Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Forget Stocks and Go Golfing

Mar 10th, 2008 | By Eric Roseman | Category: Stock Market Investing

Forget the market. Recently, the best strategy is to simply stay away from stocks altogether and head to the golf course or the movies.

The news just keeps getting worse every day. Investors are facing a nonstop barrage of bearish announcements. With the financials bleeding again, the market won’t make any headway.

Stocks have gone down every month since October and sit 18% off their best levels last October. This is now officially the worst sell-off since 2002. Worse, euro-based investors are sitting on a 13% loss over the last three months alone based on the MSCI World Index, in euro terms.

The list of acronyms tied to busted or stressed credits keeps getting worse. Banks, insurance companies, private equity funds and hedge funds are all in the same boat.

Over the last few days, reports of hemorrhaging hedge funds are making matters worse. That includes bad news from Carlyle Group, a major private equity fund, and several hedge funds in Europe. One hedge fund in the United States, Focus, went bust betting on Swiss mid-cap stocks. Plus, Jefferson County in Alabama became the latest casualty hit by derivatives yesterday.

Buying stocks on any market whether local or foreign is a losing proposition right now since market breadth worldwide is still deteriorating. Why buy stocks now if they’ll get cheaper next week or next month?

In New York last Thursday, the number of stocks hitting 52-week lows outnumbered the 52-week highs by a 10-to-1 margin. I don’t care how good of a stock-picker you are, it’s almost impossible to make money in this stock market.

And to make your day even brighter, the latest employment figures are dismal, sending the market back into the basement for another lousy day of trading.

Until the deflation in U.S. residential real estate stops, the market will have a very difficult time adjusting to find a bottom. U.S. consumers are finally caving in with mortgage values worth more than their underlying home values, food and energy prices soaring and job losses mounting. The big question now is whether this will be a soft or deep recession? I’ve got to think it’ll be a bad one because housing deflation is the worst nightmare facing consumption and the broader economy.

Stick to defensive large-cap dividend-paying stocks, high quality Treasury and corporate debt, gold, other commodities and foreign currencies. Also, continue to hedge with reverse-index products. And don’t forget to hold cash if you don’t use hedging or other alternative investments to protect your stock portfolio.

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director

P.S. My Commodity Trend Alert (CTA) subscribers are staying long and strong on commodities through this massacre for stocks. Right now, my CTA portfolio is long on live stock, agricultural commodities, and precious metal plays that just hit triple-digits in the last week. Click here to read my special report to read more about my long-term trends I see coming in commodities.


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Eric RosemanEric serves as an editor and Investment Director for The Sovereign Society's Commodity Trend Alert. Eric's talents include blending a dozen or more alternative investment funds to produce consistent returns to traditional asset classes and making commodity based recommendations with huge upside and limited downside.

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  1. [...] whatface wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptForget the market. Recently, the best strategy is to simply stay away from stocks altogether and head to the golf course or the movies. (more…) Related Articles. A Fed Failure? Not Your Father’s Recession. [...]

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