Deutsche Bank announced late yesterday that they were pulling the plug on the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long ETN (better known as DXO). Most ETFs and ETNs die out because they can’t attract enough investors. DXO seems to have suffered the opposite fate.

In the new clampdown on commodity speculators, it’s no huge surprise to see the world’s most popular double-long, leveraged ETN fold suddenly. Deutsche Bank didn’t specifically claim that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission put the kibosh on the DXO, but their press release did cite a “regulatory event” as the principal reason for the closure.

Set to close on Sept. 9, DXO is now hemorrhaging. We’re not sure which is worse for share prices: its imminent closure or that it’s double leveraged a commodity that’s currently plummeting.

Deutsche Bank has other popular commodity trading vehicles, like DBA (agriculture) and DBC (general commodities), that could suffer a similar fate. Both of those funds rely on a position limit exemption, which the CFTC revoked last month. Caveat emptor.

“Anytime the government intervenes like this in the financial markets, they destroy efficiency,” says Resource Trader Alert’s Alan Knuckman. “The action by the CFTC to limit position sizes will only make the problem worse by decreasing liquidity. Markets need more speculators — not less — to lessen the impact by any one entity. For example, the elimination of short selling in the financial stocks in the fall of 2008 caused more damage by dragging out the inevitable for companies that made disastrously poor decisions.

“The CFTC will force trading to move to the over the counter market, which lacks transparency, or to foreign exchanges. Volume and open interest could decline here in the United States and make transacting business more difficult and costly in the future. The present tight bid/ask spreads ensure smooth market entries and exits for all. Without the ability to execute a solid trading plan efficiently, the risks increase for all participants.

“With the current and effective monitoring rules, we know exactly who and how players are positioned. Under the proposed political pandering, that data will disappear from the public eye.”

Source: ETF Reckoning Day?

Was it worth it? It has been nearly two months since ProShares released its 130/30 ETF (NYSE:CSM) based on the Credit Suisse index with the same name. Has the popular strategy been able to beat the overall market as so many investors had hoped for? Or is it yet another flimsy hype-driven ETF?

When the strategy first became popular, it was the talk of many investing circles. It was so popular, the ETF world could not resist creating a fund of its own. Now investors want to know if the increased leverage and expense of long-short strategy is worth it.

For a glimpse of the recent action, here’s a chart:

As you can see, the ETF holds up to its name and does indeed outpace the market. If you had bought shares at the inception and would sell them now, you would be ahead of the S&P 500. But not by much.

Any time we discuss ETFs or mutual funds, the first thing question you need to ask is, “What is this thing going to cost me?”

After all, it takes lots of people buying and selling stocks and pushing paper to run an ETF. And until Washington gets its way, none of them do it for free.

Too much for too little

Currently, the 130/30 ETF posts an expense ratio of 0.95%, not super expensive in the world of funds, but not cheap, either. The fee is an instant handicap for a fund that is fighting to beat a tough benchmark like the S&P 500.

Really, this ETF is the lazy man’s way of taking advantage of an otherwise sound strategy. If you cannot afford the time or don’t have the investment portfolio of the size needed for a high-quality 130/30 portfolio, you are better off buying a simple, cheaper market-based fund.

If, on the other hand, you can handle the rigorous research and trading involved in the strategy, chances are you will be able to outpace the benchmark by wider margins on your own.

To really outshine the markets, your investments need to be on the tails of the market curve. An index-based ETF like this one does not offer the leverage most 130/30 investors are truly after.

Once again, the ProShares 130/30 ETF is a marketer’s dream come true, but offers little that investors could not find elsewhere at a much better price.

Source: 130/30 ETFs: All Hype and No Reward?

If you are in the metals market, your eyes are certainly watching the action out of China. The more the country builds and expands, the higher its demand for anything that is pulled from the ground.

If you have been paying attention, you already know copper prices reached their highest prices since last October early yesterday. Buyers had to shell out $6,258 for a metric ton of the vital base metal.

While it is disappointing to see prices slipping today, it is no surprise. The commodities markets have often moved in lock step with the global equities market. And with mixed economic data coming from Beijing today, it is surprising prices are not down even further today.

