Monday, November 23rd, 2009

China’s Homeowners Get a Boost, But That Won’t be Enough

Oct 22nd, 2008 | By Irwin Greenstein | Category: Financial News

As China’s stock markets take a nose dive, the government has embarked on a plan prop up the underpinning of its share-buying public.

Beijing is now focusing on helping homeowners buy and keep their properties in the face a global real-estate meltdown.

Whether or not this is enough to sustain some kind of rally on the Hang Seng Index (HSI:HKG), which has dropped 51.4% over the past 52 weeks, is truly doubtful.

Beijing’s maneuver comes at a time when Asian stocks slumped to their lowest since December 2004 on fears that government bailouts may not be enough to prevent a worldwide recession. And with China’s reliance on exports to the West, concerns run deep on the country’s ability to sustain its blistering rate of growth.

Despite worries, China’s commercial real-estate market sees no signs of letting up.

In July, Merrill Lynch raised China’s three-year infrastructure projections from $400 billion to $725 billion – an increase of 81.2%.

Now China must focus on the cash flow of its expanding middle class to ensure that they keep spending.

The China Daily reported that up to 18 Chinese cities have unveiled plans to boost their property market, which have seen at least four months of consecutive drops in housing prices.

What Beijing has in store is plan that could lower property taxes and relax lending rules – injecting more liquidity into the economy.

Over the years, home ownership in China has taken off in part due to the Chinese infatuation with fixed assets. Tower apartment complexes opened a whole new world to people who rode the updraft up the Chinese economic miracle.

China’s residential real estate has been on a tear since 2000, mirroring the boom in the U.S. and Europe. Real estate purchases were part of a luxury spending spree that also included cars, jewelry and travel.

To prevent run-away inflation, Beijing introduced higher taxes and related fees in 2007. In addition, it tried to discourage speculation by imposing triple-digit mortgage rates on second homes.

Now the country is seeing real prices drop as much as 72% year-over-year in some of the most desirable regions. As values decline, real estate no longer becomes a reliable fixed asset investment – the same theme that now has most markets everywhere in the throes of a recession.

Whether or not this is enough to turn around China’s stock markets remains doubtful. There may be a slight uptick, but global market forces are conspiring to keep China tied to the rest of the world.


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By Irwin Greenstein

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