In April, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson called the bottom in the financial sector. He said: “I think were closer to the end of the [credit crisis] than we are to the beginning.

“The Rude Awakening’s editorial director Eric Fry thinks Hank was way off the mark. Eric says financial stocks will by a buy one day, but he doesn’t believe we are looking at a bottom now.

In the second part of The End of Peak Greed, Eric says investors are better off putting their money into companies that are making the world go around than betting on financials, which are sending it not a tailspin.

But recent dismal results from the financial sector show us still that the bottom may not be in. Almost no one can buy a house these days. But almost everyone is eager to buy the shares of the companies that can’t sell the houses that nobody can buy. And I think that’s about all you need to know about the financial sector and the housing sector to know that we’re probably not at the bottom yet.

These financial stocks will be a buy one day, there’s no question about it. And maybe they are right now. I am not arrogant enough to say that I know. I mean, maybe this is the greatest buying opportunity of all time in the finance sector. It could be. And I mean that genuinely. But I don’t believe it is.

Any investor who is tempted to bottom-fish in the financial sector, should take a look at this chart:

It compares the Nikkei Index to the Topix Japanese Banking Index. You can see that the Topix Banking Index is down 80% from its high in 1989. That’s a very, very long time. Not only that, the index rallied around 40% to 60% seven times during that period. Seven different times investors believed that this index was recovering. And seven times, it did not.

One of the reasons is that during a period of de-leveraging, such as Japan suffered, equity disappears. Equity struggles. A lot of good things can happen to businesses; a lot of good things can happen to individuals; credit can flow again. It doesn’t mean equity is going to recover. Equity suffers. It goes away.

These things will be a buy someday. It’s just that I prefer to miss the first 20% of the upside. And I’d rather buy into something where I can see at least a sign of a rebound. So why not invest in the companies that are making the world go around, and are performing well, instead of the companies that are making the world go into a tailspin?t

Addison Wiggan and Ian Mathias in Agora’s 5 Min. Forecast are equally skeptical about U.S. banks’ financial health. This from yesterday’s edition:

Here’s another worrisome new trend in the financial sector: Two sovereign wealth funds just took a pass at purchasing a gigantic stake in Lehman Brothers. Rumors abound this morning that Lehman has been offering to sell 50% of itself to state-owned banks in China and South Korea. Both foreign investors balked at the last minute.

P.S. Read on here for the first part of Eric’s post on the U.S. financial sector: Avoid Bottom Fishing for Financials: It’s Way Too Risky

Source: The End of Peak Greed, Part II