Even with a few nuggets of less-than-expected data, China’s economy is one of the quickest expanding on the planet. Earlier today, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) made the not-so-bold move of increasing its GDP expectations for the country from an annual rate of 8.5% to 9.4%.

Many investors are starting to wonder if it is time for Beijing to begin unwinding its recent stimulus measures.

No matter what the government does in the next few months, there is no debating China is at the center of the world’s commodity demand. Its desire to expand is the lifeline keeping the sector afloat.

With virtually no chance of a major disruption in its role, China is making the commodity and mining sector a fine investment.

Go ahead, make your move

While I have recommended several optimized plays for TFN Strategic Trader subscribers, I know of plenty of investors looking for a plain-vanilla sort of way to play the situation.

Anytime we need simple, the ETF market is there.

The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining (NYSE:XME) fund gives investors a pure shot at one of the most potential-filled industries on the planet. The fund includes holdings of powerhouses like Massey Energy (NYSE:MEE), United States Steel (NYSE:X) and Titanium Metals (NYSE:TIE).

Between those three companies alone, investors get a shot at a recovery global economy.

Of course, ETFs are great investments for the set-it-and-forget-it investing crowd. But they are not for everybody. With diversification comes lowered risk and lowered reward.

And anytime you are paying somebody else to do your buying and selling, it will come with a cost. In this case, SPDR charges 0.35% of your position, a fairly low fee in a high-priced industry.

But if you have been watching the commodities sector on the sidelines, eager to make a move, and are unsure how to do it, I think you just found your answer.

ETFs are a great way to enter the investing world on a low-cost, low-risk basis.

Source: Use the ETF Market to ‘Mine’ Commodity Profits

I first recommended that Investor’s Daily Edge readers buy the silver ETF (SLV) on February 5th . I hope you followed my suggestion. SLV is up over 23% since then.

It’s not too late for you to get in. The white metal and its tracking shares are still a great buy.

Silver is a precious metal so it does great when people get worried about the market, inflation and geopolitical risk. Monetary inflation is already here. It is only a matter of time before price and asset inflation arrive as well. Silver is a hard asset that holds it value in inflationary times and will maintain its purchasing power.

Silver is also an industrial metal, therefore it goes up when global manufacturing activity picks up and should do quite well when we finally emerge from this economic crisis.

Silver is also in short supply and has limited above-ground stock-piles that are being depleted. Demand exceeds supply so prices for silver should continue higher. Finally, silver is in a technical uptrend.

You can buy silver bars or buy silver coins like American Silver Eagle bullion coins or Canadian Silver Maple Leaf coins. Physical silver can be stored in a home safe or in a secure hidden location that only you and another trusted person know about.

The Silver Exchange-Traded Fund (SLV) represents an easy way to invest in silver.  This ETF is very liquid and cost effective.

Silver can quickly blast above $20 per ounce or more. Make sure you own some.

Source: Next Stop for Silver: $20 Per Ounce

Indeed, its largest first-quarter investments included:

• $50.9 million in Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: VWO)
• $1.5 million more iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (NYSE: EWZ)
• $1.1 million more into in iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (NYSE: FXI)
• $877,700 into Van Eck’s Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (NYSE: RSX)
• $817,300 into iShares MSCI Mexico Index Index (NYSE: EWW)
• $390,400 more into iShares MSCI South Africa Index (NYSE: EZA)

Harvard’s fund also took a first-time, $45.5 million position in iShares MSCI South Korea Index ETF (NYSE: EWY), as well as two foreign titans – a $16.7 million stake in China Mobile Ltd. (NYSE ADR: CHL) and a $12.6 million stake in Israel’s Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd. (NASDAQ ADR: TEVA).

Obviously, an institution such as Harvard does its homework before making such an aggressive play call, and committing so much money to the emerging economies of the world – global regions whose stock markets took even bigger hits than the United States’ Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

Since the market bottomed out at 676.53 on March 9, the S&P 500 has gained an impressive 34.2%.

During that same span, however, the ETFs that received Harvard endowment dollars have handily trounced the performance of that U.S. bellwether index. Just as an example: Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF is up 58.1% and iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF has gained 51.2%.

