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Early Indicators: The Bear Stearns Effect

Sep 11th, 2008 | By Contrarian Profits | Category: Featured, Financial News

Lehman Brothers is doomed opines Bloomberg’s Michael Lewis this morning. Ironically, Lewis says Lehman’s (NYSE:LEH) fate is sealed because, following the government’s bailout of rival Bear Stearns, those who do business with Lehman don’t care too much if it stands or falls. The belief is the government will step in to pick up the pieces should Lehman fall apart.

The Bear Stearns bailout was supposed to prevent the crisis from rippling through Wall Street. Obviously it hasn’t done that. It’s merely thrown the crisis into slow motion and prolonged the agony.

Addison Wiggan and Ian Mathias in The 5 Min. Forecast have a different view: The government is not willing to bailout another bank…

Long story short, Lehman is as close to going out of business as ever. The firm is still gripped by credit- and mortgage-related losses. Its merger with a government-owned bank in Korea is now rumored to have fallen through. S&P has threatened to cut ratings, again. And the market is terrified that the U.S. government is not willing (or even able) to bail out ANOTHER “too big to fail” financial.

 

Selling hits Lehman’s stock.

Lehman is “ripe for a hostile takeover,” says Jennifer Yousfi in Money Morning. But the clock is ticking. According to Jennifer, “As the list of potential saviors continues to dwindle, so does investor confidence in Lehman Brothers.”

US futures are pointing down. “Stocks head squarely toward sharp losses as financial  worries and slowdown jitters call the tune.  Data on trade, jobless claims and import prices on deck. 

–  There’s always a way to profit. Martin Hutchinson in Money Morning says as Treasury bonds suffer from higher government borrowing and inflation the Rydex Juno Fund (MUTF:RYJCX) should see major gains. Ian Davis in DailyWealth says it’s difficult to see how investors can lose on fat-dividend paying Taiwanese stocks.

The dollar continues to rally. It hit a one-year high against the euro and a basket of currencies.

Charles Delvalle in Investor’s Daily Edge says investors should factor in 6 to 12 months of dollar strength after the buck broke above its eight-year resistance line.

– The rising dollar is having having a negative effect on crude oil prices. Prices are down to just under $102 a barrel.

Chris Mayer, however, remains bullish on oil long-term future for two fundamental reasons.

Gold prices regained some strength. Reuters reports that “investors who propelled gold to a lifetime high of $1,030,80 in March on inflation fears and a struggling dollar are ditching their bullion holdings as the US currency stages a dramatic rebound.”
Lee Lowell at The Smart Profits Repor, however, gold is oversold. He also says the dollar rally is mainly due to sentiment.


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By Contrarian Profits

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