Crude Oil Prices Hit $146… Who’s to Blame?
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Anyone reading the financial press must feel like they’re trapped in a particularly grueling version of Groundhog Day. Crude oil prices just keep on rising.
Today, the black goo hit $146 a barrel. Traders took fright, it seems, at a drop in US stockpile. Crude oil prices are now up a whopping 55 percent since the beginning of the year.
But is supply and demand really the culprit? Hank Paulson thinks so. He says supply and demand is the “predominant factor.”
“[It] is the fact that global production and capacity has not increased appreciably over the last 10 years and the demand has continued to grow and inventories are at low levels,” said Hank in London.
Andrew Gordon in Investor’s Daily Edge is not so sure. He says speculators are to blame, in part at least, for crude oil’s dizzying ascent.
Should crude oil prices have risen past $140 a barrel? No way, says Andrew.
Not when the high-end costs of producing oil is in the $55-70 range. Sure, there’s been a worsening of the supply-demand equation, but it’s been marginal. I believe the price of oil should be around $100-110.
The reason why it has gone WAY UP is the speculative oil bubble. Some hedge funds dove in and shorted on the fundamentals but forgot that they were at the same time creating a speculative monster. They weren’t just investing in the oil market. They were becoming the market. Without that critical realization, they underestimated the top of the market and were punished … forced to cover their bets … and suffered staggering losses.
However, Dave Gonigam in The Daily Reckoning says the reality supply simply isn’t keeping up with demand. “The world’s biggest oil fields are in decline,” says Dave, “and new ones aren’t coming online nearly fast enough to pick up the slack.”
Of course, you could always blame the Fed for ridiculously high crude oil prices. Martin Hutchinson in Money Morning does…
The reason for this intense advance in commodity prices is that the Fed and its European counterpart have been pumping money into their respective economies to prevent the collapse of several major banks. The St. Louis Fed’s “Money of Zero Maturity” (the best broad money-supply measure left over since the central bank stopped reporting M3 money-supply statistics in March 2006), is up at an annual rate of 17.6% during the last six months. In Europe, Euro M3 is up at an annual rate of 10.8% during the same period - still double the growth seen in nominal gross domestic product (GDP).
Regardless of who’s to blame, what should investors do about high oil prices?
One option is to buy into gold. Gold prices have been rising lockstep with oil recently, as investors seek a hedge against inflation.
Brian Hunt in DailyWealth has issued a “trading alert” on gold in his Market Notes column. He says gold prices could be in for a huge jump soon.
Gold and oil respond similarly to inflationary pressures… so the two tend to trade in a “range” together. Over the past 25 years, one ounce of gold has bought, on average, 15 barrels of oil. When an ounce of gold can buy 20 barrels of oil, it’s expensive and due for a fall. When an ounce of gold can buy less than eight barrels of oil, it’s cheap and due for a rise.
Right now, an ounce of gold buys you just 6.5 barrels of oil – less than half its traditional purchasing power. As you can see from today’s chart, the “rubber band” is pulled extremely tight.
There’s no guarantee this trade will work out quickly. But it’s worth keeping on the radar. If oil stubbornly refuses to correct from its levels above $140, gold could easily pop up to $1,000 and beyond in just a few days.
A unique way of investing in the yellow metal is through ‘e-gold,’ says Ian Davis in The Growth Stock Wire — invest in companies that recycle gold from electronic waste.
Options here include big players such as Waste Management (WMI) and Republic Services (RSG).