And the overall MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (NYSE: EEM) – which measures a 26-country-tracking index of the same name – is up 55.2% since the bottom.

Emerging Market Professors

One of the market professors Harvard is listening to is Robert G. Doll Jr., vice chairman and chief investment officer for private equity fund BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK). Doll said earlier this week that the global economy has likely seen the worst of the worldwide financial crisis, and that developing economies are already emerging from recession.

“If, in fact, we have seen a bottom in markets and economies are going to recover, the emerging parts of the world will recover the most and the fastest,” Doll told Bloomberg News. “After all, their recessions were largely unwanted inventory build-up and not the credit bust in the Western world.”

Earlier this month, Doll said he believed the S&P 500 would fall from its current levels (which it had), and then rally to end the year at around 1,000 – for a gain of about 11%.

“Emerging markets, if they are going to do better than that, are going to do closer to 20%,” Doll said. “There are some that already have. Some have done better than that.”

A couple weeks before Doll’s vote of confidence, Mark Mobius, famed investor and head of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said that emerging-market stocks are building a base to enter a bull market at the end of the year, Bloomberg reported.

“We are at the base-building period for the next bull market,” Mobius told Bloomberg while attending a conference in Indonesia. “What I see happening is perhaps this continuing till the end of the year, and then a breakout.”

Many of these emerging and developing economies are on the cusp of breaking out, but are being held back by the drought of others. The ultimate catalysts that set them loose will be falling interest rates and easing inflation, Mobius said.

In the first week of May, about $4 billion was pumped into emerging-market equity funds. It was the largest weekly inflow since December and the eighth-largest on record, MarketWatch reported. Most of that went into ETFs, and long-term positions at that.

Not coincidentally, the specific countries seeing the largest inflows are represented in Harvard’s portfolio. Brazil posted its second-largest weekly inflow on record. China, India and Russia also saw huge gains, MarketWatch reported.

Those four markets – Brazil, Russia, India and China – comprise the so-called “BRIC” economies of the world.

Emerging Market ETF Plays

How to capitalize on emerging markets reemergence from recession depends on your risk tolerance. And risk levels can vary by country and investment sector.

Carl Delfeld, head of global investment advisory firm Chartwell Partners, noted that while the U.S. financial sector is the chief culprit of the global financial crisis, some healthy-capital foreign banks are currently very nicely positioned because they didn’t get involved in the bad U.S. debt, and because they have the fastest-growing growing base of consumers in the fastest-growing markets.

And a good way to play this trend could be the soon-to-be available Global Shares Dow Jones Emerging Markets Financial Titans ETF, Delfeld writes in the May 25 issue of Forbes magazine. Of the fund’s top-10 holdings, four are China-based, three Brazil and two India.

More speculative investors might be interested in another new ETF, the WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund (NYSE: CEW), a basket of 11 equally weighted emerging market currencies that are rebalanced every quarter.

The currencies in the fund are the Brazilian real, Mexican peso, Chilean peso, Israel shekel, Turkish lira, Polish zloty, Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee and the South African rand.

For more general plays on specific countries, Harvard’s list of new investments could be a good starting point.

Money Morning Contributing EditorHoracio Marquez recommended iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ) in his popular “Buy, Sell or Hold” column last October. It’s also one of the five emerging market ETFs that Money Morning’s Martin Hutchinson recommended earlier this year. Others included iShares MSCI Chile Investable Index (ECH), iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (EWT) and iShares MSCI Singapore Index (EWS).

Source: Looking For the Next Global Profit Play? Take a Look at These Emerging Market ETFs

Take the popular ProShares ETFs. ProShares give you the opportunity to buy and sell the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, Russell and more.  Overall, they mimic the price of these indices, minus a small fee or transaction cost.

And best of all, it’s an easy way to buy and sell trends through your usual broker or online account. No messy futures contracts, no complicated math — just a cheaper way to invest in the NASDAQ.

But what if I told you all ETFs aren’t created equally? And what if I told you that some ETFs might really hurt your overall ability to profit?

Today, I’ve got a word of caution for you: some of the funds you’re holding are destined to fail in certain market conditions. In fact, some are even planned to fail…

Let me explain…

The Double Long Danger

If you have ever invested in a double long or double short ETF, or even a triple long ETF, you might be setting yourself up for long-term disaster.

