European Recession, Russia in Trouble, China’s Housing Market, Oil Perspective, Warren Buffett and More!
Sep 13th, 2008 | By Ian Mathias | Category: Politics & EconomicsForget Fannie and Freddie… The 5 packs the passport for a global economic roundup… Which three major euro economies will fall into recession by 2009… Russia desperate to buoy stock market… suggests pumping SWF dollars to save investors…China’s housing market takes a frightful turn… will the red nation go the way of I.O.U.S.A.?… Mexican billionaire makes contrarian bet on legendary U.S. organization… Byron King with an important perspective on oil prices, and oil headlines…
How about a break from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac today? We, and the rest of the world, have said enough already this week. And we promise there’ll be much more to say in the future.
So let’s start with a look abroad. We must say… the view isn’t so pretty.
Germany, Spain and Britain will all fall into recession this year, says the latest from the European Commission, the economic data arm of the EU. We brought you the commission’s gloomy eurozone growth forecast yesterday. Today, the details are looking even more dramatic:
According to EU statistics, Germany experienced two consecutive quarters of economic contraction between April and September, a technical recession. Outside the EU’s commission, we see similar indicators. For example, the Ifo Institute announced today that German consumer sentiment has fallen to a five-year low.
Similarly, the EU forecasts Spain and Britain will experience at least 0.1% “negative growth” in the last two quarters of this year. They might be right… in national measurements of GDP, Spain, Britain, and France all missed growth estimates in the second quarter.
The Russian stock market is looking so desperate the government is considering using sovereign wealth fund money to prop up investors. Russia’s energy intense market has gotten slammed since oil’s big summer pullback. Coupled with a globally unpopular war in Georgia, a quick look at the RTS Index says it all… money is racing for the exits in Mother Russia.

The RTS Index fell 7% on Tuesday, as commodities retreated, global markets declined and credit conditions in Russia worsened. “President” Medvedev responded by pumping $10 billion in the market to improve liquidity, the biggest such cash injection in over a year. Russian investors returned that favor by selling the market down another 5% yesterday.
So this morning, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said he is mulling “a proposal to place pension fund money and national wealth fund money on the domestic market.”
Using SWF profits to prop up domestic equities? It’s a brave new world.
China is showing signs of an ailing housing market. Chinese property prices are officially growing only 1% faster than last year’s pace — reason enough for the growth-obsessed nation to worry. We snagged a chart of the Chinese property price index over the past few years. This might be an unfair comparison, but we can’t help but look at this chart and think of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index here in the U.S.:

So Chinese home price growth is plummeting this year as quickly as it skyrocketed last year. This morning’s New York Times also causes concern over the health of China’s housing market. According to the rag, sales volume is falling “precipitously” in many regions, and prices are yet to fully react.
They can fix they economy for sure, they paid off their deficit of $4 trillion in 2006, they don't have the debt to worry themselves like the US does. I know a lot of people living and working in Russia, the news is not as bad as you hear it.