Base Metals See Red
Feb 18th, 2009 | By Doug Casey | Category: Financial NewsThe base metals were all leaking red on Tuesday. Outside of a brief morning blip up, copper declined from the pre-dawn hours straight through, finishing at its intraday low of $1.4256/lb., down 11 cents from Friday. Pretty much the same story for nickel, which closed at its intraday low of $4.4006/lb., down more than 20 cents.
Zinc fell off pre-dawn then went flat, ending at $0.4894/lb., down a penny and three-quarters. Aluminum was a steady decliner to $0.5863/lb., down two cents, while lead was weak as well, shedding a penny and three-quarters, to $0.4965/lb.
Copper led the industrial metals lower, cratering the most in three months as the dismal economic numbers continue to roll in.
“Prices were softer across the metals complex as concerns over global growth prospects were exacerbated,” wrote analysts at Barclays Capital in London, climbing stockpiles are “offering little change in the market-surplus dynamic.”
Indeed, stockpile growth has barely paused for breath over recent months, and yesterday was no exception as copper inventories monitored by the LME advanced by 3,100 metric tons, to 526,425 tons, a fresh high since October of 2003. Stocks are now up 55% just so far this year.
Looking near term, Gijsbert Groenewegen, of Gold Arrow Capital Management in New York, said that, “Copper has further downside to go. All the exporting countries are being hit, and manufacturing is coming down. That’s going to bring copper down. The two main usages for copper, housing and autos, are also struggling.”
And with GM (NYSE:GM) and Chrysler (carrying hats in hand to Washington this week, “Upcoming decisions with respect to the automakers will likely be the most dominant price influence for copper over the short-term,” said (NYSE:MF) MF Global’s Ed Meir.
In company news, Teck Cominco (NYSE:TCK) released Q4 numbers that were mixed. Although the diversified miner saw revenues rise by 13% year-over-year, lower prices and carrying charges dragged the net into the red to the tune of C$600 million.
And in Mongolia, bidding on the prized $2 billion Tavan Tolgoi coal mine promises to be spirited, with all the big names reportedly in on it, including Vale (NYSE:RIO), Xstrata, Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP), BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and China’s Shenhua Energy. Tavan Tolgoi, which has a coal reserve of 6.5 billion metric tons, is also drawing bids from consortiums of Japanese, Russian and Korean firms, sources say.
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Doug Casey is a contrarian investor, sought-after public speaker and author of several books. His work "Crisis Investing" held the position of # 1 bestseller on the New York Times list for 26 consecutive weeks. Doug's unusual views on the economy - and just about everything else - have gained a huge following in the investment community, and it certainly helps that his stock recommendations of undervalued junior exploration companies have made his subscribers millions. Now in its 27th year, Doug's monthly newsletter, the International Speculator, is one of the most established and esteemed publications on gold, silver and other natural resource investments. Together with the Casey Energy Speculator, it covers a broad range of carefully selected stocks with the very real potential of double- and triple-digit returns within 12 to 24 months.