Could Ireland Go Bust and Become the Next Iceland?
Posted on: Jun 1st, 2009 | By Contrarian Profits | Filed under Notes From the Investment Underground
The brave new world has already arrived in Ireland, where your co-editor is currently based. Ireland exemplifies the boom-bust economics that has shattered the global economy.
When I left the country in 2006, the place was awash with excess – property developers ferried themselves around in helicopters, private bars served €20 cocktails, the roads were full of top-of-the-range BMWs, Mercedes and Aston Martins. Now the bubble has burst and the Irish are baying for blood.
Ireland’s fall from grace was nothing if not spectacular. According to The Economist, the economy probably shrank by 2.5% in 2008 and may contract by another 6.5% this year. Unemployment has jumped from 5% to 10.4%, faster than America’s decline. Meanwhile, Irish banks are blighted by souring property loans. And a crisis in public finances has forced the government to add an extra income tax levy on all its citizens to plug a hole in the public finances.
Of course, all this is putting huge pressure on Irish sovereign debt. The yield on Ireland’s ten-year government bonds, at about 6%, is way above that of Germany, at about 3.2%. And the state has gone even further than the US in guaranteeing banks’ toxic debts worth two to three times annual GDP. According to Goldman Sachs, total losses could reach $27 billion, or 10% of GDP.
The federal budget deficit is expected to be $1.8 trillion this year. That is $6,000 for every man, woman and child. Does anyone think this living beyond our means is money well spent? Sent your comments, thoughts and rants to info@contrarianprofits.com.
This well and truely is the Banana Republic – it is a semi corrupt country and has been for the past few decades. Why the hell should any person pay €500k for a 2 bed apartment in cental Dublin when the same apartment in Berlin is €100k? The individuals telling people “nows a good time to buy” when they knew things were in meltdown are still in the top jobs in government, banks, unions etc. Small businesses compain their businesses are suffering – really this is only because they were charging over the odd prices and now have no customer base. But in reality everyone is to blame – i.e. the usless government, corrupt bankers, fat cat business men, dodgey developers, corrupt officials, the church etc and the ordinary civilians of Ireland who didn’t think for themselves and bought into the property ladder mentality.
Lets be clear there are no green shoots of recovery here in Ireland – even though the usual suspects are saying the recession is slowing . Is it???? Unemployment has risen 130% in the past 12 months and is now over 400,000 and we have no industry – what made us falsely rich was “property” -i.e. selling each other usless over inflated apartments – it was a pyrmiad scheme. We also have to pump €7,5 billion into one bank Anglo Irish Bank aswell as AIB and BOI. We will be paying for this for a decade to come, so do not be fooled by the bullshit talked about by the usual fat cats.
This is what central economic planning gives us folks. The Soviets learned the hard way and I guess everyone else is too. Or not. Unfortunately everyone seems to put the blame everywhere except where it ought to be — squarely on the shoulders of central bankers and the government. If Ireland, or any other nation, wants to fix their economies it really isn’t that difficult to do. Reduce government spending on everything from welfare (especially welfare) to defense to everything else. Ireland ought to privatize more of their services, slash regulations, slash taxes on everything by 50% and reduce state spending by more than 50%. Next allow the market to correct. Let “toxic assets” be dealt with through the market function of bankruptcy. That €500k flat in Dublin would likely see a drastic reduction in price if allowed to go through the painful market process of bankruptcy. Yes, there will be losers but with every loser there is a winner. Those that made bad investments will be punished by market forces whereas those that made good investments, ie. they saved more and didn’t dive into the housing bubble, will be rewarded with cheaper assets.
By cutting regulation, spending and taxes more money will be in the hands of productive citizens. By allowing the market to correct the situation instead of the government propping everything up we would quickly see prices correct and production shift from non-productive bubble activity to actual production and growth.