Don’t Get Screwed, Buy Oil ETFs
Mar 5th, 2009 | By Steve McDonald | Category: Featured, Oil Investment & Alternative EnergySteve McDonald of Investors Daily Edge doesn’t want to see you get ripped off at the gas pump again. He recommends two Oil ETFs that will play out as part of the “the best buying opportunity since the market collapse of the late 70’s.”
This from Steve:
It’s time to stop worrying about the bottom of this market and start taking advantage of the carnage the gross mismanagement of this country’s affairs has left us. Oil is a good place to start.
$40 Oil? Are you kidding me? This is what I call a slap in the face investment. It’s so obvious it’s hitting you in the nose.
This temporary worldwide slow down, and it is temporary, has pushed oil down to a point most people never thought they’d see again. After all the speculation driven price increases of the past few years, it is a nice break, but it won’t last long.
Oil at this price isn’t reasonable. Some of the price drop is the typical over reaction by investors because the run up to the $147 range was so over done. This sell off has created one of the greatest money making opportunities, ever.
The reality of the situation is that OPEC will only put up with these prices for so long. Forget about all the technical data, the opinions of the talking heads and supply/demand numbers, the price is going up.
The best guy I know in the business, a commodities analyst with a group in Chicago says oil should rise to at least $75 in 2009. One way or another OPEC will raise prices. They have to; they need the money.
The problem with not having an energy policy for the past 40 years is that we are wide open to the demands of energy exporters. If they decide they are going to raise the price of oil, they can. Whether it’s because of manipulation, production, consumption or nothing, it will go up. Just look back to 1974 to see how it can be done.
We are doing virtually nothing to reduce our dependence on imported oil, unless you consider this administration’s rhetoric as doing something. The developing world will shortly resume its huge demand for oil and other commodities, and $75 a barrel will be cheap.
Rather than get caught again with your pants down at the gas pump, lets look at how to turn the tables and make money on this run up.
Investing in oil companies has never been my favorite way of making money on oil. They tend to be very diversified and their stock price rarely tracks oil’s price closely. I prefer two ETF’s.
The first one is the USO, not the serviceman’s group, but the United States Oil Fund. It is designed to track the price of oil, on a percentage basis, not point for point, but close.
It has been as high as $119 per share and as low as $24. It is currently within a few dollars of its low. You should expect close to, not exactly, but close to a point for point move on a percentage basis as the price of oil changes.
Over the next year a realistic gain expectation is about 80% to 100%. On the three to five year horizon, the sky is the limit.
Now here’s a play that will give you almost a two for one return on any increase in oil.
DXO- this is an exchange-traded note, not a fund, offered by Deutsche Bank. It is designed to give you twice the percentage return of oil. Keep in mind, if you have an investment that gives you twice on the upside, it will also take twice on the downside. Nothing is free!
Its 52-week range is around $1.75 to $29. It is only a few cents above its low. This is a potential 150% to 200% gain this year or early next.
Very rarely have I seen an opportunity as blatant as this one. If we had a choice to not use oil I might be a little more subdued, but we don’t. Add to this equation the fact that we have put ourselves in a position where we have no choice but to import oil for a very long time and you have a win-win scenario for this play.
Add the increasing demand by the developing world, which will only accelerate in the years to come, and you have a tiger by the tail. The only question is how long you will give it to work.
As with any strategy time is the real issue. What if this doesn’t begin to work until late this year, or early next? So what. Give this time to work and you have as close to a guaranteed short term double as I have ever seen.
Oil is only one of many plays that will make millions over the next 18 to 36 months. This is the best buying opportunity since the market collapse of the late 70’s.
Turn off the TV’s negative talking heads and start looking at the positive of this mess. All it will take is a little patience to make a fortune.
Source: $75 Oil This Year and it Can Put a Lot of Money in Your Pocket
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