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China’s Market Deflating, Rice Skyrockets and More!

Mar 29th, 2008 | By Addison Wiggin | Category: International Investing

U.S. markets fall while China soars but is your money still better off in the Far East? Another commodity skyrockets, why this latest run-up might put blood on the streets. Tech losses continue, Nasdaq falls but one report shows the potential for massive tech rebound. Former Bear CEO cashes out, how much Jimmy Cayne lost, and what it means for the future of BSC. The first subprime accounting snafu emerges, how KPMG might be the next Arthur Andersen.

Stocks on Wall Street took a beating yesterday, but on the other side of the Earth, the Shanghai exchange soared… up nearly 5%.

Rumors suggest the Chinese government may enable gamblers worldwide to trade futures on the Shanghai Composite. And up she went.


If you haven’t been paying attention, the mainland Chinese market has been witnessing some serious bloodletting for the past five months. The Shanghai Composite is down 40% from its all-time high set in October 2007.

In the last month alone, the SSE has suffered a textbook 10% correction:

After putting U.S. markets to shame in 2007, Chinese stocks are looking less attractive by the day in 2008. If you’ve got the cajones to trade futures on that market, more power to you.

Also of concern in the Far East, rice prices skyrocketed overnight. Since we mentioned the rising cost two weeks ago, rice has risen as much as 30%.

Yesterday alone, traders goosed the price double digits after Egypt — a leading rice producer — announced a ban on rice exports. Global stockpiles have dropped to levels not seen since Carter entered the Oval Office.

Following Egypt’s decree, the Philippines announced a massive purchasing plan to shore up reserves. India installed additional restrictions on rice exportation. Vietnam officials vowed to cut exports, and Cambodia followed suit.

China, as we’ve come to expect, added its own twist. The government promised to pay farmers more than market price for their rice in order to grow stockpiles. They’ll need extras supplies for the Olympic hordes they’re pining to impress.

Thus, the price of Thai rice, the global benchmark, has doubled since January.

Rice trades a bit differently in the U.S. But a quick look at futures in Chicago and we think you’ll get the idea:

The price has doubled, to $19 per 100-pound contract, in a little over 15 months. At this pace, you’ll see blood in the streets in many of the world’s poorest nations before the end of the year.

The U.S. stock market resumed its losing ways yesterday. The Dow and S&P 500 both fell around 1%. In keeping with the trend, a down day for the Dow spelled an even worse day for the Nasdaq. The tech index fell nearly 2% on a Google downgrade and poor earnings guidance from Oracle.

J.P. Morgan released its 2008 Global Internet Snapshot this morning. It paints a surprisingly optimistic future for global “tech.” Here are some highlights:

Cell phones: For every 100 U.S. citizens, 77 have a cell phone calling plan. In Italy and Hong Kong, there are 135 mobile subscriptions for every 100 people. The global average? Only 41 out of every 100 citizens subscribe to cell phone service.

Mobile phone users are growing at an annual rate of 27%… Indian cell phone users grew by 84% last year alone. Computers: For every 100 Americans, there are 80 PCs. Global PC ownership is a humble 13 for every 100.

Internet: 1.3 billion people now have reliable access to the Internet, thanks to an annual growth rate of over 20% during the last eight years. Yet global Internet advertisers spent only $40 billion last year, 6% of the total estimated worldwide advertising expenditure.

If the global economy doesn’t melt down completely, cell phones and computers still look like a long-term growth opportunity. The trick is finding the right players.

Former Bear Stearns bridge champion and part-time CEO Jimmy Cayne sold every last one of his BSC shares yesterday. Cayne unloaded some 5.7 million shares at $10 a pop for a net “profit” of $61 million.

In a shocking twist, Bear stock fell about 4.5% in aftermarket trading.

Two years ago, Cayne became the first Wall Street CEO to own a $1 billion stake in his own company. Now that he’s cashed out and the stock has ticked down… what are the odds of J.P. Morgan continuing to woo the failing bank above $10 per share?

The Fed took on $75 billion worth of mortgage-related securities in exchange for U.S. Treasuries yesterday.

In its first and much hyped TSLF, our lender of last resort allowed banks and brokerage houses to unload their toxic mortgage-related investments for government debt… for a mere 0.3% rate of interest. We’re sure our grandchildren will thank you for the effort when they get the chance.

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More on this topic (What's this?) Read more on Investing in China, Rice at Wikinvest

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By Addison Wiggin

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About the Author

Addison WigginAddison Wiggin is the editorial director and publisher of The Daily Reckoning, and executive publisher of Agora Financial. He is also one of the executive producers and writers of I.O.U.S.A. a feature length documentary film nominated for the Grand Jury Prize at the 2008 Sundance Film Festival.

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