Here’s what I mean…

All ETF’s are created for a purpose. As I mentioned above, the popular index ETFs are used as a proxy for trading an up or down trend in an index. Using these Index based ETFs, you can speculate in the small-cap markets with Long/Short NASDAQ or Long/Short Russell, for example.

All of those “single long” ETFs are created to give you direct 1 for 1 exposure to your market of choice. And for our purpose today, those single long ETFs aren’t a danger since the risk associated with most broad based ETFs is minimal.

What I want to warn you about is a danger you might be unaware of in leveraged ETFs: double long, double short, ultra long and ultra short investment vehicles…

When most investors look at ETF’s, they look at them as safe bets. Investing in an ETF normally gets the same risk label as investing in a mutual fund. And for single long/short ETFs that may be somewhat true. But for more leveraged ETFs, like double longs/shorts, your long-term risk increases exponentially in certain market conditions.

A Real World Example of Double Long Disaster

Let’s assume that you (along with me) want to take advantage of the coming rise in the price of the NASDAQ. Well as you know there are plenty of ways to do that — but for this article we wont be talking about specific companies or growth opportunities. (If you want a fine list of those just ask my good friends Jim Nelson or Greg Guenthner, the editors of Penny Stock Fortunes.)

One great way to play the rise in NASDAQ prices would be a single long NASDAQ ETF. But with the arrival of double long ETFs wouldn’t making twice the gain on the index be better?

Maybe not.

You see, when it comes to leveraged ETFs, the proof is in the prospectus. These leveraged ETFs weren’t necessarily made for a normal buy and hold investor.

More specifically, these ETFs were made, for the most part, to mimic the leveraged outcome of daily movements. And for a long-term investor this could be a real anchor on your speedboat — especially in an up and down market.

Here’s the simplest example I can think of…

Let’s say you own a single long NASDAQ ETF, a double long NASDAQ ETF and a Double Short NASDAQ ETF. And let’s assume that you have a nice round $100 in each.

On the first day that you hold these ETFs, the NASDAQ rises 10%. Here’s what you’d have:

• The single long ETF would rise to $110
• The double long ETF would rise to $120
• The double short ETF would sink to $80

Pretty standard, right?  Well, here’s where it gets tricky…

Say the market now dips back down 10% the very next day…

• The single long ETF sinks to $99
• The double long ETF sinks to $96
• The double short ETF rises to $96

In an up and down market, leverage works against you. In other words, short-term volatility can eat away at any long-term gains. And if the market were to continue to oscillate, you would constantly lose money on leveraged ETFs. By day ten in the above example, you would have lost 4.9% in the single long ETF — but you would have lost a whopping 18.4% in both leveraged ETFs.

That’s a risk that you might not have known you were taking…all because some leveraged ETFs are planned to use daily movements. And if the market is especially volatile, keeping your money in a leveraged ETF could be financial suicide.

I’ll spare you the math of other examples (including dollar based examples instead of percentage based ones). But take my word for it — if you want to make double the action on the NASDAQ, it’s not as simple as buying the double long ETF.

Unless, of course, the NASDAQ never has a down day ever again…

Sincerely,
Matt Insley

Source: Why Your ETF May Have Hidden Risks

So now that gold has made a second major run – shooting from $600 an ounce to $900 an ounce after punching through the $1,000 plateau last year – is the “yellow metal” still a prudent profit play, or is it an investment that’s already played out?

To answer that question, we must first ask another: Is the global monetary mirage going to keep inflating, or are we already on a sound monetary footing?

Let’s find out.

The global financial crisis has all the world’s major currencies (the U.S. dollar, the euro and the Japanese yen) racing to devalue against each other. This phenomenon of competitive devaluations occurs when inefficiencies in one country weigh down its economy. Devaluing the currency is an old macroeconomic trick to quickly attain competitiveness against other trading partners. It’s a way of borrowing growth from a neighbor, taxing imports and subsidizing exports.

But this newfound competitiveness is short-lived if the devaluing country does not fix the underlying reasons that gave rise to the currency devaluation in the first place. Devaluing the currency makes imports more expensive, especially commodities. And higher commodity prices and less competition from imported goods gradually feed inflationary pressures into the system.

