FOMC Statement Highlights The Week … Will The Fed Be Left With One Bullet?
Dec 15th, 2008 | By Christian Hill | Category: Financial NewsWell we have made it to the end of another year, and this one has been quite a ride. This is the last full trading week of the year, so barring a huge rally, the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P will all end the year with losses north of 30 percent.
With that being said, the calendar this week is full of some important reports that could set the tone for the early part of next year.
On Tuesday, the Building Permits report for November is released, and is anticipated to show only a slight decline of around 8k units. I am not sure if this is simply due to the seasonal slowdown of building in northern climates, or if perhaps builders have finally found an equilibrium point with the market, but I view it as a positive sign if the number holds close to expectations.
The same can be said about the November Housing Starts report that comes out at the same time. A decline is expected, but again, it could just be do to seasonal issues (you can’t build in northern climates when the ground is frozen) rather than a worsening housing sector.
The big reports of the week are the November CPI and Core CPI figures. Much like last week’s PPI and Core PPI reports, the Core CPI figure is expected to show a slight increase while the CPI figure will likely show a continued drop. Energy costs (oil) continue to drop, and this will be reflected in the CPI figure.
The Philly Fed report comes out Thursday morning, and it looks like reality has set in again. As I reported last month, expectations for the November report were for a rather large improvement versus October. Well not only did that not come true, but the report was actually worse than October. This month, expectations are for a slight decline.
The attention grabber this week is the FOMC Policy Statement on Tuesday. As it stands, expectations are for a huge rate cut. Currently the Fed Funds rate is 1.00%, and the probability chart shows a 65 percent chance of a cut down to 0.25%. This is especially shocking for two reasons. One is the shear size of the cut, which would be three-quarters of a percent. The second aspect is that if the cut is down to 0.25%, it leaves only one more bullet left in the gun for the Fed to cut rates.
Source: FOMC Statement Highlights The Week … Will The Fed Be Left With One Bullet?
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