“No Independence Day for gas prices,” says Chigago’s The Southern Star, which is predicting that half a million less people will leave the city over the holiday weekend thanks to high gas prices.

The AAA annual Fourth of July travel forecast says different, according to the The Washington Times. It says record gas prices and soaring airfares will deter few Americans from traveling over the holiday weekend.

DailyWealth editor Steve Sjuggerud says be skeptical about anyone who claims to know where the price of oil or gas is going. But considering that oil has shot up tenfold in the last ten years and gas has only risen fourfold, Steve is surprised that we’re not already seeing higher gas prices.

“First, nobody knows where the price of oil or gas is headed.” You should be extremely skeptical of anyone who says otherwise. “But here’s what I do know…” Then I shared with him some simple math:

To give you some perspective, I put together this chart:

You think gas is expensive now? Consider this:

The chart shows the price of a barrel of oil on the left scale, versus the price of a gallon of unleaded gas on the right scale.

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Adjusted for inflation, the price of unleaded gas had been relatively stable – around $2 a gallon – for nearly two decades. The price of oil adjusted for inflation had been somewhat stable as well… around $30 a barrel since 1986.

Then, boom! The price of oil shot higher. Yes, the price of gas has doubled from $2 to $4. But that’s nothing compared to oil’s massive moonshot.

When you realize that the biggest part of the price of gas is the price of oil… then you can easily see how the price of gas can go higher from here.

Here’s where your gas money goes…

Refiners, distributors, convenience stores, you name it, they’ve been squeezed trying to get you gas cheaply. {Exxon (NYSE: XOM) is actually getting out of the service station business!}

The high price of oil is what’s done us in. Quite frankly, knowing what we know about the price of oil, I’m surprised we’re not paying even more for gas now.

“When will we get relief from the high gas prices?” I wish I could be more optimistic with my friend the car dealer, and with you. But I have to be honest…

When I size up the two pictures above, my simple answer to you is “not soon.”
Source: The Real Numbers Behind High Gas Prices