Baltimore (TFN): Today’s the day. If you have ever hunted for undersea gold, you likely know Mel Fisher’s famous mantra. The great shipwreck hunter used the line thousands of times before it became the undeniable truth on the day he uncovered the “Atocha mother lode.”
David Rosenberg, chief economist for Gluskin-Sheff, is a contrarian with a superior intellect than our own. That’s why we hang on most every word he says.
Our trip to Paris served as a brief distraction from the “good news” chatter that MSM floods us with. “Global confidence index holds at record high as signs recession has ended,” reads Bloomberg. Yesterday, Chairman Ben indicated that the recession is over, sending stocks and commodities higher.
In the spirit of not suffering from confirmation bias, in today’s Notes we will try to make the bearish case against gold. So before you storm Notes HQ in Buenos Aires craving blood, hear us out. Many of our staff here love gold and have long term holdings.
Economist Joseph Stiglitz doesn’t think too highly of the green shoot talk either. On Thursday he told reporters that, “It’s not clear that the U.S. is recovering in a sustainable way”.
We received a letter snooty letter recently accusing us of confirmation bias. Maybe we are only capable of seeing the bearish side of the story?
Say goodbye to the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Writing in the Washington Post, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says America’s massive deficit means a new global reserve system is approaching.
Is this the beginning of a new bull market or just a last-gasp bear market rally? We just don’t know. We’ve got a hunch is all. According to value investing guru David Dremen, it doesn’t matter much, either.
Where are we now? Still in the Twilight Zone economy as far as we’re concerned. US stocks ended strongly on Friday. And they’re set to rise again today if Europe’s strong morning performance is anything to go by. Commodities are up too. Nymex crude oil futures are at $74.24 a barrel at writing. Gold is trading at $953.50 an ounce – not far off Friday’s one-week high.
Two years into our “Great Recession” (or “Greater Depression,” depending on who you talk to) gold is selling for $944 an ounce. But back in 1980 – against the backdrop of double-digit inflation in America and a prolonged economic stagnation – gold reached a peak of $850. That’s the equivalent to about $1,900 in today’s money.