Those inflationary pressures eventually “eat up” the value of the devaluation. And at the end of this cycle, you are left not where you began, but poorer, because you have made the income and monetary savings of your population less valuable.

The U.S. Economy’s Uphill Climb

No doubt, we are facing a unique set of circumstances in the markets. We are facing a global recession that actually teetered on the brink of a depression.

While some might think that just recapitalizing the banks will allow the lenders to get back into the business of aiding growth by providing credit, the reality is that the financial blowup is a symptom of structural conditions that keep generating these imbalances over time.

Let me be more specific.

There are three important structural conditions afflicting the long-term economic health of America:

• The U.S. auto industry has fallen to international competitors.
• Huge Social Security imbalances and an out-of-control medical care system figure to siphon an increasing amount of capital out of the economy.
• And the onerous and incomprehensible U.S. corporate tax system will cause enough friction to slow economic growth.

When the United States couldn’t sell cars and other products abroad, it stimulated its internal consumption in order to keep the economy going. The U.S. auto industry barely subsisted while the rest of America subsidized it with abnormally low interest rates and overpriced cars. Foreign carmakers could underprice them – and with better cars to offer – helping them book large profits, even when manufacturing in the United States.

Over time, the falling market share – in an industry where economies of scale are the name of the game – kept increasing the financial pressure on the U.S. car industry, which was technically insolvent by the year 2000. And up until recently, members of the U.S. industry declined to take the hard medicine and restructure their failing business models.

All the government money in the world couldn’t help the U.S. auto industry without a vital restructuring. The end result will be a trimmed-down, leaner industry whose workers will have less purchasing power. That is a strong change that will not be reversed.

Likewise with the banking industry, capital alone won’t do the trick unless the banks remove the cancer that is eating away at the very foundations of this country’s economic system. Therefore, we’ll see a pared-down, de-leveraged financial system that will produce less secular growth, lower profits and lower employment than its inflated predecessor.

In addition, although the industry has been “stabilized” with massive subsidies (zero interest rates, wide open discount windows and U.S. Federal Reserve programs designed to bolster asset values) significant losses are still ahead, which will continue to be painful.

There’s one last problem: The U.S. government has yet to address the elephants in the bazaar: The massive inter-generational Ponzi scheme of Social Security and the massive and unsustainable healthcare system.

If we do not address these two problems seriously, without political pandering and without making the very tough choices we need to make, let the last one leaving the U.S. turn off the lights, because the population pyramid is too narrow at its base to sustain the millions of baby boomers retiring.

The Obama administration is being proactive in addressing these problems, but the measures it is employing are inflationary.

The Government’s Inflationary Arsenal

In order to prevent a widespread economic depression from fully unfolding, the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have resorted to a battery of very powerful measures.

These measures prevent the normal course that would have followed the blow-up of the huge unsustainable imbalances built over decades in the U.S. car industry, in the U.S. real estate market and more importantly in the Social Security and Medical Care systems.

In short, the Federal Reserve has resorted to:

• Lowering interest rates to near a range of 0%-0.25%. This effectively is a subsidy from savers to the financial institutions.
• And “quantitative easing.” That is, the Fed is buying U.S. Treasuries to drive their rates lower and to increase the money supply.

These are both merely ways of devaluing the dollar. Of course, the justification of engineering inflation is saving the U.S. banking industry and avoiding a dreaded deflationary spiral, a la Japan in the 1990s, which would mire us in 10 years of economic paralysis.

In effect, the U.S. government is trying to put out the fire with gasoline: Spending unconscionable amounts of money that it does not have, and financing that spending with record levels of debt. The short-term results of a boost in activity will be extremely costly.

Under this scenario, with a depression not in the cards, the market is rallying to adjust to mere recession pricing. But are we out of the woods?  The rampant spending and overzealous monetary easing will result in – you guessed it – inflation.

The Fed’s claims that it is ready and willing to act quickly in order to contain inflation when it finally appears just don’t seem realistic at this point. As a central bank that had to resort to such extraordinary measures just to sidestep the death spiral, could you really risk tightening the reins too much and too soon? No way. The Fed will have to be very slow in taking back the liquidity with which it has just flooded the market.

