months.