Oil exploration experts have predicted that Brazilian oil find – the Tupi deposit and possible offshore fields nearby – may cost up to $240 billion to exploit.

But if the prospects turn out to hold $6 trillion of petroleum, they’ll kick the emerging market into the premier league, making it one of the world’s ten largest oil producers.

“There are those who will tell you that oil is a cyclical business and a global fungible commodity,” says Christian DeHaemer in Taipan Daily.

It rises and falls with the business phase. If you look at a hundred-year chart, it is as obvious as a sidewinder on a sand dune. A sine wave through time — up and down in seven-year cycles.

But there are others who believe in the “Peak Oil” argument, the ultimate end-game, like a Suburban crushing a Subaru at the end of a long hill. Peak Oil enthusiasts will point to long lists of numbers, detailed maps of known reserves, past prognosticators of genius, and declare with tinfoil-hat fervor that “we are running out of oil.”

I’ve read these books and listened to the speeches. The idea that there is a finite amount of oil on the planet, and we are near the point where we will extract less in the next hundred years than we did in the past. Makes sense to me, as does the business cycle. I don’t know if the hundred-year history of the oil cycle is over. There is always a “this time it’s different” ideology at the peak. But then again, sometimes, it is different.

What we do know — what isn’t in dispute — is that oil is expensive, and that by all accounts the easy oil has already been found and is being extracted at a furious pace.

And this has led the industrial countries on a desperate search for this ever-scarcer commodity.

Russia, China, India, Brazil, Canada, Europe and the U.S. are fighting an anxious and diminishing struggle for the last of the world’s hydrocarbons. Russia is sending submarines to plant national flags at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean. China has moved aggressively to acquire oil holdings from Kazakhstan to Somalia. India has gotten in bed with the genocidal regime of the Sudan to the tune a $45 billion natural gas pipeline. The U.S. is spending trillions in treasury and thousands in lives to make sure the oil flows from the Middle East.

The Guardian of UK fame recently reported that “money is no object as the big players grab what is left of a diminishing resource.” (This was after China’s Sinopec paid $1 billion for the right to explore for oil in deep water off Angola.) Just a few years ago, such a deal would have sold for a mere $35 million. But competition is fierce over the last remaining frontiers where vast quantities of oil might be found.

Martin Spring in Money Morning UK reports on another Brazilian energy find:

The newly-discovered Sugar Loaf field under the Atlantic off Brazil, claimed to be one of the world’s biggest, is primarily a natural gas resource. The Shtokman development in the Barents Sea off Russia’s Arctic coast, and several projects off the coast of north-west Australia, focus on production of gas, not oil.

There is also increasing interest in exploiting hard-rock resources that have been neglected in the past because it’s difficult to tap their gas. On the western slopes of the US Rockies, Exxon Mobil is starting to employ an explosive fracturing technique three times more effective than conventional technology to unlock the riches of the Piceance Basin.