After all, it is much easier to spike rates later to stop inflation than to deal once more with a crumbling financial system.

Monetary management is more of an art than a science. The Fed doesn’t really know how much time – and to what extent – it will take for their measures to impact economic activity. It is driving while looking into its rearview mirror.  And with this amount of financial adrenalin and imbalances being corrected in the system, the likelihood of a monetary “soft landing” is slim to none.

This brings us back to gold.

With this prognosis, we know that the government’s policies will succeed in achieving what it truly intended: Creating inflation.

Therefore, gold is a necessary component of almost any portfolio. The problem is that the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) already has accumulated more gold than the rich countries of Switzerland or China. That means any move from the masses of investors to leave the metal will have a huge downward effect on it.

But, knowing this important technical risk, I would still be ready to invest if gold pulls back to the $800 an ounce level. From there, I’d keep building a prudent position, as we should see a price spike once inflation starts showing up in 12 months to 18 months.

Recommendation: Build a position in iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD), not to exceed 10% of the portfolio (**). Do so on pullbacks, and with a view of selling later once inflation shows up. That’s when the Fed will start hiking rates and reducing liquidity.

Source: Buy, Sell or Hold: iShares Gold ETF Will Sizzle When U.S. Stimulus Spurs Inflation

After all, this could easily just be a bear market rally. And bull markets rarely begin with a bear market rally and head straight higher.

Beware The Bear Market Trap

It makes sense to hedge against a renewed decline. Here’s why smart investors are doing so using inverse ETFs. Read on to find out what they are, how they work, and why you should consider adding one or two to your portfolio in order to protect it…

ETFs: A Safer, More Effective Way To Short The Market

Just a few years ago, investors who wanted to profit from a market/stock downturn had to borrow shares from their broker to short the asset in question. But today, betting against banks, small-cap stocks, or even entire market averages, is just one convenient ticker symbol away.

You can short the market by using an inverse exchange-traded fund (ETF).

And while I’m generally an investor who subscribes to the fact that stocks ultimately rise and produce solid, long-term gains, there are certain times when using inverse ETFs can be very appealing – particularly in the current market environment.

Exchange Traded Funds: A Brief Overview

Before we talk about the hedging advantages of inverse ETFs, let’s quickly review what ETFs are, and how they work…

• Exchange-traded funds are securities that closely resemble index funds, but are more flexible because you can buy and sell them during the day, just like common stocks.
• ETFs give investors a convenient way to purchase a broad basket of securities in a single transaction, offering the convenience of a stock along with the diversification of a mutual fund.
• From a humble start in the early 1990s, the ETF industry has exploded, particularly over the past several years. There are now over 700 ETFs, with $450 billion in assets.

And the advantages? ETFs boast several major ones over mutual funds and common stocks…

• Better diversification
• More flexibility
• Lower costs
• More liquidity
• Tax efficiency

Going Short The Smart Way With Inverse ETFs

Inverse ETFs (or short ETFs) are designed to move in the opposite direction of an underlying index. That means you profit when the benchmark tanks. The lower the underlying asset goes, the higher these funds advance.

Perfect for a bear market like this one.

Think of inverse ETFs as a type of insurance policy for your portfolio. Investing a modest amount in one of them can be a useful way to hedge against market declines, or protect your profits in certain asset classes.

And when an index or stock heads south (as we’ve seen many do with a vengeance recently), an inverse fund can help soften the blow – and in some cases, even generate enormous profits.

For example, on September 30, 2008, four days before the Dow went below 10,000, I sent a special newsflash to my ETF Authority readers identifying 14 securities that could skyrocket as the market heads south.

*Source: Bloomberg. Total returns from 9/30/08 – 3/5/09

As you can see, most of the inverse ETF have done exactly what they were designed to do in this rough market. And it doesn’t stop there…

Double Your Money with Inverse ETFs

Some ETFs can even return double the inverse of the underlying security. For example, if you buy shares of the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS) and the S&P 500 declines by 5%, SDS gains 10%. (Keep in mind that these funds compound daily, so if you invest for longer, the returns won’t line up exactly).

