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Gold, Silver Remain Above Support Levels

May 5th, 2008 | By Doug Casey | Category: Gold Market

Except for a sharp dip that came just after New York opened and was quickly erased, gold stayed within a tight $7 range from the far East straight through to the end of trading, finishing near the high end at $856.70, up $4.30. For the week, gold shed 3.2%.

Platinum bottomed at $1840 then moved upward in two sharp steps on the Nymex, ending at its intraday high of $1900/oz., up $35. For the week, platinum was down 2.9%.

Silver pushed to a high point of $16.50 at the noon hour, but eased in the afternoon hours to close at $16.37, up 22 cents. For the week, silver lost 2.8%.
(Click here for charts)

Though it was a day of rather modest gains, anything was better than the pounding the precious metals absorbed on Thursday. That gold quickly recovered from a dip under $850, and that silver held comfortably over $16 for the whole day, is certainly, while not confirmatory that the metals have bottomed, encouraging that that might be the case.

In addition, gold moved against a rising dollar, although it was supported by sharply higher crude prices.

The Hightower Report wrote of the ongoing tension in the market thusly: “While it might take a little longer to transition the bull camp in the gold market back to a classic inflation posture, from the recent flight to quality argument, it is difficult to suggest that a recovery in the US economy will be a long term bearish development for the gold market.

Certainly a host of buyers over the last year have banked on a persistent decline in the Dollar and in turn piled into gold. Certainly seeing fears of a historic financial debacle in the US added to the bull camp and therefore seeing the threat of a debacle in the US decline is naturally cause for a wave of long liquidation in gold.

However, as was seen in the early action Friday morning, gold can rise in the face of residual Dollar strength and gold can also re-embrace the ongoing potentially historic inflationary threat that could unfold in the event that the US economy gets back on track. In short, the gold market appears to be facing a tug of war between an exodus of flight to quality longs and a possible influx of fresh buyers off a rekindling of classical inflation prospects.”

James Moore, of TheBullionDesk.com remains cautious, writing that, “We still see gold remaining under pressure in the short term, with a substantial break below $850 potentially triggering a move back to technical support located around $836.75.”

Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report wrote that there’s “little doubt that recession is now the situation in both the U.S. and Canada,” and consequently “That reality has broken the short-term euphoria that had been chasing returns in real assets, from oil to gold to agri-food commodities … With a recession mentality now in place, commodities are being sold …”


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By Doug Casey

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Doug CaseyDoug Casey is a contrarian investor, sought-after public speaker and author of several books. His work "Crisis Investing" held the position of # 1 bestseller on the New York Times list for 26 consecutive weeks. Doug's unusual views on the economy - and just about everything else - have gained a huge following in the investment community, and it certainly helps that his stock recommendations of undervalued junior exploration companies have made his subscribers millions. Now in its 27th year, Doug's monthly newsletter, the International Speculator, is one of the most established and esteemed publications on gold, silver and other natural resource investments. Together with the Casey Energy Speculator, it covers a broad range of carefully selected stocks with the very real potential of double- and triple-digit returns within 12 to 24 months.

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