China 2009: More Of The Same
Dec 23rd, 2008 | By Irwin Greenstein | Category: Emerging MarketsInvestors interested in putting their money into China next year may want to look elsewhere for potential gains. It seems that 2009 will be a repeat of 2008, according to a story in today’s People’s Daily.
The news organ of the China’s Communist Party cited the China Securities Journal as saying that the global financial crisis will continue to exert pressure on China’s economic health.
The forecast was produced at the recent Central Economic Working Conference. The agenda of the meeting was to set the economic keynote for 2009 as “maintaining growth, boosting domestic demands and adjusting the economic structure,” the People’s Daily reported.
The annual conference is held from Dec. 8 to Dec.10. It helps Beijing set economic goals and reforms for the coming year. Six new challenges were identified for next year in order to maintain growth for the Chinese economy.
First, there was recognition by members of the conference that the international financial crisis will continue batter the country.
Second, both domestic inflation and deflation both domestically and abroad will make planning difficult.
Third, the stock market and real-estate market in China will continue to fluctuate and the possibility of real estate prices dropping will be very high.
Fourth, the living conditions for small and medium-sized enterprises will further deteriorate.
Fifth, the employment situation will continue to deteriorate.
And sixth, the conference expressed difficulty in trying to maintain a balanced national budget.
Some areas of investment for Beijing include agricultural production, employment, social welfare, education, health care, energy conservation and emissions reduction, technical innovation, manufacturing efficiencies and subsidies for entrepreneurs.
The government will also expand social services for the urban and rural poor.
As we’ve seen, China is now a bellwether for the global economy. Based on the results of the conference, investors can expect more of the same in 2009.