Sunday, November 22nd, 2009

Does China Make a Better Investment Than the U.S.?

Feb 11th, 2009 | By Irwin Greenstein | Category: Emerging Markets, Financial News

Now that China has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s biggest car market, investors should be asking themselves if China is simply a better place to put their money.

We’ve been cautioning readers against expecting any near-term returns in China under the current economic malaise. With unemployment at record highs, a 100-year drought crippling agriculture and exports at a mere trickle, China is not the place to be right now.

But looking out on the horizon, we wonder if China should be your primary investment destination for potential long-term returns.

Car data for January 2009 certainly suggests a strong bias toward China.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Tuesday that 735,000 vehicles were sold in China in January. That surpassed the 656,976 vehicles sold in the U.S. the same month.

While car sales slowed in China along with most other countries, U.S. sales plunged 37% in January to a 26-year low. Meanwhile, vehicle sales in China dropped 14.4% from a monthly record 860,000 in January 2008.

January sales were 0.8 percent below those in December, and below the 790,000 some analysts had anticipated.

Last week, Mike DiGiovanni, General Motors Corp.’s (GM) executive director of global market and industry analysis, forecast that China’s car sales could hit 10.7 million vehicles in 2009, more than his estimate of 9.8 million unit sales in the U.S.

China is certainly a major market for G.M. but the company is also losing market there. In October 2008, Toyota (TM) beat out G.M.’s Chinese venture as the number-two auto maker in China for the first nine months of the year. VW/Audi holds the coveted top spot in China.

If you’re interested in securing your financial future, you may want to contact your broker about ETFs and other funds based on Chinese equities.


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By Irwin Greenstein

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