Blog traffic appears it’s a good indicator of stock market prices. According to Barry Ritholz of The Big Picture, an increase in blog traffic is a good contrarian indicator of stock prices.

Since the market peaked in October 2007, I have pointed out (repeatedly) when TBP traffic soared in response to the credit crisis. Each time, we noted this was a good contrary indicator, and used it as a good short term buy signal for a trade.

And after each short term rally, the public angst was proven correct, and lower lows were had.

This month, I could not help but notice the opposite: that traffic dropped substantially – from over 2.5 million page views in March to just over 2 million in April.

Not coincidentally, we had a rip roaring rally over the same period of time (during which we were suitably bullish). As the economy’s free fall slowed (improving 2nd derivative), the traffic slipped.

Whether it was the stimulus or the Fed funded parachutes opening, people searched less for news on the crisis. I presume this is a function of psychology – investors are less nervous, spend less time flailing about for answers, and revert back somewhat towards their old media consumption habits. AKA Complacent.

What really interests us here at Notes is that the majority of investors turn to the underground only when things are bad. During the mania phase of the investment cycle, people seem willing to switch bank to CNNMoney and Cramer. True underground investors should take note and exploit this tendency to their advantage. These complacent investors make easy targets.

4 – Team Obama Will Stuff Taxpayers in GM Deal

Team Obama is showing further disregard for the taxpayer by siding with unions in its negotiations with GM. (Well, at least it’s not just banks who are getting a sweet deal at the expense of the middle class that Obama claims to represent.) According Weisenthal at Clusterstock, the GM bondholder counteroffer is a better deal for the taxpayer than the one proposed by the Obama administration. Confused? You shouldn’t be. It’s right out of Team Obama’s playbook.

On its face, the GM (GM) bondholder counteroffer looks like a better deal for taxpayers than the original one proposed by the administration. Odd, right?

Under the old one, the Treasury would own a 51% stake in the company, and cancel much of its debt. Under the new plan, the bondholders would own the majority of the company, the Union would own a little less, and the government would own nothing, but keep the entirety of its debt. So what’s the problem?

Well, as explained here at Seeking Alpha, the union pension fund loses out on a $10 billion payment. Plus, the union wouldn’t have the government as its owner, which means no kid gloves in the future.