BHP to Help China Find Uranium
Jun 14th, 2008 | By Contrarian Profits | Category: Featured, Financial NewsAs China looks to nuclear power for its future energy needs, China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group Co said it plans to team up with BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s biggest mining company, for uranium exploration.
Last year, China’s uranium reserves came to more that 300,000 tons — enough to meet demand until 2030.
Jason Simpkins in Money Morning reckons one of the best alternative energy investments is in uranium mining stocks…:
Uranium has become one of the most coveted and volatile commodities on the planet. Overall, uranium gained 28% in 2007, but that seemingly simple statistic masks a much-more-complex story.
At one point in June, uranium prices were up 84% for the year. But then a mass sell-off – accelerated by the U.S. Department of Energy’s decision to auction off as much as 200 tons of uranium from its own inventory – drove prices from $138 a pound down to $75 a pound in just three months.
So far this year uranium has skidded even more, reaching its current trading price of about $65 a pound. Despite the dip, however, the underlying fundamentals remain strong, meaning it’s probably the perfect time to start stocking back up on the yellow cake providers.
In a recent research note, analysts with the RBC Capital Markets Group of the Royal Bank of Canada (RY) said that the current spot price of uranium has been “driven to excessively low levels due to intense selling pressure and lack of buying demand, coupled with the typical illiquidity of the spot market.”
The RBC analysts also said that “the long-term price, on the other hand, has not changed since May 2007 and we think this better reflects the market’s view of longer-term supply-demand fundamentals.”
So where should you look for profit opportunities? If you look at the charts, some uranium mining company stocks appear to move up and down in virtual lockstep with spot prices.
If you want a pure play on an increase in the price of uranium itself, Cameco Corp. (CCJ) is your best shot. It’s the largest producer of uranium in North America and – despite flooding at its Cigar Lake site last year – Cameco remains the world’s largest and most liquid uranium miner, making it vital to the global supply.The company’s profit more than doubled in the first three months of 2008, surging 125% on its uranium and gold mining operations. RBC also likes Cameco’s potential.
Read more here for Jason’s tips on maximising profit from blue-chip uranium mining stocks.In Taipan Daily, Irwin Greenstein takes a closer look at China’s stealth uranium traders:
The current decline in uranium prices gives these China super-traders a critical inflection point to pick up the slack and clean up the environment.
China could benefit greatly from plunging uranium prices… as well as investors who take a long-term position in China’s growth.
Uranium futures contracts through the end of this year are trading in the mid $60 range. By comparison, U308 uranium was priced at about $140 per pound as early as January of this year.
The steep decline in uranium could be just what the Chinese need to make their move before manufacturers start moving out entirely to countries such as Vietnam.
There is a growing sense of urgency to corner the uranium market.
This stealth team of Chinese traders is armed with a $300-billion war chest to grab up every last ounce of U308 uranium. And if anyone can pull this off, it’s the Chinese.
Unlike gold, oil or copper, there’s no regulated trading exchange for U308. You can’t buy an ETF for it. U308 moves in a near-underground economy of secretive auctions where uranium trading is fast and furious.
The absence of a regulated trading exchange gives an enormous advantage to a stealth team of Chinese traders instructed by the government to track down every last pound of U308.
This crackerjack team is headed by a cabinet-level rising star who is chauffeured around Beijing in a big, black Audi. He sports a cigarette holder like FDR and is considered one of China’s top economist.
Under his brilliant supervision, the Chinese uranium traders will draw on a war chest of $300 billion in U.S dollars. That amount is nearly twice the size of the world’s largest mutual fund. It’s about six times bigger than the legendary Magellan Fund. And it’s bigger than the world’s top four mutual funds combined.
Over the next 15 years, China plans on building 30 new nuclear reactors. Without those critical reactors, the country’s environment and economy could be heading straight for the dumpster.
China desperately needs another 23,000 megawatts to maintain its nonstop growth.
And 23,000 megawatts is a massive amount of electricity. It’s how much New York City lost during the great blackout of 2003, when 19 million New Yorkers were plunged into darkness and the city was dead in the water.
That’s why China is committed to shelling out $50 billion on 30 nuclear power plants. The country must make the leap from 8.7 million kilowatts today to 40 million kilowatts by 2020. It’s the most ambitious nuclear power expansion in history.
For investors interested in China, the move to nuclear energy is great news. It means that China will overcome its energy problems — removing another obstacle to long-term growth.
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