Global markets are soaring today on renewed bailout efforts. But Irwin Greenstein says its probably not a good idea to jump back in to these emerging markets just yet. As always, China will be the bellwether for a sustainable recovery. And commodity prices will remain crucial for resource-rich nations.

“I woke up this morning and everything was green – not the trees but the gains on my emerging market portfolio.”

Up, up, up, with the exception of the iShares MSCI Turkey Invest Mkt Index (NYSE:TUR), which was down 5.67%.

Some of the highlights include the HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) up 12.82%. The RTSI INDEX (RTS.RS) jumped 18.2% after Putin approved nearly $10 billion in bailout loans – most of them going to his billionaire pals who made extremely bad bets on the markets.

The JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX (^JKSE) increased 5.41%. The TSEC weighted index (^TWII) was up 6.21%. And the IBOVESPA SAO PAULO (^BVSP) market gained 5.94% after taking a tremendous beating.

Does this mean it’s time to get back into emerging markets?

Probably not.

But it does indicate some rationalization between the skyrocketing prices during the so-called commodities supercycle and the new everyday reality of emerging nations facing a raw reality head-on.

Maybe you can call it sort of a fiscal post-pubescent coming of age, where enormous subsidies and reserves from natural resources will give away to the promise of responsible stewardship by business and government.

Of course, no one really enjoys being responsible for very long, and the whole stupendous spectacle will cycle up all over again.

That said, we should really be looking to China as the bellwether for a sustained emerging market rally. The country is now dealing with the backlash to a global credit crunch, post-Olympic slump and credit and currency problems.

Inevitably, China will pull itself up by the bootstraps and continue the march toward its own economic Manifest Destiny.

Naturally, an upswing in oil, natural gas and metals will also help determine an emerging-market recovery.

In the meantime, though, we have to follow the credit, because that’s what these countries need to normalize their economic progress.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will make available as much as $100 billion to countries battered by the financial crisis.

During the past few years, emerging markets have avoided the IMF because of restrictions that are imposed with the loans. These often include budget cuts and interest-rate increases. When these countries get in bed with the IMF, fiscal responsibility is the first order of business.

Countries such as Brazil, Mexico and countries of the former Soviet Union would be likely candidates for IMF infusions.

In the end, don’t get your hopes up high for any emerging market bubbles in the near term. On the other hand, if you’re looking for a return to long-term fiscal responsibility (and the inevitable bubble) keep on your eye on these up-and-comers.