Double and Triple-Profit Ideas For 2009
Dec 19th, 2008 | By Andy Carpenter | Category: Financial NewsQuote of the week: I stopped believing in Santa Claus when I was six. Mother took me to see him in a department store and he asked for my autograph. – Shirley Temple
Here are eight stocking stuffers to unwrap.
1) The conversation between Libertarians and the rest of us (who aren’t on some nutty fringe) would go a lot smoother if we would all agree that laws and regulations do not prevent bad behavior.
Rather, they are merely guideposts to measure the quality of deviance in a way that allows the US’s local, state and federal judiciary to hand out retribution.
If you need further proof of this, I offer you two words – Bernard Madoff.
In an under-regulated world, Ponzi schemes might not be illegal. In fact, you can assume that is a near certainty, judging by the number of famous institutions and wealthy people that poured billions into Madoff’s fund, even as they suspected he was cooking the books.
The allure of that steady 9% return was just too strong… flies to the dung heap.
You have to wonder how many of Madoff’s investors will not only lose millions on the madman’s fund, then double those loses when the IRS goes all militia on their wacky offshore tax schemes. The latter is one of 2008’s most under-reported financial stories… as it will likely be in 2009.
2) Poor and middle-class people dream of the big investment score – the lottery… wealthy people, as the Madoff affair demonstrates, get all dewy eyed over 9%.
The reason is simple. Nine percent of $10 million is $900,000. That’s enough to survive on, even if it’s your only income. On the other hand, try living on 9% of $200,000 or 9% of $100,000…
Actually, if you don’t have health insurance and you live in a tent, you can probably stretch $18,000 out through a year, as long as you don’t pay the capital gains tax on it.
3) Now that the conservatives on the Supreme Court have opened the door for a new round of huge lawsuits against the Altria Group, you have to wonder what would prevent the President-elect, who can choke down some Marlboros, from joining a class-action suit.4) Here’s a play for all those union-hating people who believed, without verifying, all the recent bunk about how the United Auto Workers union is killing US automakers.
There is LUV in the air for you. Southwest Airlines trades around $7.50 today. Many of its employees, 7,200 ground-crew workers, haven’t had a raise since 2005. Ten-month long negotiations with these workers broke down in October.
LUV is profitable, its debt is manageable, and its earnings and revenues are slated to increase by about 10%. Additionally, though I hate the quarterly reporting game, LUV seems historically adept at producing earnings surprises on a regular basis.
Still, the best part of this play is it’s so Reaganesque… Southwest seems to hate its employees.
Nevertheless, LUV looks like one of 2009’s share-price doublers.
5) Here’s a sweet play that should tap into the infrastructure mania that’s about to sweep the world.
Find someone to give you good, long odds on an under/over bet that you won’t be reading at least 199 “First Great Obama Stock” promotions in the coming six months. Take the over.
Hell, I got an “Obama stock” via fax the other day – some 22-cent West Virginia coal play. Damn thing went up 10 cents the next day, too.
6) If you want to play the coming Obama/worldwide economic-stimulus infrastructure bubble, you’re going to have to get in soon.
In China, that would mean jumping on low prices General Steel Holding (NYSE:GSI). I’ve known the GSI guys for five years now – even before they were public.
Actually, I took a bunch of investors over to Beijing in 2004 and introduced them to the company just two hours before it went public.
Great company… great CEO… great management (much of its top management and board are from what I affectionately refer to as Beijing’s born-again Christian mafia).
Its earnings are slated to jump out of the roof next year. At around $4, GSI is a wicked steal.
GSI is one of 2009’s potential share-price triplers.
7) If you want to stay closer to home and still play the great-infrastructure-bubble-of-2009, then take a good look at Pasadena, California-based Jacobs Engineering (NYSE:JEC). But, do it fast, because it is destined to be a newsletter darling next year.
Multifaceted, JEC provides technical, professional, and construction services to industrial, commercial, and governmental customers worldwide.
It designs and engineers manufacturing plants that make chemicals and polymers, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, oil and gas refining, food and consumer products, and basic resources industries
It also designs and engineers infrastructure projects such as highways, roads, bridges, and other transportation systems, as well as water and wastewater treatment plants, water resources facilities.
Most analysts agree that JEC should see a nice jump in earning next year. It has a tiny amount of debt, which make its 20.5% return on equity that much more impressive.
JEC has the very real potential to be one of 2009’s safest share-price doublers.
Do your own homework on Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW), Vodafone (VOD), Cosco Singapore (CSCMY)… each could have a smoking hot 2009.
That’ll do it for this week. I’ve been traveling so, I need get home to Boston and get some of that New England Christmas spirit going.
Of course, one of the season’s happiest symptoms is the fact that so many of us return to a naïve child-like state that peace on earth – even for a few weeks – seems like a noble goal.
Merry Christmas (for those among you that find such a salutation applicable).
Source: Double- and Triple-Profit Ideas For 2009
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