So how are these ultra-short funds able to double the inverse performance of indexes? Simple… by using leverage. The math doesn’t always work out exactly, but you can usually expect it to return double the inverse within a reasonable range.

The trade-off, however, is that these funds can be incredibly volatile – and if you’re wrong, you lose twice as much. So only consider going ultra-short if you have the stomach for it.

Why You Haven’t Missed Out on Short ETFs…

You may think you’ve missed the boat on short ETFs… but think again.

With the market coming off depressing lows, the current rally may simply be a “dead cat bounce” (which have been known to soar), as the market attempts to form a new bottom.

With this in mind, you may want to consider adding an inverse fund or two to help smooth out some of this unprecedented market volatility.

Good Investing!

Nathan Slaughter

Source: Inverse ETFs: How To Profit From The Bear Market Trap

A few weeks ago in the State of the Market special report, I cautioned the bears to look out for a sharp rally. The market was just looking for an excuse to rally. Enter Citigroup (NYSE:C) (which I suggested was worth taking a flier on in last week’s article) with word that they made money in the first two months of the year.

Here is what I would suggest. First, if you are looking at the short-term, I would look for the market to continue to rally over the next few weeks. Getting the indices out of the historic oversold level we reached a few weeks ago. Second, if I am looking at the long-term, I might be wading in at this point, but I would not be diving in headfirst will all my money allocated to stocks.

I know many investment professionals say you shouldn’t try to time the market, but I have to disagree with them. You don’t have to time the tops and the bottoms, but you certainly should be adjusting your asset allocation based on whether or not we are in a bear market or a bull market.

How do you know which one we are in? There are hundreds of answers for that, but a simple one that I have been using and testing is a crossover of the 6-month and 12-month moving averages for the S&P 500.

Look at the chart below. Over the last 20 years, had you loaded up on stocks when the 6-month crossed above the 12-month, you would have been heavily allocated to stocks from late 1994 until late 2000, heavily allocated to bonds from 2000 until early 2003, back into stocks from 2003 until early 2008, and then back to bonds. Is it perfect? Of course not. It doesn’t get you in at the exact bottom and it doesn’t get you out at the exact top. But it does have you in for the bulk of the move.

How effective would this S&P timing signal have been over the last six years? Well I looked at three portfolio scenarios after the last bullish signal in early 2003 until the end of 2008.

Scenario 1- all money was put into four equity ETFs- the Diamonds (NYSE:DIA) (the Dow), the Spyders (the S&P 500), the QQQQ (the Nasdaq 100, and the IWM (the Russell 2000). There was no timing used in this scenario, it was strictly buy and hold.

Scenario 2- 80% of the money was put into the four equity ETFs in scenario 1 and the remaining 20% was put into three different bond ETFs. This scenario also used a buy-and-hold strategy.

Scenario 3- using the simple timing mechanism mentioned above, 80% of the portfolio was in the four equity ETFs and 20% in the bond ETFs until March 2008. At that time, the funds were reallocated to 30% in the four equity ETFs and 70% went into the three bond ETFs.

So how would you have fared using this strategy? Look at the chart below. Assuming a starting value of $1,000,000, at the end of 2008, your buy and hold strategy for stocks would have produced an overall gain of 14% and the buy and hold strategy with bonds and equities would have gained 19%. The clear winner was the one that used the timing mechanism. This strategy would have produced an overall gain of 52%.

Notice on the chart how Scenario 3 trails the other two ever so slightly for the first four years, loses ground in 2007, but saves you massive pain in 2008.

Getting back to the original theme, as a short-term trader, I would be playing the long side of this market for the next few weeks with an eye on the earnings season that will start in approximately three weeks. As a long-term investor, I would be dipping my toes in the water for now, but I would wait for confirmation of the 6-month moving average crossing back above the 12-month moving average before changing my asset allocation back to mostly equities.

Source: Simple Timing Tool That Will Help You Protect Your Assets

He goes on to say, “But this talk will shift soon to the ‘now what’ questions of what to buy when we do reach that magical point.” Here Scott discusses the Mutual Fund’s cousin, the ETF, and how to take advantage of investing in one.

Many will shun individual stocks for the safety of mutual funds. And with the explosion of index funds, we’ve never had a larger variety of options to help us diversify. These index funds are designed to yield a return equal to that of a particular index. They allow you to purchase a variety of assets as a low-cost, passive-investment strategy. And there are a number of indexes that specify sectors, stock indexes and international markets.

It’s a powerful strategy that allows you to slice and dice the global economy in a risk-managed approach. But we don’t like to stop simply at reducing risk and diversification.

There’s another cousin to the mutual fund and index fund families that many investors have heard of but haven’t taken advantage of. If you own mutual funds, indexed or otherwise, you need to know if using exchange-traded funds (ETFs) makes more sense for you. Here’s what you need to know about ETFs, the close relative to your mutual funds…

Exchange-Traded Funds – Index Mutual Funds on Steroids

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were first introduced in 1993, and are based on index mutual funds. They use similar principles, but have fewer management and transaction costs associated with them.

Unlike mutual funds, which can be bought or sold only at the end of the day when NAV is calculated, you can trade ETFs throughout the day, just like a share of stock.

• Exchange-Traded Funds are a portfolio of shares that can be bought of sold as a single unit.
• You own a proportionate amount of the shares held, with some ETFs even allowing transfers-in-kind.
• They can range from portfolios that track broad global market indexes all the way down to very narrow industry indexes.
• Exchange-Traded Funds are becoming a preferred way for investors to get all of a mutual fund’s benefits, with none of the downsides.

Think of ETFs as mutual funds on steroids.

Exchange-Traded Funds Becoming More Popular

While exchange-traded funds are becoming more popular by the day, they weren’t always so highly regarded. In fact, the creator of The Vanguard 500 Index Fund was against them and vigorously attacked the possibility of their success. In the end, John Bogle ended up adding a whole series of ETFs to the Vanguard family.

ETF investments quickly competed against indexed mutual funds. By early 2007, over $400 billion was invested in over 300 ETFs in three general classes:

• Broad U.S. market indexes,
• Narrow industry or “sector” portfolios,
• And international indexes.

The first ETF, like the first indexed mutual fund, matched the S&P 500 index and was given the symbol SPDR for Standard and Poor’s Depository Receipt. Many know it by its nickname, the “spider.”

Spiders spawned many new exchange-traded fund products like “Diamonds” that are based on the Dow Jones Industrial Index DJIA, Qubes based on the Nasdaq 100 index, and WEBS based on the World Equity Benchmark Shares of a portfolio of foreign stock market indexes.

The Advantages of Exchange-Traded Funds Over Indexed Funds

A big advantage of an exchange-traded funds over a conventional index fund is that they trade continuously throughout the day. You can buy and sell ETF shares just like a share of stock, while with an indexed mutual fund – where the net asset value is quoted – you have to place an order to buy or sell but that doesn’t transact until after the market.

This can be frustrating if your technical analysis indicates a buy or sell trigger at some point during a trading session but the market moves too far for you to take advantage of it by the end of the trading day.

And unlike mutual funds, exchange traded funds can be sold short of purchased on margin like a share of stock.

When you analyze these factors in light of the fact that options also trade on exchange-traded funds you can place positions in the general market, global market, or industry sectors, where you can:

• Employ protective hedges with puts or calls on your long or short ETF portfolio.
• Use combined buy-write options strategies where you collect premium from the short sell of an option to compensate for the cost the long options – bull and bear spreads, calendar spreads, diagonal spreads, butterflies, iron condors and so on, are all available to you trading ETFs but NOT with indexed mutual funds.

Exchange-traded funds also have tax advantages over mutual funds:

• When large numbers of mutual fund investors redeeming their shares – but you don’t – the fund has to sell securities to meet the redemptions. This creates a capital gains tax that is passed on to the remaining shareholders.
• Which means you end up paying the other guy’s tax obligation!
• In an exchange-traded fund, when somebody else sells, they have to pay the tax, not you.
• And when very large trades redeem their positions in the ETF, the transactions is settled with shares of stock in the underlying portfolio – not triggering a stock sale by the fund sponsor and no bogus tax bill to you.

Using Exchange-Traded Funds: How to Put Your Index Mutual Fund on Steroids