Thursday, November 20th, 2008

Great Bargains in Ignored Biotech

Aug 7th, 2008 | By Contrarian Profits | Category: Featured, Financial News

There has been a lot of strong recommendations around biotech lately on Contrarian Profits.

Phase 1 Investor editor Rob Fannon recently wrote that biotech was one of the few market sectors to show positive returns as  many other stocks were getting hammered. He sees great values in the sector.

There’s a good reason for this strength. A struggling economy won’t hurt biotech and medical as much as, say, an automaker, retailer, or restaurant chain… And biotech is one of the few industries showing solid sales growth.

A big holding in the S&P Biotech ETF, Gilead Sciences, just reported a 22% increase in quarterly sales growth. A slew of big biotech players report earnings next week, and I expect more great numbers.

Several ETFs give you broad exposure to biotech. Just enter “biotech” in the search box on www.etfconnect.com for a full list of funds. (A warning on the HOLDRs Biotech ETF – I’d avoid it… It’s ridiculously weighted toward just four high-profile companies.)

The really huge gains in biotech will be made with the best individual companies. Pick the right one and you could easily multiply your money by four or five times.

Today, Steve Sjuggerud of Daily Wealth calls biotech, the first “screaming buy” of 2008.

I asked Rob about the Genentech buyout offer from Roche – the one that I called the “catalyst” for the sector back in July.

Rob said the Genentech bid “is a bad move for Roche… but it’s terrific for the industry, for a couple reasons.”

• First, big, profitable biotech companies like Biogen (BIIB), Gilead (GILD), Genzyme (GENZ), or Celgene (CELG) are perceived as safer ways to play biotech. Like Genentech, these companies already have drugs on the market that command premium pricing and offer multiple years of remaining patent protection. They could be takeover candidates as well.

• Second, once Genentech is acquired, $40 billion of money dedicated to biotech will need to find a new home. Investors will search for new spots to park this cash… We’re seeing it already. Sector valuations are already on the rise.

According to Rob, the whole sector “is prone to swift surges of joy.” An easy and diversified way to own biotech is through the SPDR biotech ETF (XBI). It holds mostly mid- and large-cap companies.

But Rob says the real money will be made in small-cap biotechs – like the ones he often features in his newsletter. He told his readers, “I’m betting the entire small-cap space could jump as high as 25% in the coming months. And that could be just the beginning…”

I trust Rob, who’s finally bullish about biotech. Everything is lined up, as far as our “cheap, hated, uptrend” mantra goes. And the sector has just begun to rise. You haven’t missed a thing.

In short, if you haven’t bought biotech yet, buy it now! It’s the first “screaming buy” of 2008.

Likewise, Jim Nelson in the Penny Sleuth sees great profit opportunities for biotech right now.

You see, investors have been too busy buying up investment banks and mortgage fiascos. Now that the dust is starting to settle (even though we expect that to take quite a while), more and more interest is being paid to technologies and biotechs. That hasn’t happened on any large scale since the tech bubble burst.

A few weeks ago, Big Pharma went head first into this recent breakout, when Switzerland-based Roche Holdings offered to buy up the other 44% of Genetech Inc. (NYSE:DNA) that it didn’t own. The news of this possible deal sent shares flying 15% overnight.

Just a few days ago, Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) offered to buy ImClone Systems (NASDAQ:IMCL) — a small $5 billion biotech — for $60 per share. While that one was instantly rejected it did send ImClone shares flying, giving investors a nice, one-day 40% gain.

These stories are starting to roll in now.


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