Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Burning the House to Save Money

Aug 6th, 2009 | By Andrew Snyder | Category: Real Estate Investments

Just about every company that beat expectations recently did it by cutting costs and increasing margins. It may boost share price now, but it could create problems down the road.

The earnings figures released over the last month are absolutely hideous, scary really, yet Wall Street hails them as a sign of recovery and safety.

Revenues are at a fraction of where they were this time last year, yet they beat analyst expectations.

Earnings, if a company is lucky enough to find a profitable strategy, are down by figures like 80%, 90%, even 95%, yet shares are moving up. Investors figure even a couple of bucks in free cash flow is better than nothing.

But what so many investors and even analysts are overlooking is where the surprising figures are coming from. According to reports like today’s dismal same-store sales figures, the extra cash is not from spend-happy consumers.

Instead, companies are slashing headcounts, cutting services and doing absolutely anything they can to increase their margins. In other words, they are burning their house down to cut their electricity bill.

It is great in the short term, but what about the long-term effects?

Not going to be pretty

A perfect example of the recent phenomenon comes today from HSN, Inc. (NASDAQ:HSNI), a.k.a. the Home Shopping Network.

Shares of the couch-potato-friendly shopping channel are up by about 20% today on the news the company was able to cut costs and increase margins enough to squeak out a profit of $11 million even though revenues dropped by 8% during the quarter.

For some perspective, this time last year the company reported a loss of $249.8 million.

The comparison begs the question why didn’t the company cut costs last year when it was hemmoraghing cash?

Easy answer… it did not make strategic sense. It would have been detrimental to the company’s core business if it made a drastic cut to expenses.

So why did the company do it this time? It had no other choice. With credit tight and few signs of any worthwhile recovery, it was cut or be cut for HSN.

But that does not mean the reductions in spending are any better for the company now than they were this time last year. Chances are, we will see the detrimental effects well into the future, in the form of lost market share and slow growth.

For HSN and the plethora of other companies making the same margin-boosting reductions, the key variable will be if their cuts were less detrimental than their competitors’ cuts.

No time to think… just hope and  pray

When marketing, employee benefits and customer service expenses are reduced, there is no doubt it will have a negative impact on a company’s future growth. All there is do is hope its competitors cut just as much or more.

This is an ultra-important consideration for today’s investors. While the bulls may be rushing forward with no ultimate destination in mind, eventually the turnaround stories are going to come to an end and the markets will beg for organic growth.

The only companies adding to their shareholder wallets will be the firms actually able to increase top-line growth. These days, there are not too many of them out there.

Education companies like Apollo (NYSE:APOL) and Grand Canyon Education (NASDAQ:LOPE), which earlier this week announced a 72% top-line increase, are good candidates going forward.

So are companies like, I can’t believe I am going to write this, Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI).

If you can handle the throng of annoying, Howard Stern-obsessed shareholders and the risk associated with the penny stock, today’s report that the company managed to meet expectations and increase its top-line by 1% is some of the best news the company announced in a long time.

Basically it is like this: You can burn down your house to lower your monthly utility bills, but when it is time to crawl into bed, you may regret the move.

Just because a company manages to cut its costs further than expected does not mean its share price should rise. The bewildered market is making a lot of mistakes these days.

Source: Burning the House to Save Money


AdvertisementAt Hot Stock Confidential , we've averaged over 32% gains in just 26 trading days

42% on Nymox Pharmaceutical Corp....
23% on Emergent BioSolutions Inc....
38% on the first half of our position in a U.S. refiner...
26.68% on Synta Pharmaceuticals...

How's your favorite financial newsletter working out for you?

Hot Stock Confidential = Damn Good Stocks.

Learn more...

Tags: , , , , ,

By Andrew Snyder

Related Articles



About the Author

Andrew is a contributor to Daily Reckoning Australia and Today's Financial News.

See All Posts by This Author



Today's Financial News provides an independent and practical perspective on the U.S. and global investment markets. We provide you with a free, reliable, easy, up-to-date, and focused resource to help you make your financial decisions with commentary, interviews, recommendations, and video. Today's Financial News includes the analysis and opinions of those editors whom we have come to trust over the course of the years.

See All Posts from This Publication

Leave Comment