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Cash Dodges a Bullet

Apr 29th, 2008 | By Justice Litle | Category: Stock Market Investing

CASH: Nope. I’ve been doing this a very long time, and it’s rare to see a name with three starting strikes against it suddenly turn around and trade well.

JL: So after dodging that bullet, did your week end up ok?

CASH: Oh yeah. I’m all about this kind of market environment. Of the 10 deals that priced this past week — four IPOs and six secondary offerings — AWK was the only one that traded negatively. This points to a good bit of liquidity in the market, and is a good sign short-term for stocks in general. Additionally, it opens the door for more companies to follow suit and bring their stock to market, too.

JL: So does that mean you’re going to be working double shifts while the good times roll?

CASH: Yeah, you definitely have to seize the moment when the opportunity presents itself. Right now there are two IPOs and three secondary offerings on the calendar for the coming week…. if it’s anything like what we saw the last couple of weeks, that number will be higher by the time all is said and done.

JL: Anything that specifically catches your eye?

CASH: The secondary offerings have my attention this time around. For instance, MSCI Inc., a spinoff from Morgan Stanley in November, is coming back to market to offer more shares. I’m not a fan of the name long-term, but it should get some attention simply because of strong name recognition. Honestly, once the deal is complete and the hype is over, this could be an excellent short. But that’s more of a midsummer trade. We’ll have to come back to this name a little later.

JL: Gotcha. That sounds like the kind of name that would apply to a select group of our readers — the ones interested in getting a real-time look at your trading moves and top picks.

CASH: Here’s another one with a bit of broad appeal: Interactive Brokers (IBKR:NASDAQ) is pricing a secondary offering after announcing a great first quarter. The capital raised appears to be going to employees, directors and executives, so it won’t be expressly beneficial to the company. But the fact that the stock ramped higher on the announcement is a great sign.

JL: Is this a name you’ve followed for a while?

CASH: Actually, I’ve known this company since long before they were public. Their main offering is a platform that individuals can use to trade stocks, options, futures and many international markets. You could say they’re an “E-Trade on steroids.”

JL: Sure, I know ‘em well, too. I’ve got an account with Interactive Brokers myself. They let you trade just about every exchange on the planet. Their mandatory trading software isn’t for the faint of heart, though. Getting used to it is like stepping into an airplane cockpit.

CASH: Yep, those are the guys. They’re really oriented towards the pro or semi-pro trader and do very little handholding — great for some, but not so great for others.

JL: When did their IPO price again? I remember the news but not the date.

CASH: IBKR priced in May of last year. I’ve been pretty much watching them from the sidelines for most of the time, as the share price has had difficulty making headway. But as their earnings continue to grow and the stock stays flat, the value is building in the shares.

JL: So what happened to the stock in March? It looks like IBKR took a nasty swan dive.

CASH: They got caught along with every other financial company when liquidity dried up and the overall financial industry was gripped with fear. But these guys are no E-trade in another important way: They’ve got a ton of cash. The company has assured investors that it has ample capital to deal with counterparty risk, and their risk management systems are very good at closing out accounts before too many bad trades hit the balance sheet.

JL: Just like your early trading years.

CASH: Hey now, that’s not funny!

JL: Come on now, it’s at least a little funny. We’ve all been through that learning curve. The great Cash McDash wasn’t an astute trader from day one, was he?

CASH: True, true. We’ve all taken our lumps. But anyway, I think IBKR is potentially a good buy here, both from its technical break higher and its strong fundamental backdrop.

JL: And what about the rest of the new issues market?

CASH: The new issues market will likely stay busy for several weeks… but I think next week we’ll move over to the dark side and cover one or two new short ideas. I don’t want readers to get caught sipping the Kool-Aid and forget that we live in challenging times.

JL: Sounds like a plan. Talk to you then.


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By Justice Litle

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About the Author

Justice LitleJustice Litle is Editorial Director for Taipan Publishing Group. He is also a regular contributor to Taipan Daily, a free investing and trading e-letter, and Editor of Taipan's Safe Haven Investor and newly introduced research advisory service, Macro Trader.

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Taipan Daily is your free resource for late-breaking investment opportunities to help you beat Wall Street to the profits. Filled with investment analysis and insight from every sector. Taipan Daily delivers just the right blend of safe opportunities with the fast-moving plays, so you have an insider's edge over Wall Street and other investors.

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