Monday, November 23rd, 2009

Green is In, But Why?

May 30th, 2008 | By Charles Delvalle | Category: Politics & Economics

There’s a small revolution going on…You see it on TV when the commercials come on. You see it on the front page of your local newspaper. You see it everywhere. New corporations are being formed because of this revolution. And money is flooding into this sector undeterred.

If you haven’t figured it out, I’m talking about green investing. And as gas prices rocket higher and higher, green technology will become even more widespread.

In the past two weeks, I have written about the subject. I’ve discussed that for the most part, the economics of becoming green don’t make sense. But thanks to higher gas prices, green energy is becoming more and more commonplace.

For example, the Financial Times estimates that by 2030, plug-in cars will make up 50% of all cars sold. According to the World Watch Institute, starting in 2010, China will spend over $236 billion each year on green investments.

That’s huge. But that’s not all…

In a recent Harper’s Magazine article, it was pointed out that to have a bubble you need three things:

  1. Government incentives or deregulation
  2. An irrational belief that drives the masses to buy
  3. A sector which can spawn new ways to make money nearly instantly

Now think about it. The Internet bubble saw all three things.

The government decided not to collect taxes from online purchases. They also helped speed up adoption of broadband and granted various tax credits to companies that would deal in technology (Silicon Valley anyone?). So obviously, the government helped.

Second, most people believed the Internet was the future. They thought that it would be so huge that life itself would depend on it (they weren’t wrong, just early). Remember the Y2K bug scare? That was part of America’s obsession with technology.

To make matters worse, everyone thought that buying an Internet stock was a sure bet. Companies were spawning every day and they all thought they had a great idea. But the problem was that they were only ideas. I saw my best friend’s father make over $140,000 – and then lose almost all of it as the bubble burst.

Now let’s look at the real estate bubble.

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Under Greenspan, financial regulation was a joke. He believed in a free market and so thought that any government regulation would result in more harm than good. Add in the super-low interest rates we had and you’ll see that banks had the green light to grow undeterred.

Mix all of this in with the belief most people had that real estate never goes down, and you’ve got yet another bubble recipe brewing. Heck, people who had never bought real estate were buying and flipping houses and speculative vacant lots in a matter of months.

Finally, when mortgage demand started drying up, banks started issuing subprime, interest only, and no-doc loans. Then they would pull mortgages off their balance sheet, wrap them up in a nifty little investment vehicle, and sell them to hedge funds, banks, and investors looking for the supposedly safer mortgage backed returns. These banks were essentially creating these investment vehicles out of thin air.

As you can see, the real estate market also fits the profile of a bubble.

So how about the green market?

Well, the government recently incentivized production of ethanol, biofuel, and solar technology. If a Democrat gets into office, these incentives should grow. Congress even pushed up the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) guidelines for the first time since 1975. And the idea of carbon credits is beginning to gain traction in Congress.

So the government is helping fuel the creation of cleaner energy. Step one is complete.

What about step two?

If I talk to any of my friends and tell them I love the things oil does to the earth, they’ll slap me (yes, I know oil is bad for the earth). If I told them that I didn’t recycle, they’d yell at me (yes, I recycle). My friends are already convinced that the green movement is the way to go.

If you type in the word ‘green’ in Google, you’ll see thousands of new websites that all talk about how great it is to be green.

Look at corporate trends, and you see more commercials with companies talking about going green. Wal-Mart, IBM, Intel, Google, and even ExxonMobil is getting into the act. The idea of going green is spreading like wildfire. And it will only increase as gas prices move higher.

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By Charles Delvalle

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About the Author

Charles DelvalleCharles Delvalle is a self-taught market-timing professional and value analyst who's followed and invested in the market for the past ten years. He uses a unique combination of technical and fundamental research to pinpoint rapid profit opportunities with stocks and options. Charles is also a staunch contrarian and takes pride in finding undervalued sectors and discovering undervalued, cash-rich companies. He frequently mocks government stupidities and points out the "inaccuracies (or lies, take your pick) that government reporting frequently dispels as "truth".

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  1. Interesting post. I think its difficult to equate green to internet and housing yet… First I don’t even think housing and the internet have much in the way of similarity to make a triumverate. There were true game changing businesses created, and continue to be created to this day, during the internet revolution. I think that its much harder to say that the housing run up exposed new housing opportunities or concepts that didn’t exist before (even the “new” financial instruments used to fuel the housing b8bble weren’t new – they had been around since the 80’s.)

    The housing bubble was primarily driven by two factors – a market that somehow found a way, in its deconstruction by financial firms, to avoid moral hazard at every step of the way (so money was invested without regard for return because that was someone elses problem) – and then really set in motion by government interest rate policy designed to stimulate housing prices as a mechanism for propping up consumer spending. The internet mania had very little gov’t help (aside from Darpa funding its initial technical invention…) – it came mostly out of investor ignorance (from pros and retail alike) that couldn’t tell between good game changing businesses that were capturing marketshare by changing it permanently – e.g., ebay – and me-too dreck that had no right to be considered similar – e.g., pets.com.

    I am not certain the green market follows either path. Certainly the gov’t has its hand in green business on the demand side – e.g., tax subsidies make solar somewhat reasonable if you don’t plan to move for 7 years – but competing technologies – like oil – have tremendous subsidies and create large externalities that are currently borne by the commons and ignored by government as a de facto subsidy (e.g., pollution mitigation, military costs associated with oil access foreign policy, global warming impacts) -all of which combine to make them look economically attractive relative to greener alternatives (which don’t have the same kinds of externalities so remain expensive for the time being)…

    So I suppose that aspect of the green bubble could be like the housing market in so much that the gov’t is involved from a policy standpoint – but the subsidies that we talk about mostly have been around forever, its only now that gov’t. has show its incompetence in managing traditional energy supplies, resulting in price spikes, that renewables have even been looked at seriously.

    Also, while much of what happened on the internet either created new markets where they didn’t exist – or took old line businesses to school (e.g., craigslist killing the classifieds – and thereby the newspapers) – many green investments can’t do either because they are commodities. Lucky for the green industry there is just burgeoning demand – so much that there is likely a simultaneous bubbles on both sides of the energy equation going on…

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