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Forget Market-Timing, I’ve Got a Better Plan

Aug 5th, 2008 | By David Newman | Category: Stock Market Investing

The big debate on “The Street,” (besides whether we’re really in a bear market or not) is will the next move be bullish or bearish? And my answer is “Yes, the next move will be bullish and bearish.” (I know what you’re thinking: “Great, David…that’s a lot of help!”)

Before you dismiss my ideas, let me explain. If you look at the major indices over the last few days, you’ll notice the markets rise and fall like the tide, even during this bear market. But I’ll get to that in just a minute. First let me give you a visual.

I’m currently winging my way from my home in Florida to Scottsdale and Sedona, Arizona. I’m going on a much-needed vacation with my family to The Grand Canyon. We’re off to a rocky start so far - our flight was delayed and we already lost two days off our trip.

We were delayed leaving West Palm Beach, which means we’re going to miss our connection in Atlanta. “Weather delays” they tell us. By the way, “they” are AirTran (AAI) (and that’s a company I plan on shorting as soon as possible, but that’s another story for a future article) and AirTran couldn’t get us out of Atlanta until late yesterday.

I’ll be flying as this story runs later today, so my apologies - I’m working with the most recent data I have available - starting with last week.

Up, Down, Sideways - Does It Really Matter?

Last week, we had two up days and three down days. The Dow was down 239 points on Monday, up 266 points on Tuesday, up 186 on Wednesday, down 204 on Thursday and down 42 on Friday.

Then yesterday, as I sat in the airport, the Dow dropped 42 points. Today, my editor tells me the Dow is already up 110 points.

Not that it matters. Up, down, up down - bullish or bearish - honestly, I couldn’t care less. I’ve discovered a way to make money either way.

Last week, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 44.37 points, or 0.4%, to close at 11,326.32. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index gained 2.55 points, or 0.2%, to close at 1,260.31 The Nasdaq composite index rose 0.43 point, or 0.02%, to close at 2,310.96.

We sit here as investors and we try to pick tops and bottoms in the markets. Yes, I know everybody tells you - “you can’t time the markets.” Yet we all want to, don’t we?

We look at charts…we analyze trends…we listen closely to the talking-heads on CNBC to see if they have the answers. We dig deep inside our brains to discover the trend behind the trend…we look to see if anything is hiding back there that could help us predict the future.

In markets like these you look for new ideas, creative ways to win. And then suddenly…

Voilà - eureka - there it is! And it’s been right there in front of you the whole time.

Two Choices: Sit and Wait, or Act and Profit

As I said in Thursday’s A-Letter, you can run and hide and go to all cash.

You can accept the long slow drain of your net worth as inflation and the dollar gang up on you. Sit tight, cross your fingers…feel vindicated on a bullish day and defeated on the bearish ones.

Or you can take advantage of extraordinary opportunities for high income now, whether the market moves up 250 points or down 250 points.

There are certain structured vehicles that will pay far more than even the best dividend paying stocks. In fact, you can collect 20% on one of the best solar companies with 40% down side “insurance.” Or you can secure a 14% “guarantee cash dividend” on a huge U.S. blue-chip like Target Corp (TGT) - one of the few retailers that has the best position to grab the middle of the market and is gearing up for the back-to-school sales.

You don’t get any of the upside. But we’re talking about investing in a market that can’t seem to find its way… On many of these, the stock has to fall 20% or even 40% before you risk loss. But you collect 10%, 15%, or 20% in checks all the while, as the market tries to figure itself out.

DAVID NEWMAN, Market Analyst

EDITOR’S NOTE: Learn how you can secure your own “guaranteed cash dividends” with David’s new service Accelerated Income. Today is the LAST DAY you can sign up for his service absolutely FREE. Get the details here.

Source: Forget Market-Timing, I’ve Got a Better Plan


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By David Newman

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David Newman, Market Analyst, is a contributing author to the Sovereign Society's Offshore A-letter.

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