Weak Data Will Send Dollar To New Depths
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The Daily Reckoning’s currency expert Chuck Butler says the dollar is being taken to the woodshed. The greenback is losing ground against all major currencies as the credit crisis continues to wreak havoc in the U.S economy. Chuck says disappointing inflation or retail sales data this week will send the dollar to new depths…
So… The euro reached a new record high overnight of 1.6038! WOW! This was reached based on the fears that credit problems in the U.S. are going to put the kyboshes on what little economic growth we now have. But the shine on the euro was rubbed out by a very weak ZEW… German Investor Confidence as measured by the think tank, ZEW, fell to a record low this month on the surging inflation problems, and rising interest rates. So for now, the euro is back below 1.60, but hear me now and listen to me later… This ZEW will soon be in the rear view mirror, and the euro won’t have that albatross around its neck as it revisits its overnight high…
And don’t look now, but the Aussie dollar is up to 98-cents! WOW! I’ve said for about 8 months that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the A$ at parity to the green/peachback… It certainly has that parity look about it does it not? The last time the A$ was 98-cents was 1983… 25-years ago… 1/4 of a century, and all that!
The U.K. pound sterling is back to $2, which seems totally unlikely an event as possible, but it has happened, so, go on and crow if you thought I was wrong to say the pound was going to have problems once the Bank of England (BOE) started its rate cut cycle…
And the Canadian dollar / loonie has crept back to parity! It’s been a long, time coming… It’s going to be a long, time gone… (a little CSNY)…
And, the poor, downtrodden, Japanese yen, is at the bottom of the 105 handle, and looking like it wants to trade with a 104 next to it! I had to laugh at a story I saw flash across the screen… The title was… “Yen may gain as Bank of Japan (BOJ) is more likely to raise rates than the Fed”. Now that’s funny! Ok, stay with me on this… A month ago, the dollar was getting bought like Pet Rocks because Fed Chairman, Big Ben Bernanke hinted that he was going to be an inflation fighter, thus interest rates would go higher… But here we are a month later, there’s been no sign of Big Ben the inflation fighter, and now it’s deemed that the BOJ could raise rates before the Fed!
And the dollar bulls wonder why their currency is getting sold like funnel cakes at a state fair? Why don’t the dollar bulls give Big Ben a call on the telly, and see if he can’t help them out? Oh… That’s right, Big Ben doesn’t take calls from just anyone… According to our friend, Jim Rogers, on his Bloomberg TV interview yesterday morning… “Ben Bernanke and Paulson only take calls from their Wall Street Buddies”… HA!
Speaking of Jim Rogers… He was full of you know what and vinegar yesterday morning… He didn’t pull any punches and said what was on his mind… You should have seen me here at the trading desk, Jim Rogers would say something, and I would clap and hoot and holler! At one point, Rogers said that the Gov’t’s plan to rescue Freddie and Fannie was “an unmitigated disaster”…
So… Remember early in the year when I kept telling you that there would be another “risk event” this year, and then we had the Bear Stearns meltdown, but that wasn’t it for the “risk events” , and I kept harping that there would be more? Well… It’s not like I was wishing, and hoping and thinkin’ and praying for these things to happen… I was simply pointing out that the world today has too many “risk events” all over, and with the credit woes in the U.S. and the housing and mortgage meltdowns, I just figure it would touch here a few times.
Anyway… What I’m trying to get at here is simply that these are the things I kept telling people to protect themselves from by diversifying into currencies and precious metals… I also, recall, the wink, wink, I gave you when Gold was trading below $900 about a month ago… Today, Gold is $983!
OK, enough with all the “I told you so” talk! Let’s talk about today… Well, today has “risk” written all over it! Big Ben goes to the “hill” to talk to lawmakers about the economy and Fed direction… You have to think that before the Meltdown last week of Freddie and Fannie (see more talk about them, I just can’t leave them on the side of the road!), that Big Ben would go to the “hill” and talk the inflation fighter talk… But now… Not now… Not with the financial sector in meltdown mode… So this is a double-edged sword… If he doesn’t go and sound hawkish, then the markets will take that as no rate hike is coming and take the dollar to the woodshed again… (you would think by now that the dollar would have gotten used to these beatings!)
Besides Big Ben, we get a ton-o-data today… PPI for June… Retail Sales for June… And Business Inventories for May… Retail Sales is the Big Kahuna of data today… And I would think that given the tax rebate checks that were still being mailed in June, Retail Sales would remain somewhat robust… Wait till July’s number, I saw all the shopping bags from my beautiful bride’s trip to Chicago this morning! But that’s for next month! For now, PPI poses a treat to future Consumer inflation, so this one plays big too…
If any of this stuff comes in worse than expected, we could see the dollar not only get taken to the woodshed, but told to go pick the switch that it will get beaten with.
Source: Credit Woes Sink The Dollar!
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Tags: Albatross, aussie dollar, Australian Dollar, Bank Of England, Bank Of Japan, BOJ, Canadian Dollar, Chuck Butler, credit crisis, Csny, Daily Reckoning, euro, Greenback, Investor Confidence, Japanese Yen, loonie, Losing Ground, Parity, Pound sterling, Rear View Mirror, Retail Sales Data, Rising Interest Rates, US housing crisis, US inflation, US recession, WoodshedAbout the Author
Chuck Butler, is the author of The Daily Pfennig, which is republished at The Daily Reckoning. His respected analysis is frequently quoted in or referenced by: the Wall Street Journal, U.S. News and World Report, CBS Market Watch, USA Today, CNNfn, the Chicago Tribune and many other publications.
The Daily Reckoning offers a "uniquely refreshing" perspective on the global economy, investing and the ability to live well in uncertain times. You will learn what you can expect from today's markets and how to prosper in the face of uncertainty.