Boomers Say, “What, Me Worry?,” Goldman Issues Gloomy Forecast, Here Comes Another $250 Billion Problem, and More!
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Gen X wonders if it can ever retire. As Wall Street waits for Citi and Merrill shoes to drop, Goldman issues gloomy forecast. As if write-downs weren’t enough, here comes another $250 billion problem. A 17% first-quarter loss…When hedge funds don’t hedge. Coal prices shoot skyward… The sector ideally positioned to benefit.
— Here’s a cheery way to start your week: More than two-thirds of American Gen Xers — those aged 27-42 — don’t think they will ever be able to stop working. And don’t think they’ll ever see a dime from Social Security or Medicare.
“The Gen X group is the most anxious about their finances,” Chris Moloney of Scottrade told Reuters last week.
Of the 1,000 people they talked to who were 18 and older, nearly 40% percent said they had saved less than $25,000 for retirement. Conventional wisdom suggests if you want to live for 20 years on about $50,000 per year — whatever that will be worth at that the time — you’ll need to have $1 million stashed away.
“Gen X is in the middle of a ‘retirement perfect storm’ of very high expectations, low retirement savings and massive concern about the future of Social Security,” Moloney says.
Thirty seven percent said they would like to have between $1-5 million saved for retirement — even if their ability to save this money leaves such sums in the realm of wishful thinking.
Not that we want to reignite the debate among readers about which generation is “to blame” for the state of things, but we also note that 64% of baby boomers say they’re ready to retire — and aren’t worried.
Take that.
Worth the paper it’s printed on…
— Retail sales were up in March…but mostly because gasoline keeps costing more.
The Commerce Department says retail sales rose 0.2% in March, a tad more than the flat reading analysts were expecting. But throw gasoline out of the equation, and they were ruler flat, indeed.
If the figures took inflation into account, which they don’t, the outlook for retailers would be even more discouraging. Still, a 0.2% increase in March looks better than, say, the revised 0.4% decline in February…
— U.S. stock markets began the week moving sideways, taking a breather after GE’s earnings disappointment Friday and before Citi and Merrill reveal whatever they’re going to reveal later this week.
But Goldman Sachs isn’t waiting to make its call: Earnings season has had an “awful” start and stocks will head downward this spring.
“Early signs are awful,” says a Goldman report out today. “We expect generally disappointing results and a swath of lowered profit guidance that will drive the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lower in coming weeks,” perhaps as low as 1,160, before a rebound by year’s end to around 1,380 — which would put the S&P down 6% for the year.
That’s a remarkably gloomy call for David Kostin, Goldman’s new chief forecaster — at least compared to his predecessor, the ever-optimistic Abby Joseph Cohen.
— Wachovia needs cash, and quickly. Ho-hum. The bank plans to float $7 billion in new shares and slash its dividend by 41%. It’s the second time Wachovia’s had to scramble for capital just this year.
Wachovia jumped into the adjustable-rate mortgage pool with both feet at the most frothy stage of the bubble in 2006 by purchasing Golden West — whose business was focused on one of the most airheaded states, California.
— But that’s just the beginning of the financials’ pain this week, as many of the top firms reveal first-quarter earnings… and probably more write-downs, too. Citigroup will likely write down $10 billion in debt this week…which would add up to a first-quarter loss of $3 billion. Merrill Lynch will likely write down another $5 billion, for a loss of $2.7 billion.
That’s still a drop in the bucket given that write-downs industrywide total $250 billion to date…and that everyone from George Soros to the International Monetary Fund is forecasting $1 trillion, give or take, by the time all is said and done.
— Citi’s announcement last week that it will unload about $12 billion in debt onto private equity at 90 cents on the dollar highlights another problem — one that’s “entirely separate from subprime mortgage lending,” writes Strategic Short Report’s Dan Amoss. “It’s another symptom of the credit bubble disease.”
The $12 billion is money Citi hoped to raise in the credit markets to finance leveraged buyouts. But when the credit markets seized up last summer, Citi had to take the deals onto its own books.
“Investment banks are stuck with an estimated $250 billion worth of this buyout debt on their balance sheets,” says Dan, “or in off-balance sheet entities for which they’ve made guarantees. Until they get rid of it, credit will remain fairly tight.
“Financial stock bulls point to this $12 billion sale as evidence that the leveraged loan sector of the credit markets is thawing. But I remain a financial stock bear, because this sale is only a tiny part of the market and only one of the many other credit-related problems plaguing investment banks.” For ways to play Dan’s skepticism, see the Strategic Short Report.
— Asian stock markets tanked overnight, fearing the worst from U.S. financials this week. Shanghai was down 5.6%, Hong Kong 3.5%, the Nikkei 3%.
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Tags: Beijing, Citi, Coal Prices, commodities, ethanol, food crisis, G7, Gasoline, GE, Goldman, Haiti, hedge funds, Medicare, olympics, recession, Retail Sales, Retirement Savings, Reuters, social security, WachoviaAbout the Author
Addison Wiggin is the editorial director and publisher of The Daily Reckoning, and executive publisher of Agora Financial. He is also one of the executive producers and writers of I.O.U.S.A. a feature length documentary film nominated for the Grand Jury Prize at the 2008 Sundance Film Festival.