The US economy is still more than like to fall into recession, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has told British newspaper the Financial Times.

The former chairman of the Federal Reserve said: “I still believe there is a greater than 50 per cent probability of recession.” But, he said, “that probability has receded a little and I think the probability of a severe recession has come down markedly”.

His comments, in an interview with the FT, come as a counter to the increasing optimism in some quarters. In the past six weeks, most economists have scaled back their estimates of the likelihood of a US recession following a better-than-expected jobs report and stronger business activity surveys. Many now think the US will narrowly dodge outright economic contraction.

John Maudlin in Outside the Box, agrees with Greenspan’s bearish case. John says, we are in a “sell in May and go away” summer.