Fed Rate Cut Dilemma
Jun 3rd, 2008 | By Marc | Category: Featured, Financial NewsAs recession fears deepened in the US in March, calls for a more aggressive Fed rate cut policy came from all angles (though Wall Street could be heard above most).
Now, as oil prices break though ceilings faster than they can be rebuilt and the US inflation rate rises, the Fed’s frenzied rate cuts are coming under closer scrutiny.
“Investors who are looking to the Fed for guidance are driving with their rearview mirrors,” says Keith Fitz Gerald in Money Morning.
“The Fed’s data is almost always delayed more than the markets, which means that the smart money has most decidedly and almost certainly priced in the Fed’s ‘news’ months ago … The Fed isn’t running the show and never has, despite what the media and most people seem to think.”
But if we can’t rely on Bernanke & Co to navigate us safely through increasingly murky financial waters, what can we do?
First, when the markets get sideways and uncertain, it’s important to realize that having the proper portfolio structure will save the day – regardless of who’s at the helm (big money) and who might think he’s at the helm (Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke),
And by “structure,” we don’t mean individual stocks or allocation. Instead, what you need is an assemblage of stocks concentrated on the trends of the time, such as energy and inflation, for example.
Traditional diversification, while better than nothing, is just a proxy for having no clue about how to select smart investments. It’s like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. It might look pretty, but it doesn’t work when the entire market goes down at once, as so many investors found out between 2000 and 2002 and again recently.
Structure, on the other hand, is a deliberate attempt to manage risk. That’s why famous investors like Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, BRK.B) Chairman Warren Buffett, George Soros, John Templeton and Jim Rogers concentrate their risks, rather than just spread their money around willy-nilly.
Not only do certain sectors bounce faster but they also fall less. And those same sectors can kick off huge income as they go, which means that investors who “buy” into this argument are ahead of the game far sooner than those who don’t.
Second, pay particular attention to unstoppable global trends. Then place money squarely in front of where they meet. This is not rocket science. For instance, the world’s electrical systems are antiquated or nonexistent, which means they need to be updated and simply built in the first place to meet demand. Which is why there’s an estimated $16 trillion behind the trend.
Other “unstoppable trends” include the emergence of China, inflation, energy, and even war, which, in a sad testimony to our times, is a growth industry.
Third, think like a plumber. A little water in the wrong part of your house can do a lot of damage, so it’s important not to let it get out of control in the first place. We’re not referring to micromanaging a longer-term portfolio here, but unless you’re a day trader or even a swing trader, there’s no reason to be constantly tweaking your portfolio in search of smaller profits when it’s the bigger picture